580
FXUS61 KRLX 250846
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
346 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry start, a cold front brings rain later today into
early Tuesday, mainly tonight. Rain and mountain snow possible
to end the week. Colder with snow possible for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

A low pressure system over the midwest early this morning
crosses the Great Lakes today and tonight, bringing a cold front
into the middle Ohio Valley tonight, and then across the
remainder of the forecast area overnight tonight.

Stratocumulus ahead of the system overspreads the area today at
least as quickly as high and mid cloud, and may actually become
deep enough, aoa 5kft, for warm advection sprinkles or light
rain showers across northern portions of the forecast area by
midday.

Otherwise, rain showers cross during a several hour period late
tonight across the middle Ohio Valley, and then overnight
tonight farther east across the remainder of the forecast area.
While not heavy, this will be another wetting rain, with one to
two tenths of an inch rainfall of across across most of the
area, but potentially three to five tenths in the northern
mountains on terrain enhancement, particularly as the front
passes by.

With at peak a straight moist adiabatic sounding just ahead of
the cold front with very minimal MUCAPE late at night, the
chance for thunder with this cold front appears nil.

The rain will be over for all but perhaps the northern
mountains of WV by dawn Tuesday, but low stratocumulus will
linger for a gray start to the day throughout the area.

Temperatures today will top out a little higher than on Sunday,
with again a north to south gradient in the warm advection
across the area, highest south. After a mild evening ahead of
the cold front, cold advection overnight tonight takes
temperatures down to the mid to upper 30s west of the Ohio
River, and the highest mountain peaks east, and otherwise lower
to mid 40s along and east of the Ohio River.






As of 115 AM Monday...

GOES-R imagery and surface observations were beginning to
suggest mist developing in the better sheltered valleys in and
near the mountains. This should remain primarily an aviation
concern as long as the fog does not become dense in more than a
few valleys, which increasing low level flow should preclude,
amid a notable ridge/valley temperature split.

As of 715 PM Sunday...

No major changes were made to the forecast, as things appear to
be generally on track. Did tweak tonight`s low temps down a bit
in some spots based on current conditions and trends.

As of 1250 PM Sunday...

The forecast area has branched back out to pleasant sunshine
this afternoon in the midst of surface high pressure. One last
batch of low hanging stratus was scattering out across north-
central West Virginia at the time of writing while high cirrus
periodically passes overhead from the west. Low level flow out
of the southwest has established itself at most weather stations
this afternoon, which will tap into warming temperatures to
round out the weekend. Charleston and Huntington had already
surpassed 50 degrees at noon and is projected to plateau into
the mid to upper 50s for the day. For our northern and eastern
zones, lingering morning cloud deck prompted a delay in warming
temperatures, but should still rise into the upper 40s in the
northern lowlands and the 40s along the higher terrain.

High pressure will retain residency over the region tonight
under mostly clear skies. Morning lows will topple down into the
30s across the board, but should quickly ramp up into the
50s/60s on Monday ahead of our next disturbance.

The surface high will swiftly depart to the east throughout the
day Monday as the next low pressure system/cold front aims for
the forecast area late in the near term period. Strengthening
southwesterly flow will yield the aforementioned warm up into
the 50s and 60s during the day, followed by increasing cloud
coverage by the late afternoon into the early afternoon. Higher
resolution model guidance depict rain sprinting ahead of the
front and could arrive to the lower Ohio Valley as early as
mid-morning. This will then slowly graze our northwestern zones
throughout the day from southwest to northeast, then establish
further into the forecast area in the afternoon and evening as
the front inches closer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

The start of this period, Tuesday morning, will have some
lingering rain showers in the northeast mountains through the
morning. By the afternoon, the area dries out as the surface low
to the north pulls further away toward the northeast. The cold
front will exit by this point as well with zonal flow settling
in not promoting strong cold air advection, therefore realizing
about average temperatures for the day with clearing skies and
plenty of sunshine.

The dry spell will be short lived but last through Wednesday
afternoon before chances of rain become a reality by the
evening with rain sliding in from west to east. The culprit
will be a developing low pressure system just to our west which
will amplify and turn into a full system virtually on top of us
which is what models the NAM and EURO have planned for us. The
GFS and Canadian NH have the low developing on our southern
border, but nevertheless stratiform type rain will spread
across the area either way.

With the low forecast to track northeast filtering cold air
in from the northwest as wrap around flow advects in the colder
air and keeps precipitation ongoing into Thursday. Mainly rain
for most of the area, however the highest peaks and ridges in
the northeast mountains may see some mix of snow/rain overnight
Wednesday and during the daytime on Thursday. As temperatures
drop further overnight Thursday an upper low will provide
chances of precipitation which will likely turn to all snow by
Friday morning, however the change may take longer depending on
how fast the cold air infiltrates the area at all levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

Starting Friday, the aforementioned upper low will influence
the area into Saturday with snow, but by Saturday afternoon,
most of the activity will be confined to the northeast
mountains. A short break according to models before a
disturbance is forecast to develop to our west and impact the
area for Sunday. This trend will keep chances of snow as cold
Arctic air mass enters the region as the upper low dips further
south into our region dropping temperatures to well below
average for this time of year. Daytime highs will barely break
freezing for Sunday and on Monday temperatures are forecast to
be below freezing areawide with lows in the teens, and possibly
single digits for the northeast mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 AM Monday...

GOES-R imagery and surface observations were beginning to
suggest mist developing in the better sheltered valleys in and
near the mountains. However, increasing low level flow should
preclude MVFR or worse visibility restrictions overnight.

After a VFR morning, stratocumulus spreading into the area
Monday will lower to MVFR along the Ohio River in the
afternoon, and farther east in the evening.

Rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front will quickly
spread across the area from 00Z Tuesday or shortly thereafter
along the Ohio River, to 02-03Z Tuesday CKB and EKN. This will
lower ceilings to IFR and visibility to MVFR across the middle
Ohio Valley and into central WV by 06Z Tuesday.

Light south to southeast surface flow overnight will become
southwest on Monday, with gusts into the 15-20 kt range by
midday Monday, and continuing into Monday night. Light southwest
flow aloft will gradually increase to moderate southwest through
Monday. Low level wind shear is possible Monday if/where/when
gusts do not mix down to the surface.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog still cannot b ruled out overnight for
EKN and even CRW and PKB. Coded for HTS, LLWS may also develop
at additional sites before sunrise Monday morning. Timing and
degree of worsening conditions Monday afternoon and night may
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 11/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR ceilings and low visibility possible overnight Monday night
into Tuesday, as a cold front crosses with rain showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...TRM