023
FXUS61 KRLX 221719
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
119 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure promotes dry weather through midweek. Cool today,
then rebounding on Wednesday. A disturbance arrives late in the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure, under a clean H500 zonal flow will provide
dry and tranquil weather conditions through Wednesday. It could get
very dry Wednesday afternoon with relative humidity reaching the mid
to lower 20s. However, winds should be light, minimizing the fire
spread threat.

Skies will clear from west to east tonight, providing cooler
temperatures further west. Under calm flow, patchy river valley fog
may develop during the predawn hours. With relatively dry air in
place, lows are expected to be generally in the 40s, while highs on
Wednesday could reach the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into
the mid 60s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1154 AM Tuesday...

A ridge will persist over the eastern 1/3 of the country Thursday
with mild weather continuing for most of our area. Temperatures will
reach the lower 80s Thursday afternoon across the lowlands with the
mountains reaching the middle and upper 70s. A small chance of
garden-variety showers and thunderstorms will exist Thursday
afternoon, mainly over southern and western West Virginia,
southwest Virginia, and northeast Kentucky. This is where the
60+ degree dew points will be located, with the highest low-
level moisture mainly west of our area across central Kentucky.
NBM 6-hour prob thunder guidance shows a 30-40% contour across
western West Virignia, southwest Virginia, and northeast
Kentucky for 2 PM to 8 PM Thursday, which is not a very high
probability.

Shower and thunderstorms will become more widespread Friday as a
warm front lifts northward through the region. NBM prob thunder
guidance is still not very high Friday afternoon, but the 30-40%
contour is more expansive across West Virginia. The probability
of CAPE exceeding 500 J/kg Friday afternoon is 60-70%, the
probability of CAPE exceeding 800 J/kg is 40-50%, and the
probabilities of CAPE exceeding 1,000 J/kg are only 20% or less.
Because of this, we have some confidence that the risk of
severe weather will be low Friday. In addition, the risk of
flooding also appears low with the NBM only showing a 10-20%
probability of 1 inch of precipitation areawide from 8 AM Friday
through 8 AM Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1154 AM Tuesday...

A cold front will sweep through the region Saturday morning, and
rain will gradually end with clearing skies by the afternoon. At
this time, Sunday looks dry with high pressure centered over the
Northeast. Models are split regarding the setup for early next week,
with some solutions keeping a dry pattern into Monday, and others
bringing another frontal boundary nearby, which would reintroduce
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

High pressure at the surface, and a clean zonal flow aloft will
provide widespread VFR conditions through the end of period. Light
and variable winds with a northerly component, will become calm this
evening. Clear skies will spread from west to east this evening,
allowing for patchy dense fog at the most protected sites by early
Wednesday morning. VFR conditions will prevail on Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Dense fog may not materialize tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms late Thursday and again
Friday/Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ