688
FXUS61 KRLX 231724
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1224 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through Monday with moderating temperatures. There is a
chance for light precipitation on Tuesday, and then a better
chance for precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Sunday...

Quiet conditions continue through the near term period.

A moisture starved mid-level trough may yield some mid-level
cloudiness overnight tonight, with little else in the way of
sensible weather expected.

Southwesterly flow increases Monday in response to surface low
pressure crossing Hudson Bay. Associated warm advection will be
rather weak. It looks like flow will begin to increase after
daybreak, so shouldn`t see the ridgetops starting to warm up too
much in the predawn hours. For now, have set a fairly weak
ridge/valley split. With weak warm advection should see
temperatures climbing from the mid 20s Monday morning to the
lower to mid 50s by Monday afternoon.

Forecast profiles are fairly dry up through H500 Monday afternoon,
but no significantly drier layer near the top of the boundary layer
is noted. Did reduce central guidance afternoon dew points slightly
based on mixing into drier, but not super dry air aloft, with
afternoon RH values falling into 30s. Despite the weak warm
advection, will see some degree of mixing of higher momentum air to
the surface with gusts 10 to 15 mph across the south and 20 to 25
mph across the north Monday afternoon where gradients are tightest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Key Points:
* Dry through Monday.
* Disturbance brings a chance of light rain Tuesday.
* Gradual warming trend continues.

The work week starts out dry and mild, though high pressure slowly
shifts to the east. Daytime temperatures should reach 40s in the
higher elevations of the northeast mountains while the rest of the
area is expected to warm into the 50s.

A chance of precipitation accompanies a shortwave across the area on
Tuesday, then moisture erodes as the disturbance continues toward
the Atlantic Coast Tuesday night. While mild temperatures will
support rain as the dominant precipitation type for the majority of
the area, a mix of rain and snow is possible for the northeast
mountains. Precipitation amounts will be light.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Sunday...

High pressure right over the forecast area Wednesday morning
sets up a dry Wednesday, with a chilly morning followed by a
much milder afternoon, as the warming trend that started this
weekend peaks.

A southern stream short wave trough crosses late Wednesday night
through Thursday. It may be able to tap a bit more moisture than
its early week predecessor. However, even as high pressure to
the south and east weakens and exits, light low level south to
southwest flow ahead of the associated surface low pressure
system will tap minimal Gulf moisture. While precipitation may
be more widepsread compared with Tuesday, amounts will be light.

The chance for thunder with this system appears small, given a
morning frontal passage and a dearth of moisture, as suggested
by surface dew points only climbing into the mid 40s ahead of
it. The GFS does get dew points up into the lower 50s ahead of
the surface cold front, but that occurs during the overnight
hours Wednesday night. In the wake of the cold front, snow
showers are possible, at least in the mountains, by Thursday
night, before precipitation ends Friday morning.

After high pressure of Pacific origin pays a brief visit on
Friday, a northern stream mid/upper-level short wave trough
drives a cold front through the area Saturday into Saturday
night, with the chance for showers, mainly in and near the
mountains, possibly snow showers across the higher mountainous
terrain.

The weekend finishes dry but colder on Sunday, as high pressure
of arctic origin builds in.

After the warming trend to start the long term period,
temperatures drop back to normal to end the work week amid air
of Pacific origin behind the cold front, but then climb back
above normal ahead of the next cold front on Saturday. Models
diverge on the amplification of the mid/upper-level short wave
trough pushing through next weekend, and thus the southward
extent of the cold air. Either way, the modified air mass is not
likely to bring more then a modestly cold finish to the
weekend, in contrast to what was experienced in the area last
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected through the period with passing mid-
level clouds overnight and again Monday afternoon.

Winds generally light through Monday morning, then increasing from
the southwest, 5-10KTs with gusts up to 20KTs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EST 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in precipitation by the middle of
the week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JP