462
FXUS61 KRLX 081832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
132 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with dry conditions through Saturday. Another
system brings more rain to round out the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

Lower ceilings are finally starting to clear out over the southern
mountains as drier air continues to infiltrate the CWA. Overnight,
expect relatively clear and cool conditions. Some patchy river
valley fog is possible late, but not expecting any widespread fog
outside of favored river valleys. Warmer Saturday, with high
pressure surface and aloft in control. Very dry air mass in place,
with min RH values expected to bottom out in the 20 percent range.
Thankfully winds will remain relatively light overall. Clouds will
gradually start to increase towards the end of the period out ahead
of the next system which will affect the area Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

Dry weather quickly comes to an end Saturday evening as a
disturbances ventures across the country. Showers will outpace the
cold front attached to this system and will reach our western
zones shortly after sunset Saturday night and will engulf the
forecast area from west to east during the overnight hours. The
highest POPs arrive Sunday afternoon as the frontal boundary
dashes eastward through the Ohio Valley. The front will feed on
a tropical disturbance spinning over the Gulf of Mexico and
could provide the best source of moisture this area of the
country has seen since the start of the drought. QPF totals from
Sunday into Monday have come down a touch from previous
forecasts, but over a half of an inch remains possible for our
area during that time.

The front gets hung up along the mountains for the start of the
new work week, but gradually loses influence over the area on
Monday as the boundary nudges offshore in response to
encroaching high pressure. Temperatures will not observe a
response quite yet to the cooler airmass within this forecast
period and will remain in the 50s/60s during the day both Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

Low level winds veer out of the north/northwest on Tuesday under
the influence of a secondary cold front dropping down from the
Great Lakes. A few spots may squeeze out rain from this passing
system, but the main feature taking shape in its wake will be
the cooler air that drops down from the north. While less
noticeable initially during the day on Tuesday, overnight lows
plummet back down into the 30s/40s for Wednesday morning and
then only rise into the 40s/50s for afternoon highs both on
Wednesday and Thursday.

The weather pattern will remain dry during the day Wednesday,
but a newly developed system slides into the area for the
conclusion of the valid long term period and brings another
round of rain. Sub-freezing temperatures in place overnight
Thursday may also allow for wintry precipitation along the
higher terrain, but there still remains variability on this
amongst global models.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

VFR conditions are taking hold area wide, although areas of MVFR
ceilings will continue to remain across the southern mountains
through 20-21Z. Winds are generally from the northwest and
light, although occasional gusts in the teens to lower/mid 20 kt
range can be expected at times, mainly across the mountains and
parts of north central WV as stronger winds aloft mix down
towards the surface.

Patchy MVFR/IFR valley fog expected generally between 08-13Z
Saturday. Some indications of fog developing across parts of
the higher terrain, affecting KBKW overnight. Confidence is low
but did elect to put IFR in for a period after 09Z at KBKW.
After 13Z Saturday, VFR area wide with light surface winds.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through 08Z Saturday, then medium on
fog development and restrictions.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Current IFR prediction at KBKW
overnight/Saturday morning may not occur.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Air Quality Alert until midnight EST Saturday night for WVZ005-
     006-013>015-024>026-033-034-515>518.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...SL