567
FXUS61 KRLX 191021
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
521 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure supports mostly dry into Friday morning. Better
chances of rain arrive late Friday night and continue into
Saturday. A more potent system arrives possibly Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

A dry and seasonable day on tap as a system that brought all
the rain here recently kicks out to the east and leaves behind
wrap around flow off the Great Lakes to create an abundant
moisture flux. This will aid in the development of low stratus
clouds area-wide spreading across our CWA this morning. Due to
the lack of surface flow and the abundant low level moisture
these clouds will take until the afternoon to lift, however
they will not scour out as cloudy conditons will persist through
the period.

Wouldn`t be surprised if some areas receive some drizzle on and
off through the period although the probability is too low to
place into the forecast solution for today. The blended model
guidance did not offer to comment on that possible solution,
therefore went with guidance as per directive orders since not
enough scientific evidence suggests widespread drizzle.

Tonight, we cannot rule out a rogue shower or two as cloud
coverage will be abundant along with northerly flow turning to
more southwesterly advecting in more moisture from the south
which place the probability of rain showers capped off at around
20% and chances should only last into Thursday morning.

Temperatures overnight will not change or drop much from the
daytime as cloud coverage will help in suppressing radiational
cooling even though surface flow will be calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

Thursday looks to be dry as weak upper level ridging builds in
although surface high pressure pulls back with lowering heights
in anticipation of a feature bringing plenty of moisture and
precipitation coming this way fromm the Texas area, thanks
Texas, following anti-cyclonic flow around the upper level
ridge. As zonal flow kicks in that precipitation will make it
into our area raising the probability of rain to 20-70% by
Friday morning.

Models have the systems warm frontal boundary draped across the
area for Friday raising the chances for thunderstorm activity
during the evening and nighttime with chances up to around 20%
therefore worst case we see af few rumbles since instability
will be low at that point. Chances will stay elevated for all
of Friday with probabilities upwards near 90% into Saturday
morning as that aforementioned system passes through.

The system cold be delayed somewhat, so worst cast scenario
would be probabilities for rain falling for the daytime on
Saturday to around 60%, and then slowly tapering off to around
30% for the evening which will continuing into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

By late morning Sunday, chances for rain drops off and will be
just confined to the mountains at around a 20% or less
probabilities for light shower activity. Rising surface heights
and weak upper level ridging will reinforce dry weather for the
rest of Sunday and into Monday. Chances then come back to
fruition Monday afternoon as another system is forcast to move
off from the West Coast past Texas, thank you again Texas, and
into our region by this time frame.

This system is forecast to evolve into a more potent system
then what we have been observing lately. Probabilities for
activity will be on the rise from Monday going forward as
models are in fairly good agreement on timing and track of this
system to affect the area possibly by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 530 AM Wednesday...

Low stratus will invade the area for this period. CIGs will
slowly deteriorate through the morning becoming IFR and even
LIFR at times. VIS should bounce around somewhat due to the
cloud coverage amid weak surface flow but not anticipating long
term IFR VIS.

Clouds will lift some by the afternoon but will stay MVFR for
the duration. Dry weather should persist, however there could
be instances of drizzle under overcast low clouds and plenty of
low level moisture.

By Thursday morning, clouds will still dominate the region and
VIS restrictions should be confined to the mountains although
some restrictions could spill over into the lowlands because of
recent rainfall and abundant low level moisture, however should
not be as bad if it were a clear and calm morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VIS will likely vary between MVFR/IFR this
morning under low stratus. Heights of low stratus may vary from
200 to 800ft through late morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 11/19/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    L    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    L    L    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ