241
FXUS61 KRLX 011716
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
116 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather conditions prevail today. An approaching upper
level disturbance arrives tonight, bringing light rain into
Sunday, mainly south and west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...

Upper low over the midwest will sag south today and Sunday,
eventually moving into the southeastern U.S. by late Sunday.
Moisture, overall limited in nature, will stream northward into the
region later Saturday into Sunday, mainly confined to the
southern/western zones closer to the low. Temperatures during the
period will remain relatively mild, with highs generally in the 50s
to 60s, and overnight lows remaining relatively mild owing to
increased cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...

Aforementioned upper low will move across the southeast U.S. at the
start of the period, with a weak surface low that will form out
ahead low across southeast, and move north along the coast. Moisture
from these features will spread north towards the area, but overall,
it`s looking like much of this will stay to the south and east of
our area, with the main effect perhaps just being some cloud cover
across the east.  Otherwise, surface high pressure, and a mainly
zonal flow aloft will gradually start to take hold for the short
term period, with dry and mild conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...

Mainly dry conditions continue on Wednesday, with a slight uptick in
temperatures expected as the surface high shifts eastward. A low
will move across the Great Lakes region later in the day Wednesday,
with perhaps a slight chance for showers across the north, and an
increase in winds, along with a slight cool down for Thursday. High
pressure will then briefly build into the area, before warmer
temperatures take hold for Friday, as southerly flow increases out
ahead of an approaching front, which looks to affect the area later
in the day Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 112 PM Saturday...

Mainly VFR conditions over the TAF period, however, brief/local
MVFR conditions are possible, mainly across NE KY, SW VA and
southern WV in light rain showers generally 06-15Z.

Although guidance maintains VFR overnight and on Sunday, there
is the possibility for patchy fog to develop across the area in
spots tonight as wind goes light to calm. However, with increase
in cloud cover expected associated with disturbance to the west,
widespread fog/restrictions are not anticipated, and have
maintained VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: If thick enough cloud cover does not spread
over the area tonight, fog/restrictions may be possible in
spots.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR in morning valley fog is possible on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL