604
FXUS61 KRLX 291812
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
212 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A pleasant end to the work week week gives way to increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Robust cumulus field will dissipate this evening with loss of
heating and passage of weak disturbance embedded within the
upper level trof. Still can`t rule out a spotty shower closer
to the mountains, but this should be isolated in coverage at
worst.

Expect some dense river valley overnight though extent is in
question given lack of a strong low-level inversion and a
lingering puff in the lower boundary layer. Overnight lows will
drop into the 50 for most locations.

Weak surface high builds across the region Thursday and Friday
with comfortable humidity and seasonable temperatures. Expect
another diurnally driven cumulus field tomorrow, aided by
subtle disturbances rotating southward on the back side of the
upper level trof.

Unsettled weather returns for the weekend courtesy of an upper
level trof pivoting southeast into the Ohio Valley. This will
allow for clouds to increase Friday night into Saturday with
showers and perhaps some storms arriving Saturday afternoon. The
trof axis will gradually close in on the area Sunday with
rain chances abundant during the day. There remains
uncertainty with just how progressive the trof axis is with
some model solutions advertising this axis lingers over the area
into Monday. This will ultimately determine the risk for excessive
rainfall with WPC currently highlighting a marginal risk over
parts of the area. This is something that will need to be
monitored over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly low end VFR cumulus field across the terminals this
afternoon will dissipate this evening. An isolated shower cannot
be ruled out closer to the mountains late this afternoon.

River valley fog is expected to develop overnight. However, a
lack of a low-level inversion and lingering flow in the
boundary layer may keep IFR or worse conditions confined to EKN
and CRW. This is where confidence is highest to include a
mention in the TAFs for this issuance.

Any river valley fog will lift by 15Z with VFR conditions
prevailing thereafter amid some afternoon cumulus.

Generally northwest surface winds 5 to 10 kts with some gusts
15 to 20 kts this afternoon. Winds slacken this evening and
become more north-northwesterly Thursday but remaining light.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog tonight may be more widespread than
currently depicted in the TAFs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR conditions in showers and/or storms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...30
AVIATION...30