156
FXUS61 KRLX 081149
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
649 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure crosses today. A cold front crosses Sunday
with rain, then much colder Sunday night into the early portion
of the next work week, with the first snow of the season.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM Saturday...

A Dense Fog Advisory for the middle Ohio Valley remains in
effect until 10 AM this morning, with a special weather
statement farther east, except for the northeast mountains. With
light southwest surface flow, the fog does not necessarily
evince a particularly organized pattern.

As of 220 AM Saturday...

Events unfold in quick succession this weekend, even with a
tranquil Saturday afternoon and evening on tap.

Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a weak cold front were still
just moving into and through the mountains early this morning.
Clearing and diminishing flow in the wake of this activity was
already allowing dense fog to form over the middle Ohio Valley,
and have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the middle Ohio Valley
to match neighbors to the west and southwest until 10 AM this
morning. Otherwise areas of fog and low stratus and
stratocumulus are also likely farther east early this morning as
the mid and high cloud associated with the mid/upper-level
short wave trough tied to the cold front moves east. These area
will be watched for at least a special weather statement for
fog this morning.

With light low level flow today as weak high pressure crosses,
it may take all morning for the dense fog to lift into stratus
and then stratocumulus, and eventually into a fair weather
cumulus field at some point this afternoon.

Tonight will start mainly clear and calm, which may allow fog
to begin forming overnight tonight. But then, the next
mid/upper-level short wave trough and surface low pressure
center approaches. Increase in higher cloud and southerly flow
may preclude or reverse fog formation before dawn Sunday.

The cold front quickly whips across the area Sunday morning and
midday, as the surface low and mid/upper-level short wave trough
lift out to the northeast through the upper Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes. A relatively solid band of showers crosses
Sunday morning and midday, but quick movement and less
available moisture compared with the system just now exiting
will lead to more modest rainfall amounts. Also, the early
timing, and limited inflow and moisture ahead of the front,
preclude instability and thunder this go around.

Southerly flow will increase a bit ahead of the cold front
early Sunday morning, and then a bit further out of the west as
the front crosses on Sunday. Widespread showers develop Sunday
afternoon in the cold advection, with a mid-level short wave
trough approaching from the southwest, aided in and near the
mountains given the increasing upslope low level flow in the
wake of the surface/low-level low. Peak gusts Sunday afternoon
will likely be at least 25 to 30 mph, highest over the ridges,
making for a blustery and rudely chillier afternoon.

H85 temperatures drop below 0C from west to east in the wake of
the front crossing Sunday afternoon, getting to the mountains
late. This could allow precipitation to at least mix with snow
over the higher terrain late, and in interior southeast Ohio
just beyond.

After bottoming out front the lower 40s over the higher ridges
and northwest, interior southeast OH, near normal there, to
around 50 in the eastern lowlands and foothills, above normal,
this morning, temperatures also top near normal today and bottom
out near normal tonight northwest, and above normal today and
tonight elsewhere, with 60s corralling lowland highs today.
After lows in the 40s tonight, again near normal northeast to
above normal elsewhere, lowland temperatures will climb well
into the 50s ahead of the cold front Sunday morning across the
WV lowlands and foothills and southwest VA, and around 50
northwest, before falling back through the 50s, 40s northwest,
Sunday afternoon in the cold advection behind the front, as
sunshine to counteract the cold advection is stunted by the
cloud cover and showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1235 AM Saturday...

500MB upper-low as deep as around 525 dam drops out of the
northern plains and over the IN/MI/OH area of The Great Lakes
region, taking aim at our area. Subsequent trough will move over
the area Sunday night into Monday allowing for a change over
from rain to a rain/snow mix (all snow above 3,500 feet)Sunday
evening before midnight as much colder air races in to the
region. Eventually a change over to all snow will occur across
most of the area very early Monday morning, with intermittent
snow continuing most of the day Monday.

Amounts will be dependent on how quickly the colder temperatures
move in and usher the change over to all snow. More confident in
amounts between 1 and 3 inches across the mountains with some
locally higher amounts possible. Most of the lowlands however,
will remain below an inch with a few locations across the
northern lowlands and in the foothills achieving or just
breaking past an inch.

This will be the first taste of winter with temperatures falling
fast into the 20s Sunday night into Monday morning. A flash
freeze will likely occur making the morning commute slick on top
of any added snowfall. High temperatures on Monday will
generally only stay in 30s across lowlands. The mountains will
stay down in the 20s to the lower 30s. Gusty westerly winds with
this system will create very cold wind chills, particularly
across the higher elevations of the northeastern mountains where
wind chills will feel like the single digits.

West to east tapering off of snow will gradually occur Monday
night with additional light accumulations less than an inch
being picked up across the mountains and foothills. Low
temperatures will be very cold with the lowlands dropping into
the 20s and the mountains in the teens and lower 20s. Paired
with gusty winds, wind chills will be in the teens and single
digits across the area. Locations above 3,000 feet could see
wind chills in the negatives, but currently look to remain above
cold weather advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 AM Saturday...

Snow showers will be completing their exodus early Tuesday, but
gusty winds will continue with a southwesterly shift looking
probable. A brief wind advisory may be needed along the higher
elevation zones of Pocahontas and Randolph counties Tuesday as
wind gusts will be right around or just below 40 mph. This
southwesterly shift looks to moderate the temperatures some on
Tuesday with the lowlands sneaking back up into the low to mid
40s. The mountains however, will still remain in the 20s and
30s. Temperatures will continue to moderate gradually through
the end of the week into the weekend.

A series of disturbances will bring chances for showers
Wednesday and possibly later in the weekend, but a dry spells
looks to be in the works Thursday through Friday. As a result of
these disturbances, it is possible extra wind advisories may be
needed for the aforementioned locations Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Saturday...

A potpourri of fog and stratus exists across the area this
morning. IFR to VLIFR dense fog can persist to 14 or even 15Z
this morning before thinning and lifting into stratus and MVFR
stratocumulus. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the
middle Ohio Valley until 15Z, by which time all sites should be
MVFR stratocu and VFR visibility, the stratocu then lifting into
a VFR cumulus field early this afternoon.

VFR conditions are expected to persist tonight as high cloud and
southerly flow increase ahead of the next system. However, one
exception may be MVFR river valley fog overnight eastern sites
where increased cloud and flow arrive last, CKB, EKN and CRW.

Light southwest surface flow today will become calm tonight, and
then light south toward dawn Sunday. Light west flow aloft this
morning will become light southwest this afternoon and remain
so tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR to LIFR fog and ceilings may vary
this morning. Improvement of visibility to VFR late this morning
and ceilings to VFR early this afternoon may vary. Fog
development overnight tonight may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 11/08/25
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    L    M    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Sunday into Monday night in
occasional rain and then snow showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ005>010.
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM