647
FXUS61 KRLX 212330
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
730 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler today with an isolated shower possible. Strong cold
front approaches this weekend, bringing a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler and mainly dry next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

Lingering stratus from this morning is gradually beginning to
mix out across the lowlands, with some breaks in the clouds
expected throughout the afternoon and especially this evening.
Very isolated patchy drizzle remains possible over the next hour
or so. Otherwise, isolated showers (perhaps a thunderstorm or
two) remain possible in/near the higher terrain this
afternoon/evening given some modest buoyancy and low-low level
convergence where clearing has already occurred, with any
activity quickly diminishing by late this evening. Highs today
will generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s across the
lowlands, with mid 60s to mid 70s in the mountains.

Dry conditions will continue throughout tonight amid developing
valley fog. Given some cloud cover and antecedent dry conditions
across much of the area, have confined fog coverage to mainly
areas in/near river valleys, along with the higher terrain that
received appreciable rainfall yesterday. Low will be in the
low/mid 60s across the lowlands, with mid 50s to low 60s in the
mountains.

Mainly dry weather continues on Friday, but amid mostly sunny
skies and warmer temperatures (mid/upper 80s lowlands, 70s
mountains). Given weak low/mid level flow and some instability,
ISOLD showers/storms across the higher terrain remain possible
via lift associated with anabatic convergence, with dry weather
expected elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

Dry weather is expected Friday night as high pressure continues
to slide east of the forecast area, with lows in the low/mid
60s across the lowlands, with mid 50s to low 60s in the
mountains. Some river valley fog is expected once again.

The chance for showers/storms returns on Saturday and Sunday as
a cold front approaches/crosses the forecast area. A lower end
chance (20-60%) exists on Saturday as return flow and weak
surface convergence results in ISOLD to SCT activity. This
increases Saturday night and Sunday as the cold front
approaches/crosses, with likely PoPs currently progged in/near
the higher terrain, gradually becoming lower to the northwest.
Drier weather quickly moves in Sunday night following the
passage of the front. Organized severe weather remains unlikely,
but the potential for a few strong storms and locally heavy rain
is possible. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid
80s to 90 across the lowlands, with Sunday being a few degrees
cooler. Lows Sunday night will be in the 50s area-wide
following the passage of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

Mainly dry and significantly cooler weather is expected for the
start of the new work week following the passage of the cold
front on Sunday, as broad surface high pressure gradually noses
in from the west. High temperatures will generally be in the
70s across the lowlands, with upper 50s and 60s across the
mountains. Lows will range from the upper 40s and 50s in the
lowlands, with upper 30s and 40s in the mountains. River valley
fog is expected each night.

While mainly dry weather is expected, weak upper waves moving
through the broad/high amplitude upper trough across the eastern
CONUS will lead to the potential for ISOLD showers at times,
especially at times w/ a favorable moisture feed from the Great
Lakes and/or diurnal heating given cold pool aloft. Will stay
with central guidance for now, but the potential for some
showers does exist, especially in/near the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 729 PM Thursday...

Light northerly flow continues across the area this evening, and
winds will gradually become calm overnight after sunset. Then,
light winds out of the northeast can be expected Friday.

Widespread valley fog is expected to develop overnight, and fog
will also be common across the West Virginia higher elevations.
The onset of fog will occur by around 06Z Friday, lasting
through 13-14Z before dissipating.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium overnight with fog, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage, timing, and density overnight
may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in river valley fog Saturday morning and again
Monday morning onward. IFR possible in showers/thunderstorms
with a cold front Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...JMC