773
FXUS61 KRLX 010943
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
543 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion.

329 AM Update...
Heat Advisories have been issued for much of the lowlands
for this afternoon through Wednesday.

Models have diverged and, on average, slowed down, on the
timing of a cold front crossing late this week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot and humid through midweek with isolated showers and
  storms across the north.

- 2) Shower and storm coverage increases late this week, as a
  cold front approaches.

- 3) Drier weather with more seasonable temperatures arrive behind
  the cold front at some point this Labor Day Holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The warming trend continues, with a warmer and more humid
early morning in tow for all but northeast portions of the
forecast area, in response to mid/upper-level high pressure
nudging in from the southwest.

The high remains anchored over the Tennessee Valley, southern
Appalachians and Carolinas through Thursday, maintaining the
heat, but leaving some room on its northeast periphery for short
wave troughs/convective complexes to possibly graze northern /
northeastern portions of the forecast area. There, modest but
adequate deep layer bulk shear, 30 to 35 kts at times associated
with the various short waves, plentiful moisture with PW values
of 1.5 to 1.75 inches, and afternoon CAPE of 2 to 3 KJ/kg,
could lead to storms becoming strong to even marginally severe.

Timing of periodic episodes of convection impacting northern /
northeastern portions of the forecast area is this and Thursday
afternoon, with an overnight/early Wednesday morning feature not
having the favor of diurnal timing. The Day 1 and Day 2 Severe
Weather Outlooks continue to graze far northern / northeastern
portions of the forecast area with a Marginal Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms, with Slight Risks northeast of that, outside the
forecast area. The main hazards associated with the Marginal
Risks are damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Elsewhere will be mainly dry and, for much of the lowlands, hot
enough to necessitate the issuance of Heat Advisories. H85
temperatures peak around 20-21C the next three afternoons, which
supports lowland high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s F.
With dew points in the low 70s F, heat indices are likely to
reach the low 100s this afternoon, and the low to mid 100s
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, the highest values centered
across the Huntington Tri-state and Charleston Metro areas. The
Heat Advisories Wednesday may eventually need extended in area
and / or time (for Thursday afternoon) and possibly even
upgraded if confidence increases in Heat Index values reaching
and exceeding 105 F in more than brief, isolated instances,
particularly on Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The ridge amplifies but retrogrades westward toward the end of
the work week, allowing s short wave trough to drive a surface
cold front toward the area from the northwest Thursday night
into Friday, and then through the area Friday afternoon and
night, and possibly even beyond. This increases the chance for
/ coverage of showers and storms and, eventually, a break in the
oppressive heat. The threat for strong, heavy thunderstorms is
possible amid adequate moisture and instability, and at least
marginal/modest shear. Current timing suggests the greatest
threat is still northern / northeastern portions of the area
late Thursday afternoon and evening, and then the bulk of the
forecast area Friday afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Slight Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms for northern into central portions of the
forecast area for Thursday afternoon and evening, with a
Marginal Risk for central into southern portions of the area. A
15 percent Severe Thunderstorm Risk remains in place for all
but far southern portions of the forecast area for Friday/Friday
night, with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall out of the
Weather Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Model solutions have diverged on the timing of the cold front
crossing the area, and hence of the drier and somewhat cooler
air arriving behind it this weekend. This blurs the forecast at
least for Saturday, when there is now a good chance for mainly
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Severe Weather Saturday
depends upon whether the front holds up coincident with another
short wave trough riding along the mid-upper-level northwest
flow crossing the area in the afternoon.

Surface high pressure pressure eventually builds south from
eastern Canada behind the cold front, with drier weather and
more seasonable temperatures bringing a break in the oppressive
heat sometime over the Labor Day Holiday weekend. It make even take
until after Sunday to completely shake the chance for showers
and thunderstorms out of the forecast area, as we remain on the
northeast periphery of the mid/upper-level high large and in
charge over the center of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Any remaining MVFR mist will be gone by 13Z.

Otherwise a mainly VFR day is on tap, save for again the
isolated afternoon thunderstorm that could impact CKB, EKN and
even PKB, for which VCTS has been included.

Tonight will begin VFR, with valley fog formation late tonight
likely again interfered with by cloudiness. Have IFR fog at EKN
after 06Z and CRW after 09Z, with borderline MVFR mist most
elsewhere.

Light and variable to southwest surface flow early this morning
will become light west late this morning, picking up just a
bit, and then become calm tonight. A thunderstorm could bring
brief, erratic gusty winds this afternoon for northern sites.
Flow aloft will generally remain light west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief restrictions could occur if an
isolated shower/storm were to directly impact a TAF site this
afternoon. Extent, timing and intensity of fog overnight
tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 09/01/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with patchy river valley fog
Thursday morning. IFR conditions and strong wind gusts also
possible in thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for WVZ005>010-013>019-026>029.
OH...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM