784
FXUS61 KRLX 240659
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
259 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues through the end of the workweek for
much of the area, but the chance for mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms slowly increases.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Key Point:

* Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories continue across the
  lowlands and southern and lower mountainous terrain for heat
  indices in the 100s this afternoon, potentially the peak day
  of the heat wave.

High pressure surface and aloft sitting over the area early
this morning drifts just southwest of the area today, still
maintaining the high heat and humidity. The light flow
associated with the high was again allowing fog to form, and it
could become locally dense before dawn.

A cumulus field will form this afternoon, and then dissipate
near sunset this evening. The high should suppress convection
today, although the mid level inversion is not likely to
maintain a cap if a parcel were to become lifted. CAMs do
suggest an isolated cell could pop over/near far southern
portions of the area.

Slightly stronger flow tonight, as the high drifts a bit
southward, may tend to limit fog formation, compared with early
this morning.

Central guidance temperatures reflect the heat firmly entrenched
today, with a warm muggy night providing little relief again
tonight. Highs today were adjusted slightly lower in
collaboration with neighbors. Even with that, and a slight
downward adjustment of dew points for afternoon mixing, lowland
highs in the mid to upper 90s, and lowland dew points around 70
this afternoon will still propel heat indices up to the lower to
mid 100s across the lowlands, and the southern and lower
mountainous terrain, again this afternoon. The Extreme Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories are maintained as are.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

For Wednesday, high pressure weakens slightly with a disturbance
inbound from the northwest pushing along a frontal boundary to
our north. This combined with temperatures in the 90s will give
ample opportunity for some shower and thunderstorm activity
throughout the area as the high pressure system will turn into
a dirty high.

Any activity will be diurnal in nature with only slight to
chance PoPs for the afternoon and evening. SPC has us in a
marginal threat for severe thunderstorms which is located west
of the Tri-state area and going into the mountains. This
location is likely due because of the higher instability and
stronger flow to initiate strong to severe storm development.

On Thursday, temperatures will still be in the 90s allowing for
more convection to take place, mainly diurnal, as the
aforementioned system moves eastward and stays to our north.
Severe potential may be there, but for now, SPC has not issued
any threat areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

A very active pattern will begin and take place on Friday and
into the weekend with another disturbance approaching from the
northwest. This feature will consequently drag a cold front
near the area promoting more shower and thunderstorm activity
along with fleeting high pressure toward the south. Much of the
activity will take place during the afternoon and evenings with
higher probabilities during that time frame. We cannot rule out
non-diurnal activity as the area will still be under the heat
wave and with muggy and warm nights, activity may persist,
especially during Saturday with the frontal boundary near us.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

High pressure maintains mainly VFR conditions with light flow
surface and aloft amid the heat wave. The one exception is locally
dense river valley fog forming overnight/early this morning,
particularly for sites notorious for fog such as EKN and CRW.
Any fog that forms will quickly erode after daybreak.

A cumulus will form this this afternoon, but high pressure
should suppress deeper convection, and the cumulus field should
largely dissipate around sunset this evening.

Flow surface and aloft will be light and variable to light
anticyclonic, southwest over the middle Ohio Valley to north
over the central Appalachians, around high pressure centered
just southwest of the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may form earlier and/or be worse than
forecast again early this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 06/24/25
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Forecast and Record High Temperatures:

June 24:
KCRW: 96    96/1929
KHTS: 98   105/1930
KCKB: 95    97/1923
KPKB: 97    96/1930
KBKW: 92    90/1949
KEKN: 93    90/1949

June 25:
KCRW: 95   103/1930
KHTS: 97   101/1921
KCKB: 94    96/1930
KPKB: 95   100/1988
KBKW: 90    91/1914
KEKN: 92    92/1914

June 26:
KCRW: 93    99/1934
KHTS: 94    99/1954
KCKB: 91    96/1930
KPKB: 92    97/1952
KBKW: 88    93/1934
KEKN: 88    90/2005

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ024-025-032>034-
     039-040-515-517-519.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>031.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ066-067-083-084.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ101-102-105.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ103.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...TRM

CLIMATE...TRM/JZ