506
FXUS61 KRLX 240038
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
738 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Wintry mountain precipitation diminishes tonight as low
pressure to our northeast pulls away. Dry Sunday into Monday.
Rain returns Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 738 PM Saturday...

The Winter Storm Warning has been allowed to end across the
higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph counties. A
few transient light snow showers and areas of blowing and
drifting snow are possible overnight into early Sunday morning
with continued upslope flow. Temperatures have risen above
freezing for most locations, however a few weather stations at
elevations above 4,000 feet are reporting temperatures below
freezing. That said, travel could be treacherous across these
areas still with roads being slick and impassable.

As of 1245 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

 * Mountain snow showers and lower elevation drizzle diminishes
   this evening into Sunday morning.

 * Winter Storm Warning continues until this evening for
   southeast Randolph and northwest Pocahontas Counties.

 * This remains in place for lingering light snow accumulations
   and potential for a light glaze of ice.

 * High pressure builds in for the end of the weekend.

The upper level disturbance that orchestrated the first decent
snowfall event for this fall/winter season will continue to
churn over Nova Scotia this afternoon into tonight, slowly
losing influence over the Central Appalachians. Radar trends at
the time of writing displayed scattered showers continuing to
stream in from the northwest, falling as a light drizzle/rain in
the lower elevations and foothills where temperatures have risen
into the 40s today, and as snow along our higher mountain zones.

Forecast soundings denote the moisture column that has supported
ongoing snow in the mountains to grow more shallow as we
continue to progress through the afternoon and evening. While
ice nucleation is lost within this process, we may see
occasional periods of freezing rain mixing into the wintry
precipitation in our two mountain zones still within a Winter
Storm Warning (southeast Randolph and northwest Pocahontas
Counties). 850mb streamlines are progged to gradually shift from
the northwest to a more westerly component tonight, which should
bring the best chance for accumulating snow to an end. In
addition, strong gradient winds will gradually weaken this
evening, with surface gusts of 30 to 40 mph along the mountains
becoming less common.

To allow time for the oncoming shift to assess radar trends and
additional local storm reports, have opted to allow the Winter
Storm Warning to continue until its anticipated expiration time
of 7 PM this evening in the event additional snow and/or ice
accumulations are identified.

For overnight into Sunday morning, skies will continue to be
masked by stratus beneath a persnickety low level inversion.
Mountain flurries could persist within this cloud deck before
completely coming to an end around daybreak. Temperatures
overnight will stumble back down into the 30s ahead of the
anticipated warm up late in the weekend into the start of next
week.

High pressure will begin its residency late Sunday morning as it
travels up from the Mississippi Valley. This will promote
clearing skies from south to north throughout the afternoon and
evening, with winds backing out of the south near the surface.
This will garner warmer afternoon high temperatures, with
readings in the 50s returning to the lowlands and 40s along the
higher terrain. Surface flow will also grow lighter in response
to the encroaching surface high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1251 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

* Dry most of Monday, but rain returns Monday night into Tuesday
* Generally 0.25-0.50" of rain through Tuesday
* After a mild Monday, Tuesday becomes colder

Most of Monday will be dry and milder with a ridge overhead. Expect
highs in the lower 60s across the lowlands and the 50s in the
mountains. By late Monday and into Monday night, a low pressure
system will track across the Great Lakes, bringing our next chance
of rain. Temperatures will be high enough to keep this an all-rain
event, even in the mountains. Generally 0.25-0.50" is expected
through Tuesday morning. In the wake of this system, cooler air will
return with temperatures falling back into the upper 40s and lower
50s for daytime highs Tuesday afternoon. Gradual clearing to some
sunshine is expected by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1251 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

* Quiet weather for holiday travelers Wednesday
* Another storm brings rain and potentially mountain snow
  showers Thursday and Friday, but confidence is low

Chilly, but quiet weather is expected Wednesday for holiday
travelers with high pressure generally over much of the mid-Atlantic
region. A southern stream system is expected to approach for
Thanksgiving Day, bringing bad weather for the holiday in the form
of rain for most. Temperatures may be cold enough in the higher
elevations of the WV mountains for mostly snow. However, uncertainty
is high for an event being 5 days away, so check back for further
updates.

After this system passes through our region, a strong reinforcing
cold front will follow on Friday, bringing a blast of cold air for
late Friday and into Saturday. Temperatures may not break out of the
30s Saturday afternoon, even in the lower elevations. This cold
blast may also bring the potential of upslope snow showers for the
weekend, but models are split regarding this potential.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 620 PM Saturday...

Most of the forecast area remains under MVFR CIGs with some
brief holes of VFR bring reported across the northern lowlands
of WV and OH. CIGs will remain MVFR or drop to IFR for much of
the area tonight. BKW and EKN, possibly even CRW and CKB will
likely see CIGs lower to IFR or LIFR overnight.

Showers have ceased across much of the area, but a few remnant
upslope showers of rain or snow are possible across the
northeastern WV mountains. This activity will shut off for good
by early Sunday morning.

Low CIGs will remain into Sunday morning, but high pressure will
begin eroding the cloud deck from SW to NE by mid to late
morning. VFR will be abundant by mid to late afternoon with
mostly high-level clouds aloft.

NW winds will remain breezy to gusty across the higher ridges
of the mountains. Winds will be light and from the SW for much
of the lowlands overnight. Light SW`rly winds will be prominent
for much of Sunday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings will likely vary tonight, mainly
between IFR and MVFR categories. Ceilings could be lower than
forecasted at BKW, CRW and EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR ceilings possible late Monday night into Tuesday with an
approaching cold front.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC