098
FXUS61 KRLX 170934
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
534 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

No significant changes were made to the forecast package at
this time. PoPs were increased in coverage slightly for the area
today to account for a frontal boundary promoting shower and
thunderstorm potential. Temperatures and dewpoints were
slightly lowered due to cloud coverage and smokey conditions
expected along with following yesterdays trends/observations.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and hazy today with smoke from distant wildfires also
possible through evening. Slightly better chances for
showers and thunderstorms exists during the day today.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive on
Saturday along with chances for severe thunderstorm activity.
Flash flooding will be possible through Saturday along with a
risk for damaging wind gusts, hail and/or tornadoes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A frontal boundary will affect the area today along with a weak
low pressure system which will promote shower and thunderstorm
chances across much of the area. There will be slight chance to
chance probabilities of a shower or storm this afternoon and
into the evening. Coverage of thunderstorm activity should be
isolated, however activity along the frontal boundary could
promote some scattered activity. Thunderstorms and showers will
move slowly today with steering flow around 20KTs or less which
will mean there could be instances of isolated flooding,
especially if activity trains along the frontal boundary due to
steering flow being almost parallel to the boundary.

Thunderstorms should stay in the general category, however they
could pose that potential for flash flooding, especially in low
lying or flood prone areas that may get hit repeatedly. PWATs
are anomalously high for this time of year around the 99th
percentile or 2 standard deviations above normal. Heavy
downpours could cause gusty wind but below severe criteria and
downburst potential will help create heavy showers along with
high DCAPE values and water loaded soundings closer to the
frontal boundary.

Temperatures were dropped a few degrees from central guidance
due to expected cloud coverage and smoke/haze in the atmosphere
which should suppress some of the daytime heating today that
central guidance did not pick up on. This will place heat
indexes under the 100 degree mark for advisory criteria,
therefore no headlines were needed at this time. It will still
feel hot and muggy out with dewpoints in the low 70s and that
low pressure system promoting a lot of moisture in the column
along with weak boundary layer flow making it feel very muggy
out. Temperatures will start to fall back down to more
comfortable values starting Saturday/Sunday and will continue
into the new work week.

The air quality will be low today for the northern half of West
Virginia along with our southeast Ohio area due to the smoke
from Canadian wildfires advecting in from the north. The HRRR
smoke model supports this along with very high particle
pollutants creating a smokey and unpleasant air outside. An Air
quality alert is in effect for the northern half of West
Virginia and southeast Ohio in our CWA until midnight tonight.
These pollution concentrations within our region are unhealthy
for the general population and should be avoided by minimizing
outdoor activities, especially for sensitive groups such as
children, the elderly and people suffering from asthma, heart
disease, or lung diseases.

For more information please visit the Ohio Environmental
Protection Agency`s website at epa.ohio.gov and West Virginia`s
Departmental of Environmental Protection Air Quality Division
website at https://www.airnow.gov.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Starting Saturday, the area will under a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms for much of the area and also a marginal for
excessive rainfall threat for much of the area. This is due to
an upper level trough with multiple shortwaves forecast to move
through the base of the trough on Saturday and Sunday. A
surface front will traverse north through the area and keep us
in a destabilized warm sector for which severe weather will be
possible. Strong low level flow will promote organized cells or
clusters capable of damaging wind and with enough MUCAPE and
EBWD along with a large hail parameter of 4.0 will also promote
isolated hail.

A tornado threat will also exist with enough EBWD, helicity,
low 100mb mean parcel LCLs and enough CAPE with the lack of CIN
depending on storm-mode evolution. Another threat will be
possible flash flooding with PWATs anomalously high once again
for the region and efficient DCAPE values along with the
potential for downbursts. Heavy downpours will be likely in
stronger thunderstorm activity which will likely create some
instances of flash flooding, especially in low lying or flood
prone areas or if training or backbuilding occurs.

More potential for thunderstorms will reside on Sunday, however
coverage will be a lot less for the area as unsettled weather
exits for the rest of Sunday and settled weather will continue
into the new work week. Another upper level trough is expected
to affect the area by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Valley fog will has formed at every site this morning and will
burn off by 13z. After the fog, low clouds will prevail today
along with a frontal boundary and low pressure system that will
promote light and variable wind and low to mid clouds. Smoke and
haze will invade the northern terminals with MVFR VIS
restrictions for the duration of the daytime. This should not
affect the southern terminals. At times, VIS restrictions may
become IFR in HZ, however should just be temporary. A
thunderstorm could affect a site today with VIS restrictions
under a heavier shower. Valley fog will once again become likely
late tonight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions
this morning with fog could vary slightly from the forecast.
VIS restrictions in HZ/FU may vary at PKB/CKB/EKN this
afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Patchy river valley fog Saturday morning could cause IFR or
worse restrictions to VIS/CIGs. IFR conditions are also
possible with showers/storms Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ006>011-
     014>020-027>032-039-040-525-526.
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ