908
FXUS61 KRLX 031453
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1053 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A system serves up showers and thunderstorms at times through
the weekend, with flooding increasingly likely for the Mid-Ohio
Valley region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM Thursday...

The forecast is behaving as anticipated this morning, so only
very minor adjustments were necessary. National mosaic radar
depicts a conveyor belt of rain spanning the coast of New Jersey
and down into Texas, cutting through the heart of our forecast
area. This denotes the current placement of the frontal boundary
that will now take residency overhead for the next several days.
So far this morning, the front has contributed to a hybrid of
severe weather and localized flooding issues. This combination
is progged to continue through the course of the afternoon and
evening before transitioning over to mainly a flooding threat.

As of 1235 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will push
into our area early this morning. A low level jet (currently 60
knots at 3000 feet near Charleston) will keep very strong winds
just off the surface this morning. There is concern that these
storms could mix these winds to the ground and produce damaging
wind gusts. Model soundings also show helicity values of 800 to
900 as the line hits our western counties with shear values of
50 to 60. Therefore, tornados are also a possibility. With
effective CAPE of 500 to 1000 in this area as well, some large
hail is possible.

The cold front will then stall over eastern Kentucky and West
Virginia today and tonight. Heating south of the front should
once again create conditions favorable for severe weather this
afternoon. The threat of flash flooding also increases. A couple
of meso models are showing some heavy precipitation getting into
northeastern West Virginia, although the majority are not. This
does lead to concerns that the Flood Watch may need to be
extended across the rest of northern West Virginia, but will
hold off for now until models are in better agreement.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM Thursday...

Active weather continues in the short term with additional chances
for showers and thunderstorms associated with a stationary boundary
across the Ohio Valley. The boundary will likely be situated
somewhere along the Ohio River early Friday before lifting northward
as a warm front, shifting more warm and moist air back into the
southern half of our area. This will provide the focus for renewed
chances of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with the
heaviest axis of precipitation for our area across NE KY, SE OH, and
far western WV.

There will be the potential for a few of the thunderstorms Friday
and Friday night to be strong to severe, highly dependent on the
front location and the amount of instability that can be realized
given substantial antecedent precipitation and cloud cover. There is
a slightly better chance for some severe weather across a the
western two-thirds of the area Saturday, where a bit more
instability can be realized, pending once again the location of the
frontal boundary and how the previous day plays out as each day is
highly dependent on mesoscale features that won`t be resolved until
the near term. Nonetheless, heavy rain can be expected with the
activity through the weekend, leading to potential for flooding
across mainly western WV, SE OH, and NE KY. The stalled boundary
should finally be kicked eastward thanks to an upper level shortwave
that will swing southeast across the region Sunday, putting an end
to the continuous stream of moisture. After the frontal passage,
much cooler and drier conditions are expected into early next
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 405 AM Thursday...

As the deep upper level trough shifts across the region, colder
temperatures are expected early in the week, with a slow warming
trend after Tuesday. Some scattered showers and even snow is
possible through early Tuesday and again late Wednesday as another
system approaches from the west. No snow accumulations expected at
this time.

Runoff as a result of persistent rainfall this weekend may also
persist in area creeks, streams, and rivers leading to a continued
possibility of flooding even after most precipitation comes to an
end early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 510 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front are
pushing across the area this morning, creating brief IFR
conditions. A low level jet (currently 50 knots at 3000 feet
near Charleston) will keep very strong winds just off the
surface this morning. This will allow the storms to produce
damaging wind gusts. Tornados are also possible. Behind the
line, some rain will create MVFR or IFR conditions for an hour
or two. The line should weaken some as it pushes into eastern
West Virginia.

The cold front will stall over the area today and tonight. This
will create some MVFR clouds north of the front, with some areas
dropping to IFR tonight. Generally VFR clouds can be expected south
of the front. However, showers and thunderstorms at times will
create brief IFR conditions. Some thunderstorms this afternoon
south of the cold front could become severe.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium this morning, then low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions with
showers and thunderstorms could vary. The location of the front
stalling could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday
night through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...28/RPY
NEAR TERM...MEK/RPY
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...RPY