894
FXUS61 KRLX 020633
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
233 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry with less muggy conditions today. Increasingly hot
heading into the holiday weekend with minimal precipitation
chances until early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Wednesday...

With clearing skies, light winds, and ample low level moisture from
earlier precipitation, fog was forming across the region this
morning. Expect this to continue into daybreak with some locally
dense fog possible, especially in valley locations - have issued an
SPS for foggy conditions for the morning commute.

Subsidence aloft associated with the eastern limb of sprawling high
pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley should serve to
suppress any additional diurnal showery activity over the lowlands
today, but couldn`t completely rule out an afternoon shower or
thunderstorm over the higher terrain where parcels may be able to
locally overcome the subsidence inversion via elevated heat source.
While it will feel a little less humid with the airmass change,
strong evapotranspiration once we break out to full sunshine today
will likely keep dew points in the mid to upper 60s.

With moist ground conditions again tonight, except valley fog to
form again fairly early in the overnight, although some mixing out
may be possible across the north heading into the morning commute as
gradients begin to tighten as high pressure begins to be suppressed
southward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

Quiet conditions are expected heading into the holiday weekend with
a weak and likely dry backdoor cold front expected during the day
Thursday. This will yield another shot of slightly drier air for the
4th and Saturday. Central guidance has a strong warm-up with daytime
highs across the lower elevations rising back into the upper 80s for
the 4th and low 90s by Saturday. Given the moist ground conditions,
this may be a little ambitious with the lack of strong warm
advection, but with our new regional grid editing policy will
not make any changes to undercut central guidance at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Wednesday...

Global models differ on how quickly ridging breaks down Sunday into
Monday in advance of an approaching cold front on the relatively low
amplitude northern stream, with central guidance largely holding off
any significant precipitation chances until Monday. Despite high
temperatures remaining in the upper 80s to mid 90s, afternoon mixed
dew points generally 70 degrees or less should keep indices below
heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Wednesday...

Clearing skies in the wake of an exiting cold front has allowed
fog to form across much of the area this morning. Expect this to
continue to expand into daybreak with widespread LIFR conditions
in either dense fog or very low stratus. Conditions are expected
to improve by 13-14Z this morning with a diurnal cumulus field
developing by early afternoon. While an isolated shower cannot
be ruled out closer to the higher terrain this afternoon, will
keep any VCSH or SHRA out of the BKW/EKN TAFs for now.

Winds remain light favoring a northwesterly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of dissipation of fog/stratus could
vary by an hour or so this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 07/02/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    L    M    M    M    L    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible in valley fog each morning through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP