874
FXUS61 KRLX 201030
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
530 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure supports mostly dry into Friday morning. Better
chances of rain arrive late Friday night and continue into
Saturday. A more potent system arrives possibly Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

This period will be under zonal flow aloft with weak high
pressure at the surface. Cloudy conditons will prevail under low
stratus which could promote some areas of drizzle into the
afternoon. The clouds will be trapped under stout inversions
through the period so not expecting much of any sunshine today.

The moisture depth gets fairly shallow by the mid afternoon,
therefore thinking drizzle will drop out of the picture by then,
however a few isolated instances of light drizzle will not be
surprising from overcast skies.

Temperatures will rebound some during the daytime although with
all the cloud coverage expected they should not get above mid
to upper 50s with the mountains staying in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

Focus then turns to the next system forecast to arrive by Friday
which is a southern stream low pressure system originating over
Texas, thanks Texas. This feature will ride along anti-cyclonic
flow which will place the system just off to the west of our
area.

The national blended model guidance does give us chances as
early as Friday morning which seems reasonable as the
aforementioned systems warm frontal boundary slides into the
area. Thereafter, the high pressure system driving this feature
will retrograde south and allow the system to cross through the
area amid zonal steering flow as the low is forecast to track
directly overhead and eastward through Friday into Saturday
morning.

By Saturday afternoon, chances for rain will fall off and there
may be some lingering activity along the mountains, but that
will be short lived. This will be worst case scenario since
only slight chances will be left on the table through the
afternoon as an short wave upper level trough slides by in the
wake of the aforementioned system.

The area then should observe a quiet weather period from the
rest of Saturday and Sunday. This will be courtesy of upper
level ridging building in along with weak surface high pressure.

Guidance does have slight chances for Monday however, this is
largely due to models trying to bring in some activity ahead of
our next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

Models have a potent system developing over the Pacific and
traveling northeast across the CONUS past Texas, thank you
again Texas, and will track just to our northwest. The feature
is forecast to head towards the Great Lakes. Models have it
phasing with another low pressure system up that way which
is forecast to develop over the Midwest and traverse into
Canada.

This will aid in supporting stronger moisture flux from the
deep south which will stream into our area giving us an
abundance of moisture and anomalously high PWATs. This will also
slow down the exit of the cold frontal boundary that should
pass through on Wednesday morning, but models do diverge some
on timing which is understandable this far out.

Temperatures will take a slight warming trend and stay slightly
above seasonable for the entire forecast period from the short
term through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...

Stratus clouds will invade across the area today with IFR or
lower CIGs and IFR VIS at times. Light drizzle could be
observed at the sites temporarily through the morning, however
the moisture depth grows shallow by the afternoon so the area
should dry out.

Conditions will slowly improve to MVFR by the late afternoon
wan then break out into VFR by the evening.

Winds will stay light for the period and stay out of the west
through the day becoming calm at night.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving ceilings and
visibility restrictions could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    L    L

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
Areas of IFR in rain possible Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ