501
FXUS61 KRLX 230609
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
109 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today. A system approaches Tuesday,
bringing the next chance for widespread rain. Turning much
colder and breezy, but dry for Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

Current satellite imagery and surface observations indicate
a break in the clouds between departing stratocumulus deck and
another stratocumulus deck associated with a cold
front/prefrontal trough. In areas where skies have cleared and
winds remain light, radiational cooling has allowed temperatures
to drop toward the dewpoint, resulting in mainly valley fog
formation.

Through daybreak, the primary forecast challenge is the
competition between radiational fog development and turbulent
mixing associated with an approaching prefrontal trough and dry
cold front. As the boundary nears from the northwest, the
pressure gradient will tighten, introducing enough boundary
layer stirring to likely disperse fog across the northwestern
half of the forecast area and this trend should continue.
However, sheltered river valleys across these area could hold
onto the fog once it develops.

Following the frontal passage this morning, deep mixing is
expected to tap into stronger flow aloft. Model soundings
indicate a mixed layer extending to near 850mb, where winds are
forecast to be 20-25KTs. Momentum transfer will result in
breezy westerly surface winds developing by late morning, with
gusts of 20 to 25 mph common across the lowlands and perhaps
slightly higher along the ridges. Cold advection behind the
front will be offset by insolation, allowing high temperatures
to reach the mid 50s in the lowlands, with 40s in the
mountains this afternoon.

High pressure settles directly overhead tonight. With the
pressure gradient relaxing and skies remaining mostly clear,
conditions will be ideal for strong radiational cooling. This
setup favors the development widespread river valley fog with
some also likely expanding outside of the valleys. While central
guidance often struggles with the extent of cold air drainage
in these scenarios, expect overnight lows to drop into the 30s,
with the coldest hollows likely dipping into the upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

High pressure shifts east of the mountains on Monday, initiating
return flow. While the day will remain dry with highs generally
in the 50s and 60s, clouds will begin to increase from the
west/southwest late in the day.

Precipitation chances return early Tuesday as a shortwave trough
ejecting from the Southern Rockies interacts with a northern
stream disturbance. A tightening pressure gradient will induce
a 40-50KT low-level jet at H850, with its nose across the
Middle Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning. This feature will drive
strong moisture transport and isentropic ascent over the
retreating cool dome. Consequently, periods of rain are expected
to overspread the area from southwest to northeast Tuesday
morning and persist into the evening.

While kinematics are impressive, instability looks negligible,
limiting the thunder potential. Rainfall amounts should remain
manageable, generally under an half an inch. A cold front
associated with this lead wave will cross Tuesday night. This
boundary appears fairly weak and diffuse, likely stalling or
washing out nearby as attention turns to the upstream kicker
trough. Temperatures Tuesday will be mild, aided by the strong
warm advection, with highs reaching the 60s for many lowland
locations despite the clouds and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

A secondary, more potent cold front associated with a deep upper
trough digging into the central U.S. will sweep through the area
on Wednesday. This boundary will be more meridional and will
mark the leading edge of a substantially colder continental
polar airmass. While some lingering showers are possible with
the frontal passage, moisture availability will be compromised
by the preceding system, keeping any QPF light.

Behind the front, H850 temperatures are forecast to plunge,
supporting high confidence in a much colder pattern for
Thanksgiving Day. High temperatures on Thursday will likely
struggle to exit the lower 40s in the lowlands and will remain
below freezing in the highest elevations. When combined with
blustery northwesterly winds gusting 20-25 mph, wind chill
values will likely remain in the 20s and 30s for most of the
holiday.

Parcel trajectories behind the front on Thursday appear too
westerly to support a robust Great Lakes moisture connection,
suggesting a largely dry forecast. By Friday, surface high
pressure begins to build into the Lower Ohio Valley. Boundary
layer flow may veer slightly more north-northwesterly, which
could theoretically support some isolated lake-enhanced flurries
across the far northern counties.

Temperatures will moderate slightly heading into the weekend as
heights build aloft ahead of the next potential system emerging
from the Southern Rockies early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

A complex fog forecast initiates the period. Radiational cooling
under clearing skies is promoting rapid fog development at KPKB, KCKB
and KEKN, where LIFR conditions are currently observed or
imminent. However, a dry cold front approaching from the
northwest is increasing the pressure gradient. This will likely
induce enough boundary layer mixing to disperse fog at KCKB and
KPKB prior to the typical diurnal burn-off, likely between 09Z
and 12Z. At KHTS and KCRW, patchy fog has developed in the
valley, but is questionable whether it will make it up onto the
fields before additional clouds/increasing gradient arrives.

By 14Z, VFR conditions should prevail area-wide with mixing.
This will transport stronger momentum to the surface, resulting
in gusty westerly winds, 8-10KTs gusting into the upper teens or
lower 20s.

Winds will decouple quickly after 00Z Monday as high
pressure settles in. This will set the stage for widespread
dense valley fog Sunday night, with LIFR conditions likely
developing at EKN, CRW, PKB, and CKB after 06Z Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium, dense fog may develop for a few
hours and dissipate heading into daybreak. High after 14Z.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could be more or less dense than
advertised this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 11/23/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with valley fog Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP