659
FXUS61 KRLX 262336
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
636 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Turning colder and windier tonight and into Thanksgiving. Some
mountain snow showers are possible Thursday night. Dry for the
start of the weekend before becoming active next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 PM Wednesday...

Moisture and colder air wrapping around a low-pressure system
traversing the Great Lakes will impact the region tonight into
Thursday morning. While radar imagery indicates very light
precipitation across the northwest, much of this is virga and
not reaching the ground. Isolated sprinkles are possible at CKB
and PKB overnight, though confidence is low. Across the
northeast mountains, temperatures dropping into the mid-20s may
support light snow into Thursday morning.

The remainder of the area will see ceilings (5,0006,000 ft)
overnight into Thursday morning. Clearing will progress from
southwest to northeast by Thursday afternoon; however, upslope
snow showers may bring MVFR ceilings back to the mountains
Thursday night into Friday.

A tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will keep winds
elevated. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots are expected at most terminals
tonight through Thursday, with stronger winds likely in the
higher WV mountains (where a Wind Advisory is in effect).

As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * Plummeting temperatures and breezy to strong wind gusts march
   into the area after a parade of cold frontal passages.

 * A Wind Advisory will be in effect for the higher WV mountains
   late tonight into Thursday afternoon for possible gusts up to
   55 mph.

 * A blustery and cold day is on tap for Thanksgiving Day.

A parade of cold fronts marching through today will bolster
elevated surface winds and plummeting temperatures for the
forecast period. At the time of writing, the first front was now
analyzed east of the Appalachian mountains, with the secondary
front easily denoted on radar with a line of showers passing
over the I-79 corridor. Behind this front will be the sharp drop
in temperatures and the uptick in low level winds.

Starting with winds, a tightened pressure gradient accompanying
a vertically stack low pressure system that sent forth these
cold fronts will be firmly entrenched overhead through the
period. So far here at the weather office, the strongest wind
gust observed in the wake of the front has been 28 mph, and that
will remain common across the forecast area through this
evening. Opted to continue the Special Weather Statement for
winds ranging between 25 to 35 mph through 7 PM to highlight
this potential for any holiday travelers. Winds are anticipated
to grow even stronger along the mountain range tonight into
Thursday, with gusts up to 55 mph potentially. A Wind Advisory
will be in place from 7 PM tonight through 11 AM Thursday in
Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties to capture
the timeframe of when these elevated winds are mostly likely to
occur. Breezy winds continue areawide through the Thanksgiving
holiday.

Temperatures at the onset of the forecast this afternoon will
begin in the mid to upper 50s in the lowlands and 40s along the
mountains, but will quickly tumble downward through the course
of the evening due to strong cold air advection ushering in
along gusty post-frontal flow. Local residents and visitors to
the forecast area will wake up to low temperatures in the
teens/20s Thanksgiving morning. Coupled with lingering breezy
winds, conditions will feel even colder, so bundle up
accordingly for any Thanksgiving morning festivities. Daytime
temperatures will struggle to recover on Thursday, with many
spots in the higher terrain remaining below freezing throughout
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

The combination of ongoing northwesterly flow and increasing
moisture fetch off the Great Lakes will promote a period of
upslope snow showers along the northeast WV mountains beginning
Thursday night. Forecast soundings hint at the thermal profile
growing optimal for snow production shortly after sunset
Thursday evening and remaining the case into midday Friday.
Moisture level within the dendritic growth zone should be
enough to squeeze out a few tenths of an inch of snow across
our eastern forecast zones, with locally higher amounts between
one to two inches for spots above 3,500ft AGL. Approaching high
pressure will gradually cut off optimal lake enhanced moisture
Friday afternoon as winds diminish in intensity and become more
westerly.

This transient high pressure feature will provide a brief window
of dry weather Friday into Saturday. However, hot on its tracks
will be the next disturbance that will round out the month of
November. Some low end chances for precipitation begins to move
back into the Middle Ohio Valley late Saturday afternoon, but
the brunt of this system will be featured in the long term
forecast period.

Temperatures will range in the 30s and 40s during the daytime
and the teens to low 20s throughout the period. Sub-zero wind
chills could transpire along the higher mountain ridges Friday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

The end of the weekend, and the month of November, will feature
an evolving low pressure system ejecting off the leeward side of
the Rocky Mountains. The forecast area will begin to see the
impacts from this system at the juncture of the short term/long
term forecast periods, but should bolster more widespread
potential for precipitation Saturday night and into the second
half of the weekend. This disturbance won`t be done with us just
yet as we turn the page into December, with unsettled weather
continuing into Monday and Tuesday as well.

A battle of temperatures at the onset of this disturbance could
bode a period of a rain/snow mix overnight Saturday as
precipitation races across the area. Thermal profiles are
currently suggestive of a brief period of snow before quickly
transitioning over to rain heading into Sunday for the lower
elevations. Fluctuations in temperatures will serve
up overnight chances for snow Sunday night and Monday night,
then returning to rain after daybreak. In the mountains,
temperatures remain cold enough along the ridges and foothills to
continue supporting snow through the duration of this event. WPC
has already painted a 10 to 30 percent chance of winter weather
along the Appalachian mountains in their Day 7 (Tuesday/Tuesday
night) analysis, so this will certainly be something to monitor
over the next week.Will continue to hash out the potential
impacts with this system with future forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 PM Wednesday...

Moisture and colder air wrapping around a low-pressure system
traversing the Great Lakes will impact the region tonight into
Thursday morning. While radar imagery indicates very light
precipitation across the northwest, much of this is virga and
not reaching the ground. Isolated sprinkles are possible at CKB
and PKB overnight, though confidence is low. At EKN,
temperatures dropping into the mid-20s may support light snow
and MVFR ceilings.

The remainder of the area will see VFR ceilings (5,0006,000
ft) overnight into Thursday morning. Clearing will progress from
southwest to northeast by Thursday afternoon, returning
widespread VFR conditions; however, upslope snow showers may
bring MVFR ceilings back to the mountains Thursday night into
Friday.

A tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will keep winds
elevated. Gusts may peak up to 33 knots are expected at elevated
terminals, and up to 24 knots rest of terminals overnight. Winds
will pick up once again Thursday morning, but it will be not as
gusty as today.

While strong winds aloft create a potential for Low- Level Wind
Shear (LLWS)particularly at EKNpersistent surface gusts should
promote mixing and help mitigate significant shear.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Surface gust intensity may oscillate through
the period, which could allow LLWS at EKN overnight. Timing of
sub-VFR ceilings may also vary for mountain TAF sites.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05/ARJ
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05/ARJ