696
FXUS61 KRLX 051042
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
642 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A late summer severe weather threat transpires late today ahead
of a cold front. Active weather remains for the start of the
weekend. High pressure returns Sunday into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM Friday...

A few radar returns sprouting across eastern Kentucky will
venture through our extreme southern zones over the next few
hours. Opted to bump up POPs to account for this potential
across southern WV and southwestern VA.

As of 110 AM Friday...

Key Points:

 * A loitering boundary lifts as a warm front today, yielding
   strong daytime heating for this afternoon.

 * This will prime the atmosphere to become unstable late today
   ahead of a secondary cold front.

 * Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will first develop
   in the Central Tennessee Valley and quickly travel into the
   Central Appalachians this evening.

 * Storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
   large hail. Quick spin-up tornadoes cannot be ruled out with
   tonight`s activity.

A vertically stacked disturbance positioned over Canada and the
Upper Great Lakes region will serve up a late season chance for
severe weather here in the forecast area late this afternoon and
into the late night period tonight.

For early this morning, a frontal boundary is analyzed to be
slicing through the forecast area. A breezy mid to level upper
level jet will nudge this boundary northward throughout the
morning in the form of a warm front and will encourage
sufficient diurnal heating to take shape for areas south of the
front. Temperatures this afternoon as a result will rise into
the upper 80s to low 90s across the lower elevations, a feat
that hasn`t been observed since the middle of August.

As a surface low attached to our stacked disturbance is driven
to the northeast throughout the day, it will drive a stronger
secondary cold front through the Ohio Valley. This feature will
capitalize on the strong diurnal heating, with forecast surface
CAPE readings progged to reach above 2000 J/kg by the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Hi-res simulated reflectivity
models depict initial convective development taking shape across
central Tennessee/Kentucky around 3 to 4 PM this afternoon and
will grow northeastward in earnest quickly into our forecast
area amid the warm and unstable environment set in place during
peak heating hours. Notable buoyancy and bulk shear parameters
preceding the front will yield potential for all severe threats
within mature storms today. Long-lived storms that travel and/or
develop in the forecast area will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts, hail, and rotation within supercells
through the course of this evening and late night hours.

Scattered showers and storms prevail into overnight tonight as
the secondary front slowly tracks eastward. Instability trails
off after midnight, which will limit thunderstorm potential
heading into Saturday morning. However, rain and heavy downpours
will link the end of the near term and start of the short term
forecast period as the front remains over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 AM Friday...

Models have trended with a more active start to the weekend in
comparison to past forecast cycles. The secondary cold frontal
passage first noted above will be underway at the start of the
short term period, with support from an upper trough swinging
through the eastern half of the country. This will maintain
steady POPs on the order of 50% to 75% initially on Saturday
morning, when the boundary slices through the forecast area. As
the front makes slow eastward progress, instability along and
east of the mountains will begin to support embedded
thunderstorms within development ahead of the boundary for the
afternoon. The front is then slated to reach the Delmarva region
by Saturday evening, which should bring the end to showers here
in the Central Appalachians late that night.

Surface high pressure will then begin to take center stage for
the end of the weekend and into the vast majority of next week.
The front continues to dash offshore on Sunday and the eastern
fringes of the surface high will then take stake over the Ohio
Valley. A dry forecast will then commence amid ample sunshine.
Temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year
throughout the period, with daytime highs ranging in the 60s and
70s, and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 AM Friday...

The new work week forecast advertises mostly dry weather as
robust high pressure at the surface settles into the Ohio
Valley. This will prohibit shower and storm development during
its residency, with the closest form of precipitation staying
hundreds of miles to the south along the Gulf Coast. This
surface feature shifts to the east around midweek, but should
retain enough influence to maintain little to no chances for
precipitation through the end of the valid forecast period.

Cooler weather opens up the long term period, with afternoon
highs on Monday projected to plateau in the 60s along the
mountains and 70s across the lowlands. Some spots in the
northeast WV mountains could also wake up to patchy frost Monday
morning as overnight lows tumble down into the upper 30s. As
the aforementioned surface high slides eastward, a subtle
warming trend takes shape for the rest of the week. Daytime
temperatures will return to seasonable norms for Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Friday...

Moments of low stratus and valley fog have crept into a few
terminals from time to time overnight, but could not solidify
due to strong column flow off the surface. A front remains
draped through the area this morning, but is progged to lift
northward throughout the morning. A stronger boundary arrives
late this evening into the overnight hours, and will promote
showers and strong to possibly severe thunderstorms starting
late in the Zulu day. All hazards will be possible within
severe development today. Precipitation chances prevail into the
overnight hours and into the start of the weekend. As the
secondary front presses overhead, lowered ceilings and
visibilities will triumph overhead overnight into Sunday morning.

Calm winds this morning will become breezy out of the southwest
late this morning in the wake of the first boundary lifting
northward and encouraging a slight pressure gradient to
transpire. Gusts of 15 to 20kts were included at TAF sites to
account for this possibility.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of fog/low
stratus and showers/storms could vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in fog and stratus early Sunday morning, at least
in and near the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK