180
FXUS61 KRLX 220241
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1041 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides mainly dry weather through the rest of
the work week amid a warming trend. Unsettled conditions return
for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1040 PM Monday...

The Flood Watch was allowed to expire at 10 PM as the flooding
threat has ended across the entirety of the CWA, with just a
few isolated showers possible over the next couple of hours
across southwest VA and far southern WV. This gives way to a dry
and seasonably cool overnight with low temperatures ranging
from the mid 50s to mid 60s across the CWA. Valley fog develops
overnight, particularly southeast of the Ohio River across the
river valleys and in locations that received heavy rain
today/yesterday. Northeast flow dry advection regime overnight
will help curtail fog development to an extent, but for the time
being, did code fog into the overnight forecast for most of the
typical fog prone locations, although fog development could end
up being a bit less than anticipated. The rest of the forecast
remains on track.

As of 720 PM Monday...

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two continue
to slowly progresses southward across far southern WV and our
southwest VA zones, focused along the surface cold front. This
trend will continue through the evening, with locally heavy rain
possible with slow-moving showers, up to 1-2"/hr in isolated
locations. Given such, isolated instances of flash flooding
remain possible. A slight extension in time until 10 PM was made
to the Flash Flood Watch for these zones, with all other zones
further north canceled early. PoPs, cloud cover, and the chance
for thunderstorms has been updated through early tonight.

As of 350 PM Monday...

Have canceled the Flood Watch early for our northwest zones
(southern OH, northeast KY, and west central WV) based off
radar and satellite trends. The Flood Watch further south
remains in effect until 8 PM, where an isolated instance or two
of flash flooding cannot entirely be ruled out. The rest of the
forecast remains on track.

As of 125 PM Monday...

Key Messages:

* A cold front sinks south across the region this afternoon,
  isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing heavy rain are
  possible near this feature

* Drier and more pleasant conditions will arrive for Tuesday and
  Wednesday as surface high pressure builds in from the north

* Much warmer mid-week with increasing humidity, may approach
  heat advisory criteria over portions of the lower elevations

A lingering frontal boundary draped across the area will be the
catalyst for scattered convective development this afternoon
and evening. Analysis of the proximity soundings south of the
front reveals a tropically influenced, characterized by
precipitable water values near 1.85 inches. As diurnal heating
further destabilizes the atmosphere, MLCAPE values are expected
to approach 1000-1500 J/kg across the southern CWA.

Analysis of regional soundings and forecast profiles indicate deep-
layer bulk shear will remain limited to 25-30 kts. This weak shear
profile will constrain storm organization primarily to pulse and
multicell modes. The primary threat from this activity will be
locally heavy rainfall. The combination of high PWAT values, a
deeply saturated profile and slow storm motions will support highly
efficient rainfall rates, potentially exceeding 1-2 inches per hour,
although downpours this heavy should be relatively sparse. The
ground south of the Metro Valley remains locally extremely saturated
from heavy rainfall last night with rainfall of around 1 inch in 3
hours sufficient to get small streams out for of their bank based on
RFC flash flood guidance. Will continue the flash flood watch for
now given highly compromised soils, although issues are expected to
be isolated at best - will probably able to drop the watch a little
earlier than the current 8 PM expiration time.

Convection will wane after sunset as diurnal instability decreases.
Skies will gradually clear from north to south overnight behind the
departing front. With light winds and clearing skies, conditions
will be favorable for radiational cooling and the development of
valley fog, which could become dense in some locations by sunrise
Tuesday. Low temperatures will fall into the comfortable low to mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

A period of tranquil weather is expected for the middle of the week
as surface high pressure becomes established over the region. On
Tuesday, subsidence aloft and a drier airmass filtering in from the
north will result in mostly sunny skies and comfortable humidity
levels. Dew points will fall into the upper 50s and low 60s. High
temperatures will be seasonable, generally in the mid to upper 80s.

By Wednesday, the center of the surface high will shift eastward off
the Atlantic coast. This will initiate a southerly return flow,
gradually advecting warmer and more humid air back into the Ohio
Valley. While conditions will remain dry, temperatures will climb
into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

Warming continues Thursday as a mid-level ridge amplifies over
the area. This will promote stronger subsidence and allow for
robust diurnal heating. High temperatures are forecast to reach
the low to mid 90s, with dew points climbing into the low 70s
(did modify these down from the unrealistic near record values
forecast by central guidance). The combination of heat and
humidity will result in heat index values rising to near the
triple digit mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

The upper-level ridge will remain the dominant feature through
Friday, maintaining a hot and humid airmass over the region. High
temperatures on Friday will again be in the low to mid 90s with
similar near advisory heat index values.

The pattern becomes more active over the weekend as the ridge begins
to flatten and a cold front approaches from the upper Midwest. This
front will provide the necessary synoptic-scale lift to trigger more
widespread showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the
afternoon and evening hours of Saturday and Sunday. The airmass will
be highly unstable, with ample moisture to support thunderstorms
capable of producing heavy downpours. Central guidance indicates 24-
hour rainfall totals on Saturday and Sunday could approach 0.50
inches areawide, with locally higher amounts likely. Given the
expected weak deep-layer shear, storm organization will likely
remain messy, but the potential for localized flooding will need to
be monitored as the weekend approaches. High temperatures will
moderate slightly into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees due to
increased cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 835 PM Monday...

Any lingering showers at present across southwest VA will
exit/diminish over the next few hours, with mainly dry weather
expected thereafter, with the one exception being an isolated
shower/storm Tuesday afternoon/evening across the spine of the
higher terrain from southwest VA to the northern WV mountains,
potentially resulting in very brief MVFR/IFR VSBY. Otherwise,
the main concern will be MVFR/IFR/LIFR VSBY overnight associated
with developing valley fog, primarily at BKW/CRW/EKN. Fog
lifts/dissipates from 11-13Z Tuesday morning, with widespread
VFR thereafter amid a FEW/SCT fair weather Cu field.

Light and variable or calm surface flow is expected overnight,
with light northeast flow developing on Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight, high Tuesday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and density of fog overnight may
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 07/22/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with valley fog each morning through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GW