411
FXUS61 KRLX 021153
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
753 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and mainly dry conditions through the weekend. Gradual
warming trend with a return of humidity next week, with more
widespread shower and thunderstorm chances increasing by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 750 AM Saturday...

Made a quick update to add patchy drizzle further northwest
into the lowlands based on radar/satellite trends.

As of 600 AM Saturday...

Added some patchy drizzle around the Metro Valley this morning
and reduced fog coverage. Light southeasterly flow was able to
stop fog formation in its tracks and dissipate most of what had
already formed.

As of 120 AM Saturday...

Drizzle across the higher elevations is expected to taper off
early this morning as flow switches around to a more
southeasterly direction. Lingering low-level moisture trapped
beneath a strengthening subsidence inversion coupled with
enhanced cloud condensation nuclei in the form of haze from
distance wildfires will continue to support low stratus and
areas of valley fog this morning, most prevalent over the
southern half of the forecast area.

Any valley fog and low stratus will gradually erode by late morning,
replaced by a diurnal cumulus field with thin high clouds on top.
Breaks in cloud cover will reveal a somewhat milky looking sky with
smoke from distant Canadian wildfires suspended aloft, but not
expecting much impact at the surface.

With a relatively dry airmass in place, convective potential is
limited. However, some residual moisture and instability across the
southern coalfields could allow for isolated showers or perhaps a
stray rumble of thunder. High temperatures will be pleasant,
reaching the upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and the upper 60s
to low 70s in the higher terrain.

Modest downslope flow overnight tonight may help to limit any more
significant fog formation, although well protected valleys subject
to better cold air drainage will likely develop at least some patchy
fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

Sunday and Monday will feature a gradual warming trend as high
pressure shifts eastward, initiating a light southeasterly return
flow. High temperatures on Sunday will climb into the low 80s for
the lowlands, followed by mid 80s on Monday. The pattern remains
predominantly dry, although a slight increase in moisture on the
periphery of the high could support a very isolated shower across
the southern coalfields Sunday afternoon. Hazy skies will likely
continue on Sunday as suspended smoke aloft drifts back to the
north. Monday is expected to be dry with abundant sunshine with hazy
skies retreating to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

The long term period will be characterized by a transition to a
warmer and more humid airmass. The surface high will move farther
offshore, allowing for a more established southeasterly flow to
transport moisture from the Gulf into the region. An approaching
upper-level trough from the west will begin to increase lift by
midweek, leading to a return of daily diurnally enhanced shower and
thunderstorm chances. At this time, no organized severe weather is
anticipated.

Temperatures will continue to climb through the week. Highs will be
in the mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching the upper 80s
and potentially low 90s in the western lowlands by Friday. Dew
points will also steadily rise, returning to the mid and upper
60s, bringing a more humid feel to the air by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 600 AM Saturday...

Any valley fog and low stratus will erode by late morning,
replaced by a diurnal cumulus field with thin high clouds on
top. Breaks in cloud cover will reveal a somewhat milky looking
sky with smoke from distant Canadian wildfires suspended aloft,
but any surface based visibility impacts will be limited.

Some patchy valley fog may redevelop tonight, especially in well
protected valley, but should largely be limited to EKN and
perhaps CRW.

Winds will be light, favoring a southeasterly direction for
much of the daylight hours.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement of patchy fog this
morning may vary slightly from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
Some patchy valley fog will be possible Monday morning. Brief
IFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday in scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP