626
FXUS61 KRLX 200906
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
506 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flash flood watch issued for parts of the Ohio Valley.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with a threat
of flash flooding overnight into Thursday.

2) A disturbance brings addition showers and thunderstorms on
Friday.

3) Yet another cold front pushes through on Saturday and
Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front will push through the area overnight and Thursday,
providing more showers and thunderstorms. Models are showing
precipitable water values over 2 inches in some places along the
front. In addition, the overall mean flow aligns with the
frontal boundary as a low moves along the front, potentially
allowing for repeated convection to form along it. That combined
with the already saturated ground means that flash flooding
will continue to be a possibility. Meso models indicate that the
biggest threat will be across central Ohio and northern West
Virginia where there is currently a Flood Watch. Will continue
to monitor the rest of the area, as any training of
thunderstorms could cause flash flooding.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Models are showing an upper air disturbance moving across the
area on Friday. This will allow for some showers and
thunderstorms, more likely over the mountains. Of particular
concern for flash flooding is the FV3 which shows some
bullseyes of over 2 inches in or near the mountains.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

Yet another cold front will push through the region on Saturday
and Saturday night, allowing for another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Models are currently showing precipitable water
values peaking around 1.5 inches. This would work against a
flash flood threat, but if an area gets precipitation on
Thursday and Friday and Saturday, then could not rule out some
problems.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A cold front will push through the area today, providing
restrictions in showers and thunderstorms. Even away from
precipitation, MVFR ceilings can also be expected at times.

Conditions should return to VFR this evening. Depending on the
amount of clouds tonight, some fog could form.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of storms today could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 08/20/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon/evening Friday through Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ009>011-019-
     020-031-032.
OH...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-084-085.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY