790
FXUS61 KRLX 061649
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1249 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today, some may
contain damaging wind and large hail. Heavy rain will be
possible with any convection today and tonight. Active weather
persists into the weekend as the front stalls over the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1025 AM Friday...

Forecast remains on track this morning, necessitating no
updates ahead of the afternoon package.

A few showers have tracked through the area this morning, but
the better chance for activity will arrive for the afternoon and
evening.

As of 300 AM Friday...

Key Points:

* Marginal threat for severe hail and winds with thunderstorms this
  afternoon.

* Slow moving, efficient convection may yield high water issues,
  especially tonight into Saturday morning

Weak surface low pressure riding along a stalled frontal zone across
the Middle Ohio Valley coupled with weak H850 mass convergence at
this hour continues to support elevated showers and thunderstorms.
Expect these to continue to progress to the east following a more or
less west to east oriented ribbon of instability through this
morning, likely becoming surface based across northern WV early this
afternoon with additional diurnally forced convection blossoming as
surface parcels become uncapped. We do have quite a range of model
solutions regarding phasing of northern/southern stream jet energy
during the day today with WRF camp generally the aggressive and RAP
least aggressive in phasing early and spreading ascent across the
area in time to enhanced the aforementioned showers and
thunderstorms. The later solutions would yield higher instability co-
located with stronger deep layer shear and a higher potential for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail
(although wet bulb zero values near 12kft likely limit this) this
afternoon. The faster solutions would yield a period of subsidence
or at least the lack of broad ascent heading into peak heating,
especially across our west where we could remain storm free during
the late afternoon. The slower solutions would yield weaker flow
through the column resulting in slower storm motions and more narrow
CAPE profiles favorable for efficient rainfall production yielding a
bit better chances for some water issues, although heavier rainfall
footprints during the daylight hours are not expected to
significantly overlap the heavier rainfall footprints from last
night.

Otherwise, for areas that don`t see convection this morning, except
highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The potentially more significant water concerns look to arrive
overnight as slow moving frontal boundary lays out west to east
across area with at least some models putting it nearly directly
over a heavier rainfall footprint from last night across the
Mountain Lakes. Significant training appears possible along this
boundary during the late overnight into Saturday morning, but given
the model spread don`t have a ton of confidence in placement. Plan
to take a hard look at the 06Z suite as it comes in for a potential
flood watch before I leave this morning, but otherwise will defer to
the day shift for any highlights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1246 PM Friday...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday as a warm
front lifts north through the region and a 500-mb vort. max crosses
from the west. PWATs will be slightly lower Sunday, ranging from
1.25-1.50" across the region. However, slow-moving downpours are
still possible. In addition, saturated soils from recent heavy
rainfall can lead to quicker instances of localized flooding.
The areas at greatest risk of flash flooding would be urban
areas and in any training cells. 25-30 kts of 0-6km shear and
800-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE can lead to a few strong to severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon. The main threats appear to
be damaging winds and hail. A marginal risk of severe weather
and excessive rainfall are both outlooked for Sunday.

A cold front will still be west of the County Warning Area Monday,
so showers and thunderstorms will remain possible once again,
especially during the afternoon. Building afternoon instability and
modest shear will create additional chances for damaging wind gusts
and large hail.

Temperatures will reach the upper 70s Sunday with widespread clouds
and convection. Monday will be a bit warmer with our region located
in the warm sector and more breaks of sunshine expected. High
temperatures will be in the lower 80s Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1246 PM Friday...

A cold front will cross through the region midday Tuesday, leaving
dry and quiet weather in its wake. Temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday will rise to the middle and upper
80s by Thursday and Friday as a large upper-level ridge moves over
the eastern portion of the country.  The next chance of widespread
rain will be towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...

Bubbling afternoon cumulus field will impose brief restrictions
in the form of passing showers and storms. Tempo groups will be
present with this issuance alongside SHRA/VCTS through this
evening as a cold front drapes itself in close quarters to the
forecast area. Activity today will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy downpours.

As the front drapes itself over the Central Appalachians
overnight, additional bursts of rain and lowered
ceilings/visibilities settle into our airfield. By Saturday
morning, all stations are expected to fall under IFR thresholds
during the predawn hours, then gradually rising as daytime
mixing transpires. Shower and storm coverage will become more
isolated in nature as the front slips further to the south on
Saturday, but is anticipated to wobble near the area through the
weekend, maintaining an active weather pattern for the next
several days.

Winds will remain generally light below 10kts through the
period, but could locally grow stronger under showers and
storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convective coverage will vary, will need
to address with additional TEMPOs through the day.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms through
Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK