911
FXUS61 KRLX 221850
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
150 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level system brings wintry precipitation, with
accumulating snow in the mountains, through Saturday. Dry
Sunday into early Monday. Rain returns late Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

A Blizzard Warning is in effect for Northwest Pocahontas and
Southeastern Randolph counties until 15Z Saturday where
significant snowfall and blowing snow, as a result of strong
winds will reduce visibility to below a quarter of a mile for a
prolonged period of time today into early Saturday and snowfall
totals of 1 to 2 feet with locally higher amounts possible. A
Winter Storm Warning will follow the Blizzard Warning from 15Z
Saturday until 00Z for additional snow accumulations and blowing
snow.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the surrounding mountain
counties in northeast and eastern WV until 00Z Sunday where,
area dependent, anywhere from 6 to 14 inches are expected with
higher totals in Southeastern Webster up to 2 feet. Blowing snow
can also be expected in these areas as well which could greatly
reduce visibility at times.

Lastly, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for areas
surrounding the warnings where snowfall totals of up to 5 inches
are expected in Taylor, Wyoming, Raleigh, Fayette, Nicholas and
the lower elevations of Pocahontas county. The advisory for
Taylor county expires at 21Z this afternoon and remaining areas
will expire at 00Z Saturday.

Elongated vertically stacked low centered over SE New York will
continue to push a trough over our area this afternoon and
evening as the surface low rotates about the upper level low
with these features allowing precipitation to begin to
overspread our area this afternoon as a result. Moisture should
also increase over the area as the shortwave pushes south
bringing moisture from the Great Lakes, allowing for ample QPF
along the windward slopes under strong northwest flow leading
to potentially significant snow totals.

Temperatures today should increase steadily under warm air
advection through the evening hours keeping us warmer than the
previous night for most of the area. Precipitation could start
out as wet snow in some areas across WV but should quickly
transition to all rain by late this afternoon for the lower
elevations. Gusty winds are likely to persist overnight for much
of the area with gusts of up to 25 mph possible across the
entire territory with higher gusts of up to 50 mph possible
across the higher elevations in the mountains.

Any lingering heavy snow or rain should quickly become lighter
by Saturday afternoon in the mountains. Elsewhere precipitation
should quickly diminish from west to east by around 12Z.

Temperatures for Saturday will be a lot milder with high
temperatures in the upper 40`s to near 50 for the lowlands and
low 30`s to low 40`s across the higher mountain terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Friday...

500-mb heights will begin to rise Sunday as high pressure
settles into the area, signaling the return of more seasonable
and drier weather across the region. Highs will rebound into the
middle and upper 50s across the lowlands and the upper 40s to
lower 50s in the mountains for Sunday afternoon. Some filtered
sunshine should also return. High pressure and dry
weather should continue into early Monday before the next system
brings another round of rain late Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Friday...

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to bring
rain into early Tuesday morning. Rain chances with this system
should continue into the early afternoon. The passage of a cold
front will then bring another return of chillier weather, with
afternoon temperatures only reaching the 40s, and even the 30s
in the higher elevations.

A southern stream system is expected to approach by Thursday,
Thanksgiving Day, bringing another round of rain to the region
areawide. Behind the system would be the return of northwest
flow and winterlike air for post-thanksgiving activities. Of
course, plenty of uncertainty remains, but we will have to
watch this potential as it unfolds. Confidence is low regarding
timing and impacts of this system at this time. Some models show
rain potentially transitioning into upslope snow showers
Thursday night or early Friday morning on the backside of this
system in the northern WV mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Precipitation will overspread the area through tonight ending
from west to east by early Saturday. Precipitation will likely
persist for a few hours longer in the northeast mountains,
potentially impacting KEKN. Precipitation should be mainly rain
outside of the higher elevations but could briefly fall as snow
early this afternoon. Otherwise, snow is expected across the
mountains through the period.

Winds should increase through this afternoon into the overnight
hours as an upper level disturbance pivots southward across the
area ushering in strong northwest flow on the backside of a
stacked low pressure system in New England. Winds should
generally be northwest to west- northwest with gusts of over
20kts expected at all TAF sites through tonight. Stronger winds
could impact KBKW with gusts as high as 30 kts but the strongest
winds should remain over the mountains.

Ceilings today will be MVFR at best for every site and yo-yo in
and out of MVFR/IFR through most of the afternoon and evening
however IFR is generally expected to persist at KBKW, KEKN,
KCKB through most, if not all, of the TAF period. Visibility
will also be restricted in any rain or snow showers that occur
with visibility below a quarter mile possible with heavier
showers or snow showers, especially at KEKN. Precipitation
should begin to taper off by Saturday afternoon but some light
rain or light snow could persist in the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions in
precipitation will vary. Gusty winds will fluctuate.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR ceilings at least in and near the mountains Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ034-
     515>517-519-524.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ039-
     040-521.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ518-520-
     522-525.
     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for WVZ523-526.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...28
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...28