461
FXUS61 KRLX 021842
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
142 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence in accumulating snow across southeast OH,
northern WV, and the WV mountains on Tuesday. Lower confidence
in precipitation type and amount across central and southern
portions of the area where mixed precipitation is expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A system brings snow and mixed precipitation to the area
  Tuesday into Tuesday night. Minor travel impacts may occur.

- 2) Turning colder Wednesday night, with potential for very
  cold wind chills along the higher elevations of the northeast
  mountains.

- 3) A cold front Friday brings precipitation and more arctic
  air for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A system approaches from the southwest and travels east across the
area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Precipitation should overspread
the area by Tuesday afternoon, with snow expected to be the
dominant precipitation type across southeast OH, northern WV,
and the northeast WV mountains. Meanwhile, central and southern
portions of the forecast area may start out as snow and then
transition to a mix of rain and snow as temperatures warm during
the day. Precipitation turns back to mainly snow before
tapering off Tuesday night, though a brief period of freezing
rain could materialize for southeast WV and southwest VA.

With regard to precipitation amounts, highest confidence in a
couple inches of snow accumulation resides in the northern half
of the forecast area. Light accumulations may also be possible
to the south; however, confidence in amounts is much lower as
rain is expected to cut into overall amounts.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of
southeast OH and northwest WV where one to three inches of snow
may accrue on Tuesday. Another advisory is present over parts
of northeast WV where a few inches of snow may result in impacts
during the Tuesday evening commute.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the departure of a system, colder air returns to the
area Wednesday night. Overnight lows are expected to fall down
in to the single digits to teens across the area, with the
higher elevations of the northeast mountains potentially
experiencing wind chills as low as ten degrees below zero.

Will be monitoring the need for cold weather headlines Wednesday
night into early Thursday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

A wintry mix of snow and rain is expected to spread across the
area as a cold front pushes through on Friday. Precipitation
coverage should taper off from west to east in the wake of the
front Friday night. Much colder air sweeps in behind the front
allowing for a transition to all snow before precipitation
comes to an end.

This arctic air mass is also expected to reintroduce cold
temperatures for the weekend, along with the potential for very
cold chills, at least along the high elevations of the
northeast mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Ceilings should continue to thicken during the second half of
the day, with MVFR becoming widespread overnight. Further
deterioration in flight conditions to IFR or worse is expected
to occur as snow or a mix of rain and snow overspreads the area
on Tuesday. However, worst conditions may not arrive until
after 18Z.

Light southwest winds are expected through the majority of the
TAF period, with occasional gusts into the teens possible along
the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing MVFR this afternoon and evening
could vary. Onset time of precipitation Tuesday may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday in snow.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
     WVZ009-010-017-019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for WVZ011-020-030>032-039-040-522-523-525-526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
     OHZ075-076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20