222
FXUS61 KRLX 020531
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and mainly dry conditions through the weekend. Gradual
warming trend with a return of humidity next week, with more
widespread shower and thunderstorm chances increasing by mid-
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

Drizzle across the higher elevations is expected to taper off
early this morning as flow switches around to a more
southeasterly direction. Lingering low-level moisture trapped
beneath a strengthening subsidence inversion coupled with
enhanced cloud condensation nuclei in the form of haze from
distance wildfires will continue to support low stratus and
areas of valley fog this morning, most prevalent over the
southern half of the forecast area.

Any valley fog and low stratus will gradually erode by late morning,
replaced by a diurnal cumulus field with thin high clouds on top.
Breaks in cloud cover will reveal a somewhat milky looking sky with
smoke from distant Canadian wildfires suspended aloft, but not
expecting much impact at the surface.

With a relatively dry airmass in place, convective potential is
limited. However, some residual moisture and instability across the
southern coalfields could allow for isolated showers or perhaps a
stray rumble of thunder. High temperatures will be pleasant,
reaching the upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and the upper 60s
to low 70s in the higher terrain.

Modest downslope flow overnight tonight may help to limit any more
significant fog formation, although well protected valleys subject
to better cold air drainage will likely develop at least some patchy
fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

Sunday and Monday will feature a gradual warming trend as high
pressure shifts eastward, initiating a light southeasterly return
flow. High temperatures on Sunday will climb into the low 80s for
the lowlands, followed by mid 80s on Monday. The pattern remains
predominantly dry, although a slight increase in moisture on the
periphery of the high could support a very isolated shower across
the southern coalfields Sunday afternoon. Hazy skies will likely
continue on Sunday as suspended smoke aloft drifts back to the
north. Monday is expected to be dry with abundant sunshine with hazy
skies retreating to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

The long term period will be characterized by a transition to a
warmer and more humid airmass. The surface high will move farther
offshore, allowing for a more established southeasterly flow to
transport moisture from the Gulf into the region. An approaching
upper-level trough from the west will begin to increase lift by
midweek, leading to a return of daily diurnally enhanced shower and
thunderstorm chances. At this time, no organized severe weather is
anticipated.

Temperatures will continue to climb through the week. Highs will be
in the mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching the upper 80s
and potentially low 90s in the western lowlands by Friday. Dew
points will also steadily rise, returning to the mid and upper
60s, bringing a more humid feel to the air by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue or develop at
CRW/EKN/BKW/HTS due to valley fog and low stratus, although a BKN
deck around 040 may yield some bouncing in and out near HTS and CRW.
Any valley fog and low stratus will gradually erode by late
morning, replaced by a diurnal cumulus field with thin high
clouds on top. Breaks in cloud cover will reveal a somewhat
milky looking sky with smoke from distant Canadian wildfires
suspended aloft, but any surface based visibility impacts will
be limited.

Winds will be light, favoring a southeasterly
direction for much of the daylight hours.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The extent and density of valley fog tonight
may vary based on weak flow and impact from a higher level BKN
deck.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        SAT 08/02/25
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Some patchy valley fog will be possible Sunday and Monday
mornings. Brief IFR conditions are possible Tuesday through
Thursday in scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP