540
FXUS61 KRLX 072324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
724 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Possible MCS arrival this evening and crossing tonight. Active
weather persists through Monday night with showers and storms
at times. Period of drier weather returns midweek with high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 515 PM Saturday...

Key Point:

 * A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for our north central counties
   of West Virginia from Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

Due to recent rainfall over portions of the area, soils are
very wet, susceptible to runoff. Moderate to heavy rainfall can
be expected with the upcoming shortwave overnight. Latest model
runs suggest precipitation will arrive to our west during the
predawn hours Sunday morning, and then spread northeast to
affect the watch area through Sunday evening.

Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams
and other low-lying and poor drainage areas. Previous forecast
remains on track.

As of 125 PM Saturday...Corrected...

Heavy rainfall, to the tune of 2 to 3.5 inches plus, resulted
in flash flooding in northeast portions of the forecast area,
especially Barbour county, where numerous roads were flooded
and many streams out of their banks across central portions of
the county. Flooding also occurred back into northern Upshur
County and the notorious Duck Creek in Washington County, Ohio.
The flood waters in northeast WV were beginning to recede.

With the surface cold front and mid/upper-level short wave
trough having moved out of the area, coverage of convection in
the still warm and moist post-frontal environment this afternoon
should remain limited to roughly the southeast half of the
forecast area, and what does stand up should be of minimal
impact save for a slow moving heavy downpour.

A mid/upper-level short wave trough tied to a convective complex
moving into the Tennessee Valley early this afternoon will move
across the area tonight, with widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. With associated PW values climbing as high as
1.8 inches, the Weather Prediction Center has upgraded the
excessive rainfall outlook to a slight risk throughout the area
for tonight.

The system will pull the front back north as a warm front to a
point, although the cool pool associated with the convective
complex will shunt or reverse its progress for a time overnight
into Sunday morning. The best chance for strong thunderstorms
is across far southern portions of the area overnight, where
strong low level west to southwest flow will develop south of
the warm front aloft. This is reflected via a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms from the Storm Prediction Center for
tonight.

While the system pulls out Sunday morning, another mid/upper-
level short wave trough crossing in tandem with diurnal heating
is likely to spawn new shower and thunderstorm development
Sunday afternoon. With modest shear spreading north across the
area, and PW values still up around 1.5 inches or higher,
thunderstorms can become strong and heavy Sunday afternoon, as
reflected with a marginal risk from Storm Prediction Center and
marginal to slight excessive rainfall risk from the Weather
Prediction Center. These threats could diminish from the
southwest Sunday afternoon, depending upon the forward progress
of the short wave and slightly drier air moving in behind it.

Highs range in the lower to mid 80s across the area this
afternoon, and then are limited to around 80 or less Sunday
afternoon with more widespread clouds and precipitation. Lows
tonight range in the lower to mid 60s, upper 50s over the
higher ridges.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Any lingering showers/storms early Sunday night are expected to
quickly dissipate given the loss of diurnal heating and mid-
level ridging moving overhead, leading to a relatively quiet
overnight amid seasonably warm temperatures (upper 50s to low
60s lowlands; mid 50s to low 60s mountains).

Another round of showers/storms is expected later Monday into
Monday night as an upper trough and associated cold front
approaches the region. Mixed layer CAPE values progged in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range combined with bulk shear of 35-45 kts
results in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
later Monday into early Monday night. The main hazards are
damaging wind gusts, along with a slightly lower end threat for
large hail. Additionally, given rather weak low-level flow,
localized flash flooding will once again be possible,
particularly in areas impacted with heavy rainfall the past
couple days. Highs on Monday will generally range from the mid
70s to mid 80s, with lows Monday night in the mid 50s to low
60s.

The chance (20-40%) for showers and perhaps a few isolated
thunderstorms continues on Tuesday, but overall, will be much
drier, amid slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Building/traversing high pressure results in dry weather across
the region on Wednesday/Thursday, with the next chance for rain
being later Friday and Saturday amid increasing moisture with
return flow. Seasonable high temperatures on Wednesday will
transition to above normal on Thursday/Friday amid a gradual
increase in humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 713 PM Saturday...

Radar shows only isolated light showers across the CWA as the Sun
comes down this evening. However, expect showers and storms to
increase in coverage as a shortwave passes over a near-stationary
frontal boundary tonight. Clusters of showers with embedded
thunderstorms will produce periods of IFR/LIFR visibility under
moderate to heavy rain. Outside shower activity, VFR/MVFR conditions
are anticipated into Monday morning. Used the latest HRRR
model, timing showers and storms activity affecting CRW, and HTS
the hardest with IFR conditions under thunderstorms. Strong
gusty winds can be expected nearby storms.

Aviation restrictions should improve Sunday morning, with VFR/MVFR
ceilings prevailing. However, the triple point of a passing low
pressure system arrive during the afternoon heating hours,
enhancing showers and thunderstorms development Sunday afternoon
and evening. This gives rise to the potential for strong
thunderstorm wind gusts and hail in addition to heavy downpours.

The aforementioned warm front lifts north during the day Sunday.
Expect light and variable winds either side of the front. An
associated cold front arrives to SE OH Sunday afternoon or evening,
to bring a wind shift with moderate winds from the west northwest
behind it.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection affecting any
terminal could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from 7 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for
     WVZ009>011-019-020-030>032-039-040.
OH...Flood Watch from 7 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for
     OHZ067-076.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...ARJ