018
FXUS61 KRLX 050558
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
158 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier again tonight, starting the weekend with above normal
temperatures. Cold front with showers and storms Sunday evening.
Dry and much cooler for the upcoming workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 720 PM Friday...

A dry cold front exits east of the Appalachians during the
overnight hours. Dewpoints from the mid 50s into the upper 40s
are already filtering in across northern portions of southeast
OH and northern WV under north to northwest flow. This will
result in a couple of degrees cooler than previously thought.
Therefore, lowered MinT grids few degrees for tonight. Winds
will become calm tonight as the lower atmosphere decouples. Rest
of forecast remains on track.

As of 113 PM Friday...

A cold front will move through the area later today and this
evening, progged to be east of the mountains by late tonight or
early Saturday. A pre-frontal tough passing through the area today,
will help to generate isolated showers and storms across the
south/mountains, with generally dry conditions expected elsewhere.
Fog is expected to develop across the area again tonight, mainly
confined to favored/sheltered river valleys, and generally
late/towards early morning hours. Saturday looks to generally be
dry, and mild, with ample sunshine, and high temperatures topping
out in the mid to upper 70s, with a few spots in the lower 80s in
the lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Saturday...

Cold front pushes through our area Sunday into Sunday night bringing
chances for showers and storms, primarily across our WV and OH
counties, where SPC also has a marginal risk for severe weather as
well for primarily instances of damaging winds and perhaps isolated
large hail, given some stronger upper flow and modest instability.
CAMs show a broken line of convection moving into SE Ohio around 22-
23z, giving us our best chance at the potential for severe weather
as the line quickly moves east with the front across the area. Some
isolated storms may develop out ahead of this feature as well,
though. Precipitation chances should diminish significantly by 6z
Monday as the cold front pushes east of the area.

High temperatures Sunday should range from the low to mid 80`s
across the lowlands to the upper 60`s to mid 70`s across the
mountains. Low temperatures Sunday night will be generally in the
mid 40`s to low 50`s across the board. It will be seasonably cooler
and much drier, with high temperatures around 70 across the
lowlands and the mid 50`s to mid 60`s across our mountains. Low
temperatures will be even cooler Monday night with lows
generally in the low 40`s across the area with some mid to upper
30`s possible in the mountains. Some spots in the mountains may
end up colder, which could lead to patchy frost developing
Monday night.

Breezy conditions are also likely after the frontal passage
overnight Sunday into Monday as cold air advection shifts us to a
northwest flow, ushering in much cooler air. Wind gusts should
generally be in the 10-15 mph range across the lowlands with gusts
as high as 25 mph possible in the mountains, diminishing with time
throughout the day Monday.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 AM Saturday...

A ridge will be firmly in place over the area at the start of the
long term period, persisting through the end of the week. This will
lead to dry and cooler weather with the potential for some patchy
frost each night, mainly across the mountains. The best chance for
this appears to be Wednesday night where temperatures have the
potential to be the coldest. High temperatures throughout the week
will generally be in the mid 60`s to low 70`s with low to mid 50`s
across the mountains. Low temperatures will also be fairly uniform
each night with low temperatures in the upper 30`s to low 40`s
across the lowlands and mid to upper 30`s across the mountains, with
some cooler spots possible as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 AM Saturday...

Cold front remains to our east currently with high pressure
filling in behind it from the north. Dry weather will remain
through the period as a result.

IFR/LIFR river valley fog will once again be on the table,
mostly affecting EKN, CRW and PKB. CKB and HTS may see some
MVFR/IFR restrictions close to sunrise around ~12-13z, but will
largely remain unaffected through the morning. Any fog should
dissipate around ~13-14z this morning with VFR taking over for
the remainder of the day.

Winds will be calm overnight, then pick up out of the NNE by
mid-morning light in speed.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location and intensity of fog
formation may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 10/05/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
River valley fog is expected Sunday morning which could result
in IFR/LIFR restrictions for some spots. Showers/storms late
Sunday afternoon into the night could result in brief IFR
conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...

September 2024 - Warm Amid a Wide Range in Precipitation Totals

Compared to the 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, it was a warm
September across the vast majority of the forecast area, with
mean temperatures for much of the area ending up 1 to 4 degrees
(Fahrenheit) above normal, with a few locations trending closer
to normal. In terms of precipitation, the first two-thirds of
the month was extremely dry across much of the forecast area, so
much so that some locations were on pace to potentially near
the mark for their driest September on record. For instance,
Charleston, WV had only received 0.09 inches of precipitation
through the 22nd of September! This quickly changed, however, in
the last third of the month given that it was quite wet,
particularly across southwest VA, southern WV and extending
northeast along the mountains, as well as in northeast KY and
far southern OH. Multiple rounds of rain would affect the forecast
area during this timeframe, with the most significant event
being associated with the remnants of Hurricane Helene and a
corresponding Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in advance of the
main circulation, with the greatest impacts occurring across the
aforementioned areas. Given such, total precipitation for the
month of September varied significantly across the forecast
area, ranging from less than 2 inches across some locations in
the central/northern portion of the CWA (equating to departures
of 1 to 2 inches), while totals of 4 to 8 inches were observed
along the periphery of this region and also across all of the
southern portion of the CWA, with greater than 10 inches observed
at some locations in southwest VA. This equated to surpluses of
2 to 7 inches for the month in portions of the aforementioned
areas. For the sake of comparison, Charleston, WV only received
1.84 inches of precipitation throughout September, while one of
our Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) locations in southwest
VA (located just southeast of Nora in Dickenson County) only
about 100 miles to the southwest received 10.29 inches, which is
nearly 7 inches above what is normal there for September!

No top 10s were set at any of the official NWS RLX climate locations
this September in terms of mean temperature or total precipitation.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...28/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...28/RPY
LONG TERM...28/RPY
AVIATION...LTC

CLIMATE...GW