793
FXUS61 KRLX 012341
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
641 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in a wintry mess during the Monday morning commute
over portions of the middle Ohio valley and into central West
Virginia has increased just enough to go with a winter weather
advisory there.

Confidence in a wintry mess as a cold air damming snow and ice
event sets up over the higher terrain and east to southeast
facing slopes of the mountains, and the upper Greenbrier Valley,
Monday into Tuesday morning, has increased enough to go with a
winter weather advisory there, with ice accretion being the
bigger concern.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Despite model disagreement, snow and freezing rain could
  cause impacts Monday into Tuesday.

- 2) Rounds of rain with a stout warming trend is expected
  behind this system through the balance of the week. Hydro
  issues may arise by end of the week due to rainfall and, in
  the mountains, snow melt.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A flat wave will scoot across mainly southern and central
portions of the area Monday, and then additional waves will
track progressively farther north Monday night through Tuesday.

With cold air filtering into the area in the wake of a cold
front that crossed overnight and early this morning, the column
is likely to be cold enough for snow as precipitation arrives
from the west first thing Monday morning. Warming above freezing
takes place aloft a little sooner than at the surface Monday,
giving rise to a brief period of freezing rain, before
precipitation changes to all rain. This would occur in a south
to north fashion, although the typical warm wedge created by
east to southeast low level flow will encourage the change over
first over central West Virginia, and then back over the middle
Ohio Valley, where snowfall is maximized at one to close to two
inches.

Ice accretion appears to be maximized at a few hundredths of an
inch in portions of northeast Kentucky Monday morning, where
warming aloft takes place earliest, but a brief period of
freezing rain and even sleet is possible anywhere in the
transition Monday morning.

A similar setup is expected in the northern and central
mountains just a bit later Monday morning. There, however, a
classic cold air damming wedge sets up as high pressure slides
southward east of the mountains. This will keep surface
temperatures near and below freezing from the Greenbrier Valley
up the east to southeast facing slopes to the higher ridges as
the second wave comes across Monday night into Tuesday morning.
This prolonged period of near to below freezing surface
temperatures, beneath warming aloft, will bring more of a
freezing rain threat than a snow threat, with ice accretion
maximized at a tenth to even a couple of tenths of ice
accretion during this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Warmer but at times wet weather takes hold Tuesday afternoon
through the balance of the work week. A series of warm waves
takes a warm front through and north of the area through
Wednesday night as stout ridging builds over the southeastern
states, eventually taking the heavier rainfall north with it.

It appears that a short wave trough riding over top of the
southeastern ridge will be just stout enough to drag a weak cold
front through the area Thursday night, bringing a brief uptick
in the rain showers, and then a lull Friday and/or Friday
night.

Finally, the southeastern ridge breaks down next weekend,
allowing a short wave trough to drag a weak cold front through,
or at least into, the forecast area. Models appear to be
sluggish with this front, as the mid/upper-level flow either
remains high zonal, or even maintains a broad long wave trough
position out over central and western portions of the U.S.

Repeated rounds of stout rainfall this week, and mountain snow
melt, could eventually give rise to high water and river rises.
The most persistent and therefore heaviest rainfall will be in
northwestern portions of, and northwest of, the forecast area,
where up to three or four inches of rainfall can drain into the
headwaters of our Ohio Rivers. One mitigating factor in our area
is that there will be minimal intersection of the heavier
rainfall and the mountain snow melt.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions expected through at least 12Z Monday.
High level clouds will spread across the area overnight,
thickening into mid to low level clouds by Monday morning.

MVFR ceilings should materialize first along the central
mountains including BKW by 12Z. Additional MVFR ceilings will
accompany mix bag of precipitation, to include FZRA at HTS from
12Z through 18Z. Periods of IFR ceilings will be possible by 15Z
at HTS, spreading east to affect CRW through 21Z Monday
afternoon. On the other hand, conditions at PKB, CKB and EKN
will become MVFR Monday morning, staying like that for most of
the day. However, as snow should be the primary precipitation
type, reductions in visibility can be anticipated.

High clouds will lower and thicken tonight, ahead of a system
approaching from the west. This system will bring a light wintry
mix of precipitation Monday morning after 12Z. Ceilings will
lower to MVFR, even IFR across the southern sites HTS, CRW and
BKW.

Surface flow will become light north to northeast tonight
veering to light east to northeast on Monday. Northerly surface
flow at BKW will become light southeast overnight tonight, and
a bit gusty by late morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation arrival and its
type Monday morning could vary, along with associated lowering
of ceilings and visibility.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible Monday afternoon with snow and rain,
changing to rain, freezing rain in the mountains, and then with
freezing rain in the mountains Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Monday for
     WVZ006>009-014-016-017.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday
     for WVZ516-518-520-522>524-526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Monday for
     OHZ075-083>087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Monday for
     KYZ101>103.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ