606
FXUS61 KRLX 201025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
625 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses south this afternoon and evening through
Monday morning. Locally heavy showers and storms over
increasingly compromised soils may lead to flash flooding. There
is a chance for strong to severe storms today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM Sunday...

Satellite imagery shows widespread low status across the area
early this morning. Expect these clouds to lift or dissipate by
mid morning. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 230 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

 * A cold front crosses this afternoon and evening over a summer
   juicy and unstable atmosphere.

 * Very heavy downpours or repetitive storms over the same areas will
   result in flash flooding of creeks, streams, streets,
   low lying and poor drainage areas.

 * A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for SE OH, NE KY and most of
   the WV lowlands through Monday morning.

A moisture-rich and highly unstable airmass will remain entrenched
across West Virginia and the middle Ohio Valley through tonight.
Meanwhile, a cold front arrives from the north this afternoon,
leading to a continued threat of showers and thunderstorms.

Models are in strong agreement on the presence of a tropical
airmass, with PWATs around 2.0 inches through this evening. Moderate
to high bouyancy with SBCAPE exceeding 3200 J/Kg, under modest deep
layered shear values about 30 to 45 knots points to a very unstable
environment capable of supporting strong to severe
thunderstorms. The primary threat under a summer juicy airmass
is heavy downpours conducive to flash flooding. But strong to
severe storms may produce damaging winds and hail. SPC
highlighted portions of the area under a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms. WPC keeps most of the area highlighted under a
Slight Risk for Excessive rainfall. Showers and storms activity
will continue across the south (along and south of the front) as
a mid- level shortwave rides over the boundary tonight.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will move across over nearly
saturated soils leading to the potential for flash flooding.
Therefore, decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for SE OH, NE KY and
most of the WV lowlands from this afternoon through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

 * Drier weather conditions will return next week.

 * Heat index values exceeding 100 degree mark Thursday and
   Friday may require Heat Advisories.

The cold front crosses slowly south Sunday night, stalling south of
the area by Monday morning. This may bring a significant change in
airmass north of the front under north to northwesterly flow. Much
drier and slightly cooler airmass will move in behind the front into
the entire middle OH Valley and most of WV through Monday and Monday
night. Lingering clouds or a stray shower may be possible early
Monday, especially across our far southern coalfields near the
stalled front.

Rapid clearing and much more pleasant conditions are expected to
develop through the day Monday. High confidence exists in a stretch
of dry and pleasant weather for the middle of the week. Surface high
pressure will build in from the northwest in the wake of Monday`s
frontal passage, leading to widespread subsidence and a stable
airmass. This will shut off any precipitation chances for Tuesday
and Wednesday. Expect mostly clear skies, significant lower
humidity, and higher temperatures near seasonal averages. Lows will
be noticeable more comfortable, dipping into the upper 50s and low
60s for many locations.

High pressure prevails Tuesday through Friday providing mostly dry
weather conditions. Plenty of sunshine will allow afternoon
temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s Thursday and Friday. With
dewpoints rising into the lower 70s, expect heat index values to
exceed the 100 degree F mark. Heat advisories may be needed for
both days if the pattern materializes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Another cold front will approach from the north during the end of
the week returning chances for showers and storms to the area. The
heat will remain in place with high temperatures reaching the low to
mid 90s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 620 AM Sunday...

Satellite imagery and METARs show MVFR ceilings under low
stratus affecting most terminals early this morning. Expect
these clouds to gradually lift or dissipate by 13-15Z, into VFR
conditions. However, convection is expected to develop once
again under a summer juicy and unstable environment. In
addition, a cold front approaches from the north this afternoon
or evening to interact with the unstable atmosphere. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms may develop under west to
northwest flow aloft. This pattern could produce strong to
severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the main threat.
Expect brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions under heavier
showers or storms Sunday afternoon and evening. Coded TEMPO and
PROB30 groups to time thunderstorms. Strong convection may
continue this evening depending on the position of the cold
front.

Light west southwest winds early on Sunday will veer to west
northwest by this afternoon. Strong to damaging winds will be
possible nearby stronger thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening could vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SUN 07/20/25
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday
     morning for WVZ005>009-013>017-024>026.
OH...Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday
     morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday
     morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ