791
FXUS61 KRLX 182327
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
627 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain will continue through tonight. Low chances for
rain showers Wednesday and Thursday. Better chances of
precipitation arrive late Friday night into Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 PM Tuesday...

Reduced evening and overnight temperatures based on current
observed trends. While some modest low level warm advection will
continue this evening, limited recovering is expected with
continued precipitation.

As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

Strong (H500) mid level disturbance crosses the area west to east,
spreading showers and few storms this afternoon and evening. This
system will provide synoptic lift under abundant moisture with PWATs
about 1.25 inches (+2sd from climatology). With deep layered shear
about 55 knots, and helicity exceeding 400 m2/s2, SPC maintains
the area highlighted under a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms. However, SBCAPE is limited, with MUCAPE under 400
J/kg by this afternoon. The main threat may be occasional
lightning and brief damaging wind gusts. Latest CAMs guidance
shows few lines of convection developing across the Tri- state
area (OH/KY/WV) by late afternoon and evening. Lingering showers
may gradually exit east of the Appalachians by midnight. About
1 inch of rain accumulation can be expected with this system
through early Wednesday morning.

Areas of fog and widespread low status clouds most likely develop
behind the system overnight tonight, continuing with low stratus on
Wednesday.

Tonight`s temperatures will be not as chilly as last night,
generally in the mid to upper 40s across the southern coalfields,
ranging into the 30s northeast mountains and northern SE Ohio.
Wednesday afternoon will see about 5 degrees warmer than normal,
generally in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

Relatively dry Wednesday night and Thursday as a nearly stationary
frontal boundary meanders over the area under a zonal flow aloft.
Just a 20-25% PoP was coded. A slow warming trend is expected during
this period with highs about 10 degrees warmer than normal by
Thursday.

Chances for rain arrive Thursday night ahead of the next southern
stream upper level disturbance passes by. Guidance suggests likely
(60-70% PoPs) chances for rain Thursday night into Friday, becoming
categorical (80-90% PoPs) as the system cross over Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

Precipitation gradually exits east of the Appalachians Saturday
night into Sunday, providing drier conditions during the first half
of the new working week.

General guidance suggests high pressure building over the area by
Sunday with a couple of dry cold fronts, reinforcing dry conditions
through the middle of next week.

Afternoon temperatures will remain slightly above normal for this
time of the year, generally in the lower 60s across the lowlands,
ranging into the mid 40s northeast mountains. Lows will be in
the chilly side, expecting mostly clear nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 PM Tuesday...

Period of rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue this
evening before exiting east overnight. IFR/LIFR stratus and/or
fog is expected to develop in the wake of the departing
precipitation heading into Wednesday morning.

Winds remain mainly light except gusty and erratic near any
thunderstorms or heavier precipitation. Marginal low level wind
shear conditions will exist this evening, mainly at BKW/EKN
before the low level jet weakens overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Conditions around locally heavier embedded
precipitation may see large fluctuations this evening.
AMD for additional thunderstorm coverage may be necessary this
evening.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible Thursday morning under dense fog.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JP