758
FXUS61 KRLX 040526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
126 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through today, with a hotter afternoon. A slow moving cold
front approaches late in the work week, with a return to more
active weather at least into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...

High pressure both at the surface and aloft will slowly drift
east through this period. This will still hold the area at bay
from any unsettled weather. Some high clouds will advect in and
some haze/smoke will still linger about the area, but should
not cause too many issues both in the sky and at the surface.
Chances for rain showers will become a reality for Thursday
morning across southeast Ohio.

For today, look for sunny and dry conditions with weak surface
flow. Temperatures will get into the upper 80s to low 90s
across much of the area. However, due to it being so dry, the
heat will not be close to any hazardous heat indices and will
not feel as hot as if we had a lot of moisture in the area.

The highs today will be fairly far from record territory
although will be around 10 degrees above normal. With
southerly flow ahead of a cold front approaching the area some
moisture will start to advect in by the evening and more cloud
coverage will become apparent by tonight. We might even get
some low clouds by late afternoon and for the evening if we do
get enough moisture flux.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Tuesday...

Strong upper level ridging that dominated the first half of the
work week will begin to breakdown and lose influence over the
Central Appalachians ahead of the next disturbance. While
remaining dry at the very start of the short term, rain chances
will begin to sneak back into our northwestern zones Thursday
morning as a slow moving cold front drifts in from the west.

The boundary is not progged to make much forward progress on
Thursday as it will find itself in a bit of a holding pattern
amid an area of low pressure forming off the Carolina coast. As
has been the case for the past few forecast cycles, the highest
chances for showers and an isolated storm or two will be capped
west of the I-77 corridor on Thursday, and will retreat back to
the west by late in the day as diurnal contributions diminish
after sunset.

The ridge flattens for the end of the work week, opening the
door for the cold front to march eastward. The result will be
the invasion of showers and embedded thunderstorms on Friday.
The low off the eastern seaboard will block the front from
escaping the Central Appalachians, causing the boundary to stall
out overhead for the end of the period and maintaining
widespread chances for rain.

Unseasonably warm temperatures continue on Thursday amid the
vacating ridge aloft, with highs anticipated in the 70s along
the mountains and mid to upper 80s across the lowlands. Daytime
temperatures tumble down a few degrees on Friday in the midst of
increasing chances for showers and storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Tuesday...

Unsettled weather prevails into the weekend as a cold front
washes out over the area. Impulses of energy ride up the
decaying boundary on Saturday, yielding high chance POPs of 60
percent or greater at the start of the forecast period, then
gradually becomes confined to the higher terrain for Saturday
afternoon. The base of an upper level trough swings through the
Ohio Valley late in the day Saturday, and will provide one more
burst of rain before precipitation dashes towards the eastern
seaboard. Soil conditions should be prepped to handle the bulk
of rain from this stalled frontal boundary in response to dry
weather from earlier in the week, but isolated high water issues
may begin to sprout as the weekend wears on.

The second half of the weekend will then see reprieve from
widespread rain and slightly rebounding temperatures. However,
enough lingering moisture may result in diurnally driven showers
and storms Sunday afternoon amid warming temperatures. Latest
global model suite depict a robust upper level low dropping down
into the Great Lakes region for the start of next week and
driving a cold front through the Ohio Valley. This will impose
renewed precipitation chances late in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

High pressure moves to the east slowly today but will still
keep the area settled from any weather. Some haze/smoke will be
lingering about today such as in the past few days, however not
thinking the near surface haze will affect VIS although, like
yesterday, there could be some minor restrictions to VIS in the
form of 5 or 6SM with HZ during the daytime. There is low
confidence that this will happen though. Other than that,
enough flow off the surface will keep fog at bay for today and
likely tomorrow. Chances of rain showers do come into the
picture Thursday morning across southeast Ohio and will
continue to advect in from northwest to southeast throughout
Thursday. VFR shall rule today with mainly southerly flow,
although weak around 5kts, by afternoon. Lastly, there is some
wind shear for this morning across PKB/CKB, but will diminish
by late morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of possible MVFR visibility in
haze/smoke is uncertain for today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 06/04/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon into, if not through, the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JZ