949
FXUS61 KRLX 110832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
332 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold northwest flow behind a strong early-season Arctic front
will support snow showers and gusty winds this morning. Dry and
mild weather returns Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

A strong upper-level low remains off to our east an high
pressure to our south will nudge into our area today. West to
northwest flow will act as a hose, funneling moisture from Lake
Michigan over our area early this morning. Rounds of moderate to
heavy snow showers will move across the area until high pressure
really moves in shifting the flow from lake moisture favorable
WNW to a drier SW`rly direction. Snowfall is very efficient with
temperatures aloft between -10 and -12 degrees Celsius aloft.
Snowfall ratios are drier and more powdery between 15:1 and
17:1

That said, light amounts(less than an inch) will be picked up
overnight across the lowlands, however a few bands may contain
efficient snowfall rates upwards of 1-2"/hour leading to a
couple inches of new accumulations possible in spots. This will
especially be the case across the mountains with upslope. Roads
may quickly become snow covered and visibility could be as low
as a half a mile with prominent bands. Will keep the winter
weather headlines until 7am as a result.

Overall, snowfall will be tapering off west to east at daybreak
with maybe a few upslope snow showers remaining across the
higher elevations of the northeastern mountains. Ultimately they
will end by the afternoon with high pressure moving in and a
trough to our east rotating away from the area.

Winds will be gusty today with gusts between 25 and 40 mph,
especially in the mountains. Higher gusts are possible in the
mountains. A wind advisory may be needed across the higher
terrain zones of Pocahontas and Randolph Counties this morning
and into the afternoon.

Lows this morning will be very cold with temperatures in the
teens and 20s. These temperatures paired with the wind will lead
to frigid wind chills. It will feel like the teens and single
digits across the lowlands, with negative and single digits
across the mountains. Highs will moderate some today with the
upper 30s and lower 40s across the lowlands and 20s and 30s in
the mountains. Not as cold, but it will still feel like January
as opposed to November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

The weather will be mostly dry for the short term period under
the influence of high pressure. Temperatures will moderate some
come Wednesday with swift southwesterly flow continuing due to
surface high pressure nearby allowing for high temperatures to
reach the mid to upper 50s across the lowlands. The mountains
will range anywhere from the mid 30s to the lower 50s.

A trough and cold front will cross the area on Wednesday, but
will be mostly moisture starved. A brief shower of flurry in the
mountains could be possible though. Winds will be gusty once
again though with gusts between 20 and 45 mph across the entire
forecast area being common. Another wind advisory may be needed
again across the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph
Counties early Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Thursday will showcase dry weather and a similar temperature
scheme, but winds will be on the downward swing with gusts
decreasing throughout the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

A disturbance will move up from the south Friday and Saturday,
docking just south of the area. Chances for rain return Friday
through Saturday. Surface high pressure will allow the warming
trend to continue with upper 50s and 60s in store for the
lowlands this weekend. Chances for rain linger Sunday and into
Monday as the aforementioned disturbance moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

MVFR and IFR conditions continue through the morning with snow
showers and lower ceilings traversing the area. Intermittent
snow showers will continue this morning with moderate to heavy
snowfall possible at times. Visibility may be a quarter of a
mile or less in heavier snow bands.

Snow showers taper off later this morning after ~12z. A few
remnant upslope snow showers could be possible across the higher
terrain of the northeastern mountains. VFR starts moving in
from west to east by mid morning as more scattered cloud cover
and higher ceilings arrive.

Winds will be W`rly to NW`ly early this morning and will be
gusty. Gusts between 15 and 25 knots are possible across the
mountains. Winds shift out of the SW later this morning and will
remain gusty through the afternoon before slacking off some this
evening and overnight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of restrictions in low
ceilings and snow showers may vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 11/11/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are in the forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>034-040-515>517.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for WVZ039-
     518>523-525-526.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this
     afternoon for WVZ523-526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ086-
     087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC