146
FXUS61 KRLX 062342
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
642 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few rain or snow showers Sunday afternoon, with a more
widespread wintry mix changing to all snow Sunday night into
Monday. A warmer, breezier system impacts the region midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...

Mostly cloudy conditions are noted over the area, with a few
breaks in the various levels of cloud decks. After morning low
stratus cleared out, we maintained a broken altostratus deck,
and now lower clouds are starting to work back into the area
from the west. We should stay on the dry side through tonight,
but a weak shortwave crossing Ohio and PA late this afternoon or
this evening could bring some patchy drizzle or freezing
drizzle to northern WV, depending on temperature. Some light
snow is possible in a few spots if clouds can get over the -10C
level, but forecast soundings mainly had the saturated layer
staying below that.

The shallowest of shortwaves will slide across the eastern Great
Lakes and central Appalachians Sunday afternoon, which could
bring some isolated and temperature-dependent rain/snow showers
to the CWA. However, the better moisture availability and
forcing with this feature looks to stay north of our area, so
Sunday afternoon`s precip looks to be limited in scope. Forecast
highs in the low to mid-40s would indicate that any lower
elevation precip is likely to be rain, while a mix or all snow
is possible in higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

What the Sunday afternoon clipper disturbance lacks in moisture
across our area, it will partially make up for with a decent
shot of cold air surging into the CWA behind its cold front
Sunday night into Monday. Lows Monday morning will be mainly in
the 20s, with some teens in the mountains. Highs on Monday won`t
budge much as N`ly winds persist with the cold advection, only
rising to the low to mid-30s in lower elevations.

A second weak disturbance will follow the first one on a more
southerly track Sunday night into Monday, as a broad and weak
low develops along the Gulf Coast and then transits eastward and
off the Southeast Coast. As it does so, the upper- level trough
is forecast to draw some moisture north towards the central
Appalachians, bringing some rain and snow showers later Sunday
evening that transition to all snow overnight into Monday
morning. This second system will bring more widespread precip
than the Sunday afternoon disturbance, but likely mainly south
of the Ohio River. Lowlands of central and southern WV are
forecast to see mainly an inch, with up to around 2 inches
possible for the southern WV mountains down into our VA
counties.

As the base of the trough slides east of the CWA Monday night,
any lingering mountain snow showers Monday evening should
quickly end. High pressure sliding east of our area will combine
with disturbances pushing into the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes on Tuesday to bring increasing S-SW`ly breezes and highs
surging back into the 40s for most of the lowlands and 30s in
the mountains. Some patches of sunshine will also be possible on
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

A more potent clipper system is forecast to swing from the
northern Plains across the Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday
night, pushing a cold front across the CWA in the evening or
overnight hours. Ahead of the cold front, warm advection will
continue on gusty SW`ly winds, with highs ranging from the
mid-30s to lower 40s in the mountains to the mid-40s to near 50
degrees in lower elevations. As a result, when precip starts to
push into the area around midday or early afternoon on
Wednesday, it should start off as rain for everywhere except the
mountains.

A parade of disturbances may then impact the CWA through the
end of the week, but with significant model uncertainty on the
track and timing of the features, and as a result a wide spread
on potential temperature scenarios. While it seems likely that
there will be a significant cool-down between Thursday and
Saturday of next week, how fast and how cold remain unclear. For
example, for Charleston`s high on Friday, the NBM probabilistic
data has an 10-degree 25th/75th percentile spread, with a 20
degree 10th/90th spread. That is quite impressive and is a good
illustrator of the uncertainty. All of that is to say that the
precip type forecast for later next week will be highly
dependent on the speed and severity of any dropping
temperatures. So take the p-type forecast later next week with
at least a few grains of salt and expect potentially significant
changes as we get closer and the models hopefully come into
better agreement and lock onto a clear solution one way or the
other.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 PM Saturday...

Stratocumulus was lowering back down into MVFR this evening,
and this trend will continue tonight, before reversing overnight
into Monday, as ceilings rise back above MVFR from south to
north. This sets up a VFR Monday afternoon, except perhaps for
the afternoon return of MVFR stratocu at PKB and CKB, as a cold
front arrives. Visibility is not expected to be impactful
through Monday.

Light and variable to no surface flow tonight will become light
south to southwest again on Monday. The cold front may cross PKB
and CKB and switch the wind to light northwest there late
Monday afternoon. Light west to southwest flow aloft tonight
will become light to moderate west Sunday morning, and then
light northwest Sunday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of transition from VFR to MVFR
this evening, and then back to VFR overnight into Monday morning,
could vary by a couple of hours, even longer if morning MVFR
stratocu hangs on longer on Monday. Brief dip of visibility
into MVFR cannot be entirely ruled out tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in rain/snow Sunday night into Monday morning, and
then again Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...TRM