033
FXUS61 KRLX 040014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
814 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A system serves up showers and thunderstorms at times through
the weekend, with flooding increasingly likely for the Mid-Ohio
Valley region. Dry weather finally returns Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 813 PM Thursday...

The pesky stationary front remains parked along our western
periphery this evening allowing for showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms to continue sailing up from our southwest. Seeing
a bit of dry slot across the coalfields and central lowlands of
West Virginia though and a few lingering thunderstorms along our
eastern mountains. Radar/satellite obs do show more on the way
though. Latest HRRR run shows two heavy rounds of showers and
possibly a few storms tonight and Friday. One between midnight
and 3am as the front trudges slowly east, then another that
looks to move through between 6am and 11am as the front stalls
over our area.

Flooding risk continues into tonight with any additional rainfall
on top of already saturated soils. Locations of particular concern
are western and southwestern WV, northeastern KY, and our Ohio
counties. Current WPC QPF output shows a swath of 1 inch plus
across the Tri-State Area and southwestern WV overnight with
these rounds of rainfall.

As of 235 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

 * A stalled frontal boundary pierced through the heart of the
   forecast area will promote periods of moderate to heavy rain.

 * Renewed potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
   encroaches the southern coalfields through tonight.

After a brief lull in convective activity earlier today, a
stalled frontal boundary will serve as the catalyst for strong
to possibly severe thunderstorms shortly after this issuance and
into tonight. The 16Z surface analysis denotes the front to be
draped through parts of Ohio and down through the Tennessee
Valley. For now, this places our CWA in the warm sector of the
ongoing low pressure system and at the forefront for more severe
weather here in the next few hours.

Satellite imagery at the time of writing shows the bulk of the
Central Appalachians coated beneath cloud cover, while our
neighboring states to the south have achieved partial clearing
and cumulus development. As further clearing attempts to occur
across our coalfields, a similar trend in cumulus development
could arise and set off renewed potential for severe
thunderstorms through the course of the afternoon and evening.
If proper destabilization can take shape, coupled with strong
low to mid level flow still prevalent via the KRLX VAD Wind
Profile, all severe hazard types will remain at play with
activity today.

For the rest of the forecast period, the stalled front will
continue to wobble in and around the Ohio River Valley as
impulses of renewed moisture ride along the boundary. Where the
front sets up during periods of heavier rainfall will yield the
concerns for flash and prolonged flooding. The first wave of
higher rainfall amounts will be shuttled by the Tri-State area
and the northern outskirts of the CWA this evening into tonight.
This location has already been primed by antecedent rainfall
both yesterday and today, and could be enough to send local
creeks and streams further out of their banks. There is also
growing concern for additional counties in northeast West
Virginia that may observe slightly higher rainfall amounts than
previously anticipated between now and into the weekend.
Therefore, elected to expand the Flood Watch up the I-79
corridor through Sunday morning.

The afternoon model suite hints at a lull in precipitation on
Friday as the upper level jet noses northward. This initiates a
bit of a dry slot to occur in the southern coalfields and
portions of the lowlands by the late afternoon and evening.
Friday highs could branch into the upper 70s/low 80s for the
extreme southern portions of the forecast area, while blanketing
clouds across the north maintain peak temperatures in the
50s/60s. There still remains uncertainty regarding radar
activity on Friday, but elected to agree with neighboring
offices with placing the highest POPs across the Muskingum River
basin and northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1155 AM Thursday...

A warm front will lift north of the area Saturday morning, and much
of Saturday currently looks quiet across West Virginia and southwest
Virginia with warm, dry weather. In fact, the middle and upper 80s
can be expected across the West Virginia lowlands during the
afternoon as clouds mix with some sunshine. However, portions of
southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky will likely see showers and
thunderstorms, especially the far northwestern tier of our coverage
area. SPC currently has a slight risk of severe storms across parts
of these areas Saturday. This threat will limited by lower amounts
of instability, but shear will remain plentiful for thunderstorm
organization (40-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear).

The main cold front will begin to approach Saturday night, and rain
chances will return from west to east. Rainfall could be heavy at
times overnight, especially across southeast Ohio, where WPC
currently has a slight risk of excessive rainfall forecast. In
addition, the heavy rainfall will also lead to an increased threat
of river flooding, especially along and west of the Ohio River.

Rain will track across West Virginia Sunday, with an additional 0.50-
1.00" possible across the state (heavier amounts west, lighter
amounts east). An additional 1.00-1.50" will be possible across
southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1155 AM Thursday...

High pressure will finally build back into the region behind this
extended stretch of unsettled weather. Monday and Tuesday will be
much colder than normal with highs only in the upper 40s to lower
50s each day in a post-frontal airmass. Temperatures should return
to the 50s and lower 60s Wednesday with a ridge building back over
the Ohio Valley. The next chance of precipitation will be Thursday
will a potential upper-level low approaching from the west, but much
uncertainty exists at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 747 PM Thursday...

Seeing a brief reprieve from heavy rainfall across the area at
this hour. Then expecting off and on showers of rain and a
couple embedded thunderstorms, some heavy at times, overnight
thanks to a nearly stationary boundary hanging around the area.
Visibility and ceilings will vary quite a bit overnight as areas
outside precipitation and convection will likely be VFR. MVFR
and IFR conditions expected in and around any activity. Any
thunderstorms that form could contain damaging wind gusts,
hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall.

Rainfall that continues into Friday morning will likely be on
the heavier side with MVFR and IFR restrictions coded into the
TAF at most sites. Models do show a bit of a break after ~18z
Friday, but there is medium confidence as to where this will
occur due to the fronts variable positioning. Another round of
heavy showers looks to move in Friday night into Saturday.

Winds will mostly be light and variable to calm at most sites
tonight and tomorrow, though a more uniform SW`rly direction is
likely at BKW.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of
thunderstorms and heavy rain may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/04/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday
night through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     027>032-039-040.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC