011
FXUS61 KRLX 060313
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1113 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and storms diminish in coverage this evening. Convection
returns Friday as a slow moving cold front gets closer. Active
weather persists into the weekend as the front stalls over the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1110 PM Thursday...

Increased PoPs over the Mountain Lakes region for the next
couple hours to better reflect a decaying complex of very slow
moving convection.

As of 845 PM Thursday...

Adjusted hourly temperatures and dewpoints as cooling showers
and thunderstorms dropped these parameters few degrees. Also
removed thunderstorms everywhere, except across the southern
and central mountains where storms still going early this
evening. Allowed for additional showers or storms to approach
from the west during the predawn hours, before passing the OH
River later Friday morning. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 215 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

 * An Air Quality Alert has been issued for the state of West
   Virginia through 10 PM this evening.

 * A sluggishly moving cold front yields episodic rounds of
   showers and storms starting today and into the weekend.

After a slew of dry weather ruling the roost for the start of
the week, a cold front will begin to drive showers and storms
into the area today. Already seeing that develop this afternoon
on radar with agitated cumulus forming a scattered cluster of
activity in our northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio counties.
Another cluster of diurnally driven showers and storms within
our forecast area will be up along the ridges this afternoon and
evening in response to southeast flow and nearby low pressure of
tropical descent churning over the Carolinas. Both clusters of
activity will diminish late tonight with the loss of daytime
heating, with precipitation chances then retreating back to the
north and west closer to where the cold front will be
positioned.

Upper level ridging will continue to flatten aloft overnight,
with the cold front able to achieve further eastward progression
through the Ohio Valley. The boundary is progged to reach just
outside the western fringes of our forecast area Friday morning
and will likely set up shop for the rest of the near term
period. This will spread showers and afternoon thunderstorms
across a wider area on Friday, with some storms capable of
producing locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. An
impulse of moisture riding along the southern edge of the front
will be on the verge of reaching our area late Friday evening,
imposing an extension for precipitation into the overnight hours
and into the start of the weekend.

In the midst of the encroaching cold front, efficient southerly
flow will encourage an influx of moisture into the area today,
causing humidity levels to rise alongside unseasonably warmer
temperatures. An Air Quality Alert has been issued for the state
of West Virginia through 10 PM this evening due to the muggy
conditions, coupled with lingering Canadian wildfire smoke.
Afternoon high temperatures on Friday are anticipated to be a
few degrees lower than the past several days, only reaching the
low 80s across the lowlands and the 70s along the spine of the
Appalachians.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Key Points:
* Unsettled through the weekend.
* Heavy downpours and a few severe storms possible on Saturday.

A front slowly slides into the area from the northwest Friday night
and then lingers overhead through Saturday. Widespread showers and
storms are expected to develop in the moisture rich environment
accompanying the front, with potential for isolated severe storms as
instability peaks during the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds
are the main concern for any severe storms. Localized flash flooding
could also occur due to heavy rain in thunderstorms, particularly in
locations impacted by previous rounds of storms.

Sunday remains active as the arrival of a shortwave and surface low
prompt additional chances for showers and thunderstorms during the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Key Points:
* Upper trough maintains precipitation chances early next week.
* Briefly drier for much of the area mid week.

An upper level trough ushers a cold front across the area Monday and
Tuesday, then a period of drier conditions is possible for much of
the area as weak high pressure moves in behind the retreating trough
mid week. Precipitation chances redevelop towards the end of the
week as moisture spreads north in advance of another boundary.

Temperatures should remain near to normal much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 754 PM Thursday...

Radar and satellite imagery showing slow-moving diurnal driven
showers and thunderstorms, producing MVFR/IFR conditions across
the central and southern mountains at the time of writing. On
other hand, another batch of showers roughly along the OH River,
shows signs of weakening and dissipating as it moves further
east. Then, expect convection to dissipate, allowing for few
light showers passing by during the overnight hours. Showers and
thunderstorms could still affect BKW and CRW through this
evening. The probability for storms to affect the rest of
terminals is low for tonight.

Shower and thunderstorms will return Friday afternoon and
evening as a cold front gets closer from our west. Atmospheric
conditions will be unstable and moist, with PWATs reaching 1.8
inches, SBCAPE exceeding 2200 J/Kg and an increase in deep layered
shear about 35-40 knots. These ingredients will allow for more
widespread convection than todays, with showers and
thunderstorms capable to produce damaging winds, hail, and
localized heavy downpours.

Winds will remain light and primarily out of the south/southwest
through the period out ahead of the frontal passage.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 06/06/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    L    L    L    L    M    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms through
Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/20
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...ARJ