567
FXUS61 KRLX 021857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
257 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and mainly dry conditions through the weekend. Gradual
warming trend with a return of humidity next week, with more
widespread shower and thunderstorm chances increasing by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

A seasonably cool weekend across the region as high pressure
gradually traverses north of the region. At present, a weak
shortwave disturbance is providing mid/upper level clouds
across the northern CWA, while further south, lingering low-
level moisture has resulted in BKN/OVC stratus lifting into
stratocu. Cloud cover further south will continue to gradually
erode, with the potential of a few isolated showers across
central WV southward through the afternoon into early tonight.
Highs today will top out in the mid 70s to 80 for the lowlands,
with mid 60s to low 70s across the mountains. This gives way to
a quiet overnight with some developing fog, primarily across the
deeper valleys of VA/WV.

Sunday will feature warmer temperatures (~ 5 degrees) amid a
FEW/SCT fair weather Cu field. A few isolated showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder remain possible across far southern
WV and southwest VA. Additionally, smoke from distant Canadian
wildfires suspended aloft will create a somewhat milky looking
sky at times, but not expecting much impact at the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

High pressure will continue to shift northeast of the region
throughout the beginning of the work week, resulting in return
flow that brings temperatures closer to normal on Monday/Tuesday
amid a fair amount of sunshine. Highs in the lowlands are
progged for the low/mid 80s, with upper 60s and 70s in the
mountains. Mainly dry weather continues on Monday (ISO
shower/storm possible far south/west), with the chance for
showers/storms increasing slightly to 20-40% on Tuesday
afternoon into early Tuesday night across much of the forecast
area as moisture advection increases. Some guidance does depict
a higher probability for showers/storms on Tuesday, but for the
time being will stick with central guidance. Low temperatures
will be seasonably cool Sunday night, warming a few degrees for
Monday/Tuesday nights. Some river valley fog is possible
Monday/Tuesday mornings across VA/WV.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

Moisture feed from the Gulf will result in an increasingly humid
airmass across the region from mid to late in the work week amid
seasonable temperatures, with highs progged generally in the
mid 80s for the lowlands, with 70s across the higher terrain.
A relatively weakly forced pattern amid increasing instability
looks to be in play, favoring the typical diurnal shower/thunderstorm
chance, generally 20-50% during the afternoon and evening hours.
Low temperatures will be near seasonable values, with some
valley fog possible each night depending on prior rainfall and
overnight cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

MVFR persists this afternoon in spots across central and
especially southern locations courtesy of stratocu, with VFR
CIGs at northern locations. Lingering MVFR should continue to
gradually lift into VFR throughout the afternoon into the
evening. A few isolated light showers are possible across the
central/south today into early tonight.

The main concern for the overnight will be developing valley fog
in spots across VA and WV, resulting in some MVFR/IFR/LIFR
restrictions. Current thinking is that fog primarily impacts
CRW/EKN, with a lower end probability for BKW/PKB. Any fog that
develops lifts/dissipates from ~ 11-13Z, bringing a return of
widespread VFR outside of the potential for brief MVFR with
stratocu Sunday morning.

Light northeast or east flow is expected today, slightly veering
overnight or going calm. Light east or southeast flow develops
on Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, extent, and intensity of fog
tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with fog Monday/Tuesday mornings
in the deeper valleys of VA/WV. Brief IFR conditions are
possible Wednesday and Thursday in scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...GW