658
FXUS61 KRLX 221855
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
155 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure brings a return of dry weather for the balance
of the weekend. A low pressure system tracks into the Great Lakes
Tuesday into Wednesday bringing rain. Much colder for Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

Dry conditions continue to quickly build further south/east
across the CWA this afternoon following the passage of a cold
front and associated shortwave earlier today. A few isolated
showers or patchy drizzle remains possible this afternoon along
the windward slopes of the mountains given upslope flow, with
dry conditions returning area-wide thereafter. Highs this
afternoon will be near to slightly above normal, with 50s to low
60s across the lowlands, while upper 40s to mid 50s in the
mountains, where some patchy fog remains possible. Some
clearing will occur across the far northwest, while mostly
cloudy skies continue southeast of the Ohio River.

Dry weather continues overnight amid the potential for some fog
development, primarily in the valleys, where skies are able to
clear. This favors areas northwest of a general line from CRW to
CKB, but overall confidence is somewhat low. Fog that does
develop across the north may gradually mix out later tonight as
low-level flow steadily increases in advance of a weak cold
front approaching the northern CWA. Patchy fog is also possible
across the mountains with stratus. Lows tonight will generally
range from 30 to the low 40s, with the warmest temperatures
being across the central/southern lowlands.

The aforementioned cold front will gradually progress through
the CWA on Sunday, providing a gradual wind shift to W/WNW and
the potential for a highly isolated light shower or two across
the far north/east. Partly to mostly cloudy skies early in the
day will gradually transition to mostly sunny by late in the
day. Did tweak wind gusts up a bit given some clearing during
peak mixing hours, with breezy conditions expected across the
lowlands (15-25 MPH), while gusty conditions across the mountains
(25-40 MPH). Highs on Sunday will be nearly the same as today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

High pressure and dry weather will dominate this period as an
upper-level split flow pattern develops. Sunday will feature the
passage of a weak, moisture-starved reinforcing cold front. This
feature is expected to cross the region dry, serving mainly to
reinforce the seasonable air mass and perhaps generate a few
transient clouds.

Monday remains dry as the surface high shifts eastward.
Temperatures will moderate, with highs climbing back into the
60s across the lowlands as return flow establishes ahead of the
next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

The next significant chance for precipitation arrives early to
mid-week. A pair of disturbances is progged to emerge from the
Rockies, with consensus shifting toward the southern stream
disturbance being the primary driver for local weather.
Numerical guidance, excluding the operational GFS, suggests a
lee low will form and maintain connection with upper-level
support, tracking into the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday
afternoon.

The atmospheric response to this low track includes the
development of a 40-50KT low-level jet at H850, with its nose
oriented across the Middle Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning. While
instability looks to be limited to nil, limited much of a
thunder threat, strong low-level mass convergence, moisture
advection, and isentropic lift driven by the LLJ should be
sufficient to produce widespread light rain starting Tuesday
morning and continuing into Tuesday evening.

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
While this feature will squeeze out additional precipitation,
total rainfall amounts appear modest. In the wake of the front,
parcel trajectories appear more westerly than previously
forecast. These trajectories should keep the bulk of lake-
enhanced moisture to the north of the forecast area during the
day on Thanksgiving.

The primary story for the latter half of the week will be the
temperature change. Following the cold frontal passage Wednesday
night, a significantly colder air mass will advect into the
region. High temperatures on Thanksgiving Day are expected to
struggle to exit the 40s, with lows dropping well into the 20s
and 30s. Dry but chilly conditions will persist into Friday as
high pressure settles over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM Saturday...

A few ISOLD showers or patchy drizzle is possible this afternoon
in/near the mountains, potentially affecting BKW/EKN over the
next hour or so, but not expecting any VSBY restrictions.
Otherwise, widespread MVFR CIGs at present will gradually return
to VFR across the far north (PKB), while potentially lingering
further south through the evening (CKB/CRW/HTS), and even
through much of the night at BKW/EKN, where brief IFR could even
occur. Where clearing does occur this evening and tonight, some
fog development is anticipated, but given some low clouds
lingering around, confidence in MVFR/IFR fog is low, with the
`greatest` potential being at CKB/HTS/PKB and perhaps CRW, while
cloud cover at BKW/EKN should prevent fog development. Increased
low-level flow later tonight may gradually mix out fog that has
developed across northern locations as the night progresses.
Otherwise, fog should quickly lift/dissipate by ~13Z. VFR then
persists through the end of the TAF period save the potential
for very brief MVFR stratocu at CKB/EKN late morning and early
afternoon.

Light northwest flow this afternoon will go light and variable
or calm overnight. WSW to W flow develops Sunday morning into
the afternoon. Gusts of 15-25 kts are possible at all terminals
save HTS, with gusts of 25-35 kts possible in the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low tonight with fog/stratus, medium otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIG restrictions today and tonight may vary
from the forecast. Fog development tonight may be less than
currently forecast. Brief MVFR is possible late Sunday morning
into Sunday afternoon at CKB/EKN with stratocu.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    H    L    M    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with valley fog Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GW