676
FXUS61 KRLX 211927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
227 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Approaching system brings rain this afternoon through Saturday
morning. Dry and seasonable for the weekend. A potent system
mid-week brings much colder air on Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...

Low clouds and precipitation will continue to move in today with a
warm front slowly lifting up from the south. PoPs are in the likely
category widespread this afternoon and overnight. Rain will
overspread the area from southwest to northeast this morning and
will be light for the most part. Rain will gradually become more
moderate to heavy this afternoon and especially overnight as models
show a stripe of heavier precipitation that will set up along or
just south of the I-64 corridor with a low-level jet. WPC
probabilistic precipitation shows amounts generally between 0.25"
and 0.75" for the area, but a few locations may approach an inch on
the high end. This is especially possible in the heavier band and
along the mountains.

WPC has hoisted a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across a bulk
of the area, but FFG suggests that we should be able to handle most
of the QPF that falls today and tonight. A few thundershowers cannot
be ruled out across the southern coalfields and mountains of West
Virginia and southwest Virginia as the HRRR and NAM show some 0-3km
CAPE signals between 50 and 100 J/kg. Not overly confident though as
these values are not optimal for larger scale convection.

Temperatures will warm up a fair deal today with low to mid 60s
expected across the southern lowlands and mountains. 50s are
expected elsewhere. A cold front is still expected to cross
overnight, which will gradually shut off precipitation west to
east as we near Saturday morning. Lows will drop into the 40s
and lower 50s.

Rain showers and drizzle will persist into the morning hours
across the mountains, with patchy fog and mist possible
elsewhere too. Ultimately, precipitation will be exiting by the
afternoon. Low clouds will linger through the afternoon for
most, but an erosion of the low clouds from NW to SE will take
place. High temperatures will be in the 50s and lower 60s across
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Friday...

Drier weather will take hold Saturday night and last into
Monday as high pressure moves in. Temperatures will generally be
above normal both days with the lowlands reaching the upper 50s
on Sunday and the lower 60s on Monday. Westerly winds may be a
bit breezy across the mountains Sunday afternoon.

The next system approaches the area Monday night as a trough
moves in from the west. Rain chances will gradually increase
from west to east late Monday night into Tuesday as a result.of
a front setting up shop across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

A more active pattern kicks off the long term as a stationary
front will allow rain to continue across the area Tuesday.
Timing is still up in the air with the models, but it appears
that light rain will be probable during the day Tuesday ahead of
a heavier push Tuesday night into Wednesday with a strong cold
front ahead of a deepening low pressure center.

Rain chances remain across the area Wednesday, but a reinforcing
cold front is slated to move through late Wednesday. Models of
course do not have a solid handle on timing, especially where
the low pressure center will be, so things will likely change in
future model runs.

One thing that looks more certain is that much colder air will
arrive Thanksgiving Day and into the weekend. High temperatures
on Thanksgiving will remain in the 40s across the lowlands and
mostly 30s for the mountains. Northwesterly winds will be breezy
to gusty. There are chances for some rain and snow showers
Friday evening and Saturday with lake enhanced moisture
over the area. Guidance shows highs in the 20s and 30s Saturday
and Sunday as the arctic air mass settles into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

Conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout the afternoon
as rain and low ceilings settle in with a warm front. Ceilings
and visibility will bounce between MVFR and IFR through the day,
with IFR being reserved for moderate to heavy rain.

The worst conditions will be between ~23 and ~06z tonight when
widespread heavier rainfall sets up across the area. IFR/LIFR
conditions will be possible in the rain and fog between these
hours. Afterwards, conditions will remain IFR or worse at
multiple sites due to lingering drizzle and fog. VFR will not
arrive for most sites until after ~12z Saturday. MVFR/IFR
ceilings could remain at BKW and EKN until after ~18z.

Southeasterly winds will be light to calm today. A strengthening
low-level jet (35-45KTs at 2kft) will introduce LLWS at most
terminals around ~00Z tonight. Winds will shift to a more
northerly direction for Saturday, and will be light in speed.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of rain
and low ceilings today and tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR ceilings could persist across the mountains Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC