317
FXUS61 KRLX 210632
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
132 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Approaching system brings rain this afternoon through Saturday
morning. Dry and seasonable for the weekend. A potent system
mid-week brings much colder air on Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Friday...

Two primary forecast challenges exist in the immediate near
term: fog potential this morning and the evolution of widespread
rainfall arriving later today.

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery and surface
observations reveal a complex cloud pattern early this morning.
A hole in the deck of mid-level clouds is exiting northern West
Virginia yielding patchy fog, while another area of fog and stratus
over northern Ohio is drifting southeast. Think this will
largely be more very low stratus than fog for most, but could
eventually need an SPS for fog for the morning commute if
visibilities worsen.

Synoptically, a warm front will lift northward through the area
today. This will drive widespread precipitation into the region
from southwest to northeast. Heavier precipitation is expected
mainly this evening into the first half of the overnight as low
level mass convergence increases thanks to a low-level jet
strengthening to 30-40KTs. Rainfall totals through tonight are
forecast to generally range between 0.50 and 0.75 inches, with
locally higher amounts up to 1.00 inch possible along a stripe
along the Metro Valley into the mountains. Despite recent
rainfall, soils should be able to handle these amounts with much
of an issue.

While the dynamic forcing is robust, instability remains meager.
Model soundings show only a sliver of elevated instability
between H850 and H500 overnight. While a stray rumble of
thunder cannot be entirely ruled out embedded within the heavier
showers, the probability of thunderstorms remains low.

Temperatures today will benefit from warm advection despite
being mired in clouds, reaching the mid to upper 50s across the
lowlands, with some spots potentially touching 60F depending on
the precise timing of rain onset. A cold front will sweep
through the area overnight, shifting winds to the northwest and
tapering precipitation from west to east by Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 AM Friday...

Precipitation will be in the process of exiting the mountains
Saturday morning as the cold front pushes east. In its wake,
low-level flow turns northwesterly. While deep moisture departs
quickly, forecast soundings suggest low-level moisture may
remain trapped beneath a subsidence inversion for the first half
of the day, keeping stratocumulus clouds entrenched,
particularly across the northern lowlands and mountains. High
pressure building in from the west will eventually scour out
this moisture, leading to clearing skies by late afternoon or
evening. High temperatures Saturday will be cooler behind the
front, generally in the low 50s for the lowlands and 40s for the
higher terrain.

Sunday features quiet weather as the surface high centers over
the region with highs recovering slightly into the mid-50s
across the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 AM Friday...

The extended period begins dry on Monday as the region remains
under the influence of retreating high pressure. The pattern
becomes active again by Tuesday as a longwave trough ejects
energy from the Central Plains toward the Ohio Valley. While
there is some variance in the timing, the consensus of guidance
points to a two-stage system. The initial wave may bring light
precipitation chances mainly to the south on Tuesday, but the
more significant impact arrives Tuesday night into Thursday
associated with a deepening surface low and potent cold front.

Central guidance probabilities for measurable precipitation
ramp up significantly Tuesday night into Wednesday. Following
the passage of the cold front Wednesday night, a strong push of
cold air advection will overspread the area for Thanksgiving
Day. High temperatures on Thanksgiving will struggle to exit the
40s across the lowlands, with the mountains remaining in the
30s, accompanied by blustery northwest winds.

Parcel trajectories would support some continuing risk of lake
enhanced snow showers in the wake of the synoptic precipitation,
but too far out for any more significant details.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 M Friday...

A challenging aviation forecast is on tap for the 06Z TAF
period, starting with fog potential and transitioning to
widespread rain and low ceilings.

Satellite imagery shows breaks in the cloud cover over northern
WV and SE Ohio. Combined with calm winds and moist ground, this
is patchy promoting fog development. KCKB and KPKB are the
primary concern sites, with LAMP guidance aggressively
forecasting LIFR/VLIFR visibilities and ceilings developing by
09Z and persisting through 13Z. Elsewhere, a VFR mid-level deck
should mitigate dense fog formation, though MVFR mist is
possible at KCRW and KHTS.

Any morning fog will lift into a stratus deck by mid-morning.
However, flight conditions will deteriorate areawide from south
to north after 15Z as a warm front lifts north. Rain will
overspread the terminals, bringing ceilings down to MVFR by 18Z
and likely IFR by 21Z-00Z. Visibilities will generally range
from 3-5SM in rain, but pockets of 1-2SM are possible in heavier
rates.

Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to become entrenched
at all terminals tonight as the boundary layer saturates ahead
of the approaching cold front. Rain will continue, with LLWS
becoming a potential factor as a 35-45KT low-level jet
traverses the region, though surface gusts may largely remain
dampened by the inversion

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium PKB/CKB for patchy fog. High
remaining terminals.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog dissipation at KCKB/KPKB may
vary. Onset of IFR ceilings this afternoon could be faster than
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 11/21/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are likely to persist into Saturday morning with
low stratus and rain showers. Improvement to VFR is expected
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP