015
FXUS61 KRLX 291006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
506 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry on Saturday amid high pressure. A system Saturday
night into Sunday could start as a wintry mix. More wintry
weather possible for Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 AM Saturday...

A high pressure system will provide mostly dry weather today.
This evening, there is a chance that some precipitation could
make it into southeast Ohio and northeastern Kentucky. If it
did, it could be in the form of snow. A cold front will then
move through the area Sunday morning. There is a possibility that a wintry
mix could occur with the initial precipitation before becoming
rain. With strong southerly winds, think that any impacts in the
western lowlands would be very limited. However, the eastern
slopes of the West Virginia mountains have a strong inversion
that should prevent the winds from scouring out the colder air.
This will allow for a freezing rain scenario for late Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory
for this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Saturday...

A cold front will move through the area Sunday morning. There
is a possibility that a wintry mix could occur with the initial
precipitation before becoming rain. With strong southerly winds,
think that any impacts in the western lowlands would be very
limited. However, the eastern slopes of the West Virginia
mountains have a strong inversion that should prevent the winds
from scouring out the colder air. This will allow for a freezing
rain scenario for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Will
issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this area.

Some minor upslope snow is a possibility late Sunday into
Sunday night behind the system.

A high pressure system will then briefly build in for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1235 AM Saturday...

Another system will effect the area Monday night into Tuesday.
Models have the surface low from this system tracking south of
the region. Models are starting to agree on a warm wedge
developing, although there are some disagreements on the
strength and size of the warm wedge. Even so, initial
precipitation Monday night could be a wintry mix. Areas such as
southeast Ohio and the eastern slopes of the West Virginia
mountains have the best chance at significant winter weather.
This is another system that definitely bears monitoring.

Models then considerably disagree for Wednesday through Friday,
leaving a low confidence in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 505 AM Saturday...

A high pressure system will provide VFR conditions today.

This evening will be mostly VFR, although some MVFR can not be
ruled out over southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky due to a
chance of snow. Late Saturday night, precipitation from an
approaching cold front will cause some restrictions. There is a
possibility that a wintry mix could occur with the initial
precipitation before becoming rain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Snow showers may or may not form over
northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio this evening. Timing and
intensity of restrictions late Saturday night could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 11/29/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in areas of rain and/or snow Sunday
morning, and again Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to noon EST Sunday for
     WVZ516-518-523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...RPY