016
FXUS61 KRLX 271836
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Remaining brisk and cold through Friday. Mountain snow showers
are likely tonight into Friday. Dry for the start of the
weekend before becoming active again next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM Thursday...

This Turkey of a forecast is stuffed with helpings of winter
weather, although no major storms can be served up in the
forecast for now.

The near term begins with high clouds over stratocumulus like
gravy over mashed potatoes, notwithstanding the large height gap
between the two, exiting while the stratocu becomes more
widespread this afternoon.

A meaty mid/upper level trough crosses tonight. Snow showers
become likely in the northern and central mountains, with a dash
of flurries even out into the lowlands, as the trough erodes
the stout inversion, and cloud top temperatures drop into and
through the favored dendritic growth temperatures of -12 to
-18C.

Have increased the helping of snow in the mountains tonight
into Friday based on the better potential for snow and the high
snow ratios there given the low cloud top temperatures. Also
lingered the chance for snow showers along the northern and
central mountains Friday morning and flurries there Friday
afternoon, as the brisk low level flow continues.

The new forecast snow amounts are close to winter weather
advisory criteria for snowfall of 4 inches, and snowfall is
likely to locally exceed that in the most favored higher
windward terrain. Held off on the product for now after rigorous
collaboration, and will be sure to make the evening shift aware
of the possibility for the need for a short-fused one.

After slackening a bit today, winds may tick back up a bit
tonight as surface pressure and low level height gradients
tighten back up a bit, but should largely hold below wind
advisory criteria.

Temperatures dip well down into the 20s tonight, with teens in
the northern mountains, providing a free freezer for leftovers.
With the brisk winds, this takes apparent temperatures down into
the single digits either side of zero in the mountains. Even
daytime temperatures on Friday will maintain the freezer in the
northern and central mountains, while providing free
refrigeration elsewhere. Apparent temperatures remain in the
single digits over the higher terrain on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Thursday...

Any leftover mountain flurries will be whisked away Friday
evening, as approaching high pressure cuts off the upslope
westerly flow and dries out the gravy layer atop the mixing
layer. Come early Saturday morning, high pressure will be
parked over the area like a heap of cold, leftover mashed
potatoes. However, high clouds spreading across the area like
glaze on a ham may spoil what might otherwise be an ideal
radiative cooling night. Nonetheless, forecast lows in the teens
and lower 20s will keep leftovers frozen.

The leftovers thaw out Saturday afternoon in return south to
southeast flow behind exiting high pressure. Clouds continue to
increase while lowering, and thickening like gravy, ahead of the
next system that will stuff our meteorological plate. While the
surface low associated with this system will track well
northwest of the area Sunday, the column will still be cold
enough for snow when warm advection precipitation ahead of the
system arrives Saturday night. However, the surge of low/mid-
level warm advection Saturday night into Sunday will bring
temperatures high enough for a transition to rain for all but
the highest terrain, and perhaps interior southeast Ohio, on
Sunday, even by dawn in some locations.

While some model soundings show a strong enough warm nose aloft
to make freezing rain or sleet a possibility, others show the
h7-85 temperatures staying below freezing, making a rain/snow
scenario more likely. Given the forecast track of the low, this
would seem to favor a scenario where it would be more of a
rain-to-snow event as the low-level southerly winds carve out
the surface cold air, with little or no ice. Colder air
returning behind the cold front associated with the system could
change precipitation back to snow Sunday night, before post-
frontal subsidence and the drier air bring an end to it.

Temperatures bottom out in the 20s in the mountains and northern
lowlands, and lo 30s across the southern lowlands, ahead of the
system Saturday night, and then 20s area-wide behind the system
Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday peak in the 40s across and
lower elevations and 30s in the higher elevations, as the system
crosses.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Thursday...

A polar-arctic high pressure system provides a cold, dry start
to the new work week on Monday, but the cold air sets the table
for the next feast of mixed wintry precipitation on Tuesday.
Models are in better agreement on cyclogenesis over the southern
states in response to the approach of the next southern stream
short wave trough. The key here is southern stream, and with
little if any phasing with the northern stream, temperatures
will be marginally low enough for snow even with a synoptically
correct track for the crystalline hydrometeors. Further, models
also concur on a track, while southeast of, close enough to,
the central Appalachians, for lee cyclogenesis over the middle
Ohio Valley. This cooks up the classic warm wedge effect, with
snow and/or a wintry mix changing over to rain Tuesday, at least
across the southern half of the area, and farther up the
lowlands just west of the mountains.

High pressure mainly of pacific origin provides dry weather
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures do remain below normal
through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Thursday...

Brisk west winds persist this TAF period, gusting into the 20 to
25 kt range at times, along with a stratocumulus deck 3500-500
ft and light to moderate west to northwest flow aloft that
becomes moderate northwest tonight. HTS is likely to have a lull
in winds tonight. Snow showers will impact EKN tonight into
Friday morning with MVFR conditions likely, and may also impact
BKW tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Surface gust intensity may oscillate through
the period. Snow showers may lower visibility to IFR at EKN
tonight into Friday morning, and a PROB30 group was maintained
there for this 07-13Z. MVFR ceilings cannot be entirely ruled
out outside of snow showers tonight and Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in areas of rain and/or snow late Saturday
night into Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM