713
FXUS61 KRLX 261808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
208 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of light rain will taper off along the higher elevations
this afternoon. High pressure returns tonight through the weekend,
and into early next week, becoming unsettled again midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Behind the departing cold front, a broad high pressure over the
Great Lakes will extend south into the Ohio valley, and West
Virginia for the rest of the weekend. This feature brings a drier
airmass and cooler weather conditions Tonight and Sunday. This dry
air and afternoon mixing will drop relative humidity into the upper
20s and lower 30s across the area Sunday afternoon and evening.

Tonight`s temperatures will drop below normal amid cold air in place
and ideal radiational cooling conditions. Expect lows in the lower
40s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 30s northeast
mountains. Highs for Sunday will generally be in the 60s across the
lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 208 PM Saturday...

Temperatures will slowly start to warm Monday into Tuesday as upper
heights build across the area, and warm southerly flow takes hold as
a warm front lifts north towards the area. Could see a few showers
or an isolated thunderstorm during the period, but for the most
part, conditions will remain dry. The better chance for activity
looks to be Tuesday as the low moves east across Canada and its
associated cold front approaches the area. SPC already has the area
outlooked for the potential for severe weather across northern and
western zones, with Tuesday afternoon/evening looking to be the
greatest threat period for severe weather with increasing
instability and shear across the area, although the better threat
looks to lie just outside of our area. The main threats look to be
damaging winds and hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 208 PM Saturday...

Frontal boundary will sag south  into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and briefly stall out over the CWA or just to the south
of the area, before lifting back north on Thursday as a low and
shortwave develop across the southern U.S. and ejects northeast
towards the area. This will result in a continuation of the
unsettled conditions across the area, and perhaps the potential for
a few stronger storms in the Thursday evening time frame. Any storms
during the period, will be prone to heavy downpours owing to the
anomalously  high moisture content air pumped into the region, and
localized/minor water issues could become a problem with time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

IFR ceilings will continue to bounce at PKB, CRW, and CKB at
least through 21Z. MVFR/IFR conditions expected at EKN and BKW
through 00Z tonight, while MVFR conditions should prevail at
HTS through 00Z tonight.

With the cold front exiting east of the Appalachians this
afternoon, lingering light showers may continue across the
higher elevations into this evening. Expect conditions to
gradually improve from west to east this afternoon and evening,
and along the eastern mountains later tonight.

Due to antecedent precipitation, calm flow and skies clearing,
mainly across the lowlands overnight, cannot rule out the
formation of dense fog in some spots. However, drier air will
bring dewpoints into the upper to mid 30s, making it difficult
to reach necessary saturation.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving conditions may vary
from forecast. Dense fog may develop to produce IFR conditions
overnight..

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ