017
FXUS61 KRLX 081352
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
852 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing skies this afternoon with dry conditions through
Saturday. Another system brings more rain to round out the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 850 AM Friday...

Other than minor tweaks to hourly temperature and dew point
grids, no changes were necessary.

As of 620 AM Friday...

No significant changes needed at this time. Stratus will continue to
slink out of the region to the southeast this morning as dry air
progressively builds in.

As of 1220 AM Friday...

Weak background ascent courtesy of a 120KT H300 jet streak passing
overhead will continue to squeeze out patchy light drizzle from the
low cloud deck draped over the southeastern half of the forecast
area through a little before daybreak. Visibilities in this patchy
drizzle will be quite variable heading into daybreak. Subsidence
aloft on the back end of this feature begins to move overhead toward
dawn which should start to bring drizzle to a conclusion.  Remaining
low clouds slowly erode from the northwest late morning into early
this afternoon as drier low level air slowly works into the region
with mainly clear skies expected by late this afternoon and into the
overnight. Daytime highs today will run generally 8 to 10 degrees
warmer than normal for this time of the year.

Surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes tonight
and we may be a little too far away from the high center for more
significant fog development, but would expect at least some valley
fog to develop into Saturday morning.

Air quality from particulates that got trapped in front of
frontal passage yesterday morning seems to have improved, but
will need to check in with WV DEP in the morning prior to any
AQA changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Friday...

A brief period of dry weather is expected Saturday before a low
pressure system approaches from the Central Plains on Saturday
night, pushing an upper level disturbance over our area which will
give us our first chance at some much needed precipitation late
Saturday into early Sunday before a cold front quickly pushes
through the area Sunday night and exits our area by Monday morning,
with precipitation diminishing from west to east through mid-morning
Monday. Precipitation may linger across the mountains through the
early evening hours Monday but should taper off around sunset.

QPF totals for this event from Saturday night through Monday should
generally range between about three quarter inches to 1 inch across
much of the area with the heavier totals expected across our Ohio
and eastern Kentucky counties as well as the northeast WV mountains,
where up to 1.25 inches appears possible. Heavier amounts are
possible across the entire area for locations that experience any
embedded thunderstorms. Given lack of greater instability no severe
weather is expected at this time.

WPC has our area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from
Sunday morning through Monday morning which aligns well with peak
QPF for the event in our area.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the short term
until the front passes through the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 AM Friday...

A few isolated post frontal showers are possible to begin the
extended period as we migrate to northwest flow, mainly across the
mountains but it appears that the probability for measurable
precipitation is quite low at this time.

Our next chance at precipitation comes in the form of another low
pressure system and associated cold front sometime late Wednesday
night into early Thursday with WPC signaling that we could see
around a half inch of rain across most of the area. Rain should once
again diminish by Friday morning with a few lingering showers and
perhaps even some light snow flurries amid northwest flow in the WV
mountains through Friday night.

Temperatures will remain mild until Wednesday where WAA should bump
up the temperature a few degrees above normal just ahead of the next
frontal system before we return to normal or even just below normal
for the remainder of the period.

There also does appear to be some discrepancy`s regarding how
cold we will become after this system pushes east, which would
impact precipitation type primarily over the northeast
mountains, which could see some light snow if this colder trend
verifies (per the GFS), however, many other solutions are
showing that we will remain too warm for any frozen
precipitation so this will continue to be monitored as the event
nears.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Friday...

Remaining IFR/MVFR stratus near CRW/CKB/EKN/BKW continues to shift
southeast out of the region this morning, with some patchy valley
fog developing in its wake. Generally expect improvement to to VFR
13-15Z as fog mixes out and stratus exits. VFR conditions expected
this afternoon and into the early overnight. Valley fog is expected
to develop late tonight into Saturday morning, but weak northerly
flow may help to keep it off of the ridgetop terminals.

Winds generally light and northerly.

Winds generally light, favoring a northerly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low through 13Z for variable cig/vis in fog
and stratus, then high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Cig/vis will be highly variable this
morning in fog, especially near the edges of the more widespread
stratus deck.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EST 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Air Quality Alert until midnight EST Saturday night for WVZ005-
     006-013>015-024>026-033-034-515>518.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...28/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/SL
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...JP