211
FXUS61 KRLX 070541
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
141 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to forecast. Still anticipating at least
a low risk of flash flooding with a cold front on Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quieter weather is expected through mid week, amid a gradual
warming trend.

2) A cold front brings showers and storms back to the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. Localized flooding may be
possible due to heavy downpours and training storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Quiet weather is expected across the Middle Ohio Valley as a ridge
builds east today and Tuesday. Drier conditions are also expected to
prevail for Wednesday, though the ridge begins to recede as a front
approaches from the northwest.

Daytime temperatures start out a touch above normal and then trend
warmer by a few degrees each day, potentially buoying highs into the
low 90s for parts of the lowlands by mid week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Chances of showers and thunderstorms overspread the area as a cold
front approaches Wednesday night and then progresses southeast
through the area on Thursday.

Precipitable water values in the neighborhood of 1.5 to 2 inches are
likely to support heavy downpours within storms. This, combined with
potential for training storms, will prompt at least a marginal risk
of excessive rainfall on Thursday. In addition to moisture, a
decent amount of shear is likely to be present in the vicinity
of the front; however, model soundings continue to exhibit an
unimpressive amount of instability which should curtail the risk
of severe weather.

Widespread activity tapers off behind the front Thursday night,
though lingering moisture and the arrival of a shortwave could
prompt a few additional showers and storms at times late week
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moderate flow at, or just above, the surface should hinder fog
development this morning, though patches of MVFR/IFR are not
out of the question. Any fog-related restrictions that do
materialize will improve around sunrise.

After 12Z Monday, winds will be light and westerly. Ceilings
could approach low-end VFR to MVFR with a cumulus field
developing during the day, then predominantly VFR conditions
are expected from 00Z to 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium through 12Z, then High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog extent, density and timing could vary
early this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 09/07/26
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible within river valley fog each morning
through Wednesday. IFR is also possible with showers/storms on
Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20