812
FXUS61 KRLX 262314
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
614 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cool into Wednesday. A system brings rain Wednesday
night, followed by mountain snow showers into Friday. Bitterly
cold this weekend with light snow possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 515 PM Tuesday...
No changes necessary at this point.

As of 120 PM Tuesday...

High pressure brings dry weather and mostly sunny skies for the
rest of the day, while breezes gradually weaken. For tonight,
high pressure travels beneath zonal upper level flow and
sustains dry conditions across the area, though some clouds
may start drifting into the area. Cloud cover then continues to
increase throughout the day Wednesday as high pressure retreats
to the east and a low approaches from the southwest. This
system eventually spreads low end chances of precipitation into
the western part of the CWA late in the day.

Low temperatures are projected to dip into the mid 20s to 30s
tonight. Wednesday then remains seasonably cool, with highs
ranging from 40s to 50s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

High pressure continues its egress as an upper-level trough
approaches from the west. This system will trudge through
Thursday making for a wet Thanksgiving. Temperatures will still
remain mild, yet cooler than previous days. Highs in the
lowlands will be in the mid to high 40s, with the mountains
ranging anywhere from the upper 30s to around 50.

Rain will be traversing the area from west to east Wednesday
night with a an isolated rumble of thunder or two possible as
there will be some CAPE present. Rain-snow mix is possible late
Wednesday night/Thursday morning for elevations above 4,000 feet
as temperatures approach freezing, but it will still be a bit
too warm for accumulations.

Rain will be the primary precipitation type on Thanksgiving,
with most locations picking up between a tenth and a quarter of
an inch of rainfall. The higher end of said range will be
observed across the mountains and the lower end across the Mid-
Ohio Valley. Rain-snow mix looks to start in the afternoon for
elevations above 3,500 feet, but accumulations will be hard
pressed at first as surfaces will be too wet and temperatures
not quite cold enough.

Temperatures will start to drop off rather quickly overnight
with most locations falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s
early Friday morning. A change over from rain to snow will occur
across the mountains/foothills, northern lowlands and portions
of SE Ohio. The mountains could pick up a few tenths of an inch
of snow. Travel could be dicey and slick across these locations
Thursday night into Friday. Some freezing rain may mix in at
times across the mountains and SE Ohio, but not looking at much
for impacts or ice accumulations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Tuesday...

High pressure to our west will start to creep in on Friday with a
closed low over Canada forcing a longwave trough overhead at
500MB. Closed low over Ontario/Quebec will continue to swirl
about to our north into next week. This feature will drive
multiple longwave disturbances through the central and eastern
CONUS through the weekend and even next week. Winter`s message
will be starkly felt in our area from Friday into next week
with very cold to bitterly cold temperatures and even some light
snowfall expected.

For Friday, upslope snow showers will continue in the mountains
with some additional light accumulations likely. Rain-snow mix
will be likely in the lower elevations, but snow showers will be
more common in the morning. Accumulation in the lowlands is
also possible, but mostly for the foothills near the mountains;
locations such as Clarksburg, Flatwoods and Buckhannon could see
a few tenths of an inch on the ground Friday morning. Snow
showers with light accumulation will be skewed to the
northeastern mountains of WV by Friday evening. Snow will taper
off early Saturday. Winds across the high terrain of the
northeastern mountains will be gusty Friday afternoon into
Saturday, but at this time look to be below advisory criteria.

A disturbance from a secondary wave aloft will allow for
another shot of light snow across the area Saturday evening into
Sunday. Guidance still varies with the outcome; GFS shows a
stronger disturbance than the euro, but all predict some light
snowfall across the area. Chances for snow stick around into
Monday, though mostly across the mountains, with higher chances
returning on Tuesday with another wave taking aim at the area.

Temperatures will be noticeably and rudely colder for the
weekend into next week with polar air moving in on Friday. High
temperatures in the low to mid 30s will be common across the
lowlands, while the mountains will remain in the 20s. Sunday and
Monday look to be the coldest days with some locations above
3,500 feet remaining in the teens. Overnight lows in the teens
and 20s will be observed starting Friday night through Tuesday
night. That said, will have to keep an eye on wind chills Friday
night into Saturday, as well as next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 610 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions expected for the TAF period, with light winds.
There could be some patchy MVFR river valley fog overnight, but
confidence is low, and elected to keep it out of the TAFs for
now. Precipitation associated with the next system will move
into the area towards the end or shortly after the current TAF
period, and should primarily be in the form of rain. Will see a
gradual deterioration of conditions shortly after 00Z Thursday
in precipitation.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog. Otherwise, high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could develop overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR ceilings possible in precipitation late Wednesday and
Thursday, and in lingering low stratus on Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL/JLB
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...SL