653
FXUS61 KRLX 181359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
959 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mild and sunny day is expected today. High pressure promotes
dry weather into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 957 AM Friday...

This morning`s frost advisory has been allowed to expire on
time as temperatures continue to rise above freezing. The
growing season has ended for additional counties in West
Virginia, and a PNS was sent this morning with more details.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track today with high
temperatures expected to reach near 70 this afternoon across
much of the lowlands.

As of 650 AM Friday...

Forecast on track, with much of the area below or right around
freezing.

As of 355 AM Friday...

High pressure with very dry air surface and aloft continuations
its domination as if drifts very slowly east. Frost and river
valley fog will be less common tonight, compared with early this
morning, as temperatures moderate, but dew points are forecast
to be at or even lower than early this morning.

Highs today are forcast a little above central guidance given
the mixing layer should deepen to close to h85.  High
temperatures today will be about ten degrees higher than on
Thursday, resulting in minimum afternoon RH values in the 20s
across much of the area. Light wind will limit fire spread
potential. Lows tonight will only be a few degrees higher than
those this morning, and frost advisories may be needed in any
areas where the growing season survives this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

High pressure, centered over the region beneath an upper ridge, will
allow a period of dry and sunny weather to persist through the
weekend. Low temperatures may remain cool enough for areas of frost
to develop early Saturday morning and again, albeit to a lesser
extent, early Sunday morning.

While the early mornings will feel brisk, daytime high temperatures
are expected to warm to slightly above normal. Highs for both
Saturday and Sunday are expected to reach reach low to mid 70s in
the lowlands and 60s to mid 70s for the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

The reign of high pressure continues through the first half of next
week, then finally comes to an end as a series of shortwaves trail
over the region mid to late week. The first of these shortwaves is
unlikely to bring much more than increased cloud cover to the area
mid-week; however, the next wave and a cold front quickly follow and
introduce the possibility of a few showers late Wednesday into
Thursday. At this point, confidence remains low in the timing of the
front as well as the amount of associated precipitation.

Temperatures should remain above normal through the middle of next
week, then trend cooler again late week after the passage of the
aforementioned front.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 650 AM Friday...

High pressure over the area that provides predominantly VFR
conditions also allows overnight and early morning fog
formation. VLIFR FZFG at EKN dissipate 13-14Z. VLIFR FG will
dissipate 13-14Z PKB and 12-13Z HTS. CRW may have MVFR to IFR
fog until 13Z.

IFR to VLIFR fog will form near or after 06Z at EKN, with MVFR
mist toward dawn Saturday CRW and PKB.

Light northeast flow surface and aloft today will become light
and variable to light southeast tonight, as high pressure drifts
by just to the north of the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog restrictions may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JLB
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMC
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TRM