113
FXUS61 KRLX 030841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
341 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides for a drier weekend, except for a few
showers down south today. Turning warmer next week amid multiple
systems with the potential for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Saturday...

Low level moisture continues to manifest as low clouds and
patchy fog in and just west of the mountains early this morning.
High clouds associated with a wave of low pressure passing
south of the area may lower and thicken enough to eradicate the
lower clouds and fog before dawn.

The system itself could produce enough mid-level moisture and
lift for light precipitation across southeast portions of the
area today. While the elevated moist layer is cold enough to
support snow, the low level warm nose, albeit dry, may be warm
enough to melt the crystalline hydrometeors, which could in
turn freeze with surface temperatures below freezing early this
morning.

Model QPF is minimal to non-existant early this morning, and
temperatures gradually rise above freezing late this morning
into this afternoon while the warm nose aloft collapses. While
confidence in measurable precipitation and even precipitation
type is too low to issue any Winter Weather Advisories, special
weather statements will be issued if a minimal threat is able
to materialize.

Any precipitation will thus trend more toward either rain or
snow by this afternoon, when some model output does show a few
hundredths of an inch of precipitation, mainly in and near the
mountains.

It is not out of the question spotty light precipitation
persists into tonight into in and near the the mountains, as a
negatively tilted shortwave trough crosses amid northwest
mid/upper-level flow, but for now, central guidance depicts a
dry forecast after this evening.

Otherwise, high pressure building in from the northwest tonight
will bring clearing and nearly calm conditions, which will
favor radiational cooling. As a result, lows will be below
normal, with teens north and most any sheltered valley, and
otherwise low 20s south. There is some model suggestion of
stratus and fog forming over the upper Ohio Valley overnight
tonight sneaking down into the middle Ohio Valley early Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Saturday...

High pressure provides a short, dry, quiet interlude to start
the first full week of 2026. One high crosses Sunday and Sunday
night. A warm front then scoots north of the area Monday
morning. With no real discernible cold front associated with
the system, just a weak bubble high builds into the middle and
upper Ohio Valley in its wake Monday afternoon into Monday
night, and then flattens overnight as low level south to
southwest flow takes hold beneath mid/upper-level zonal flow.

The high will provide sunshine Sunday once any middle Ohio
Valley lows clouds and fog are gone. High and mid cloud spilling
southeast from the warm front will overspread the area Sunday
night, these clouds giving way to some sunshine on Monday. High
clouds increase again Monday night, with low clouds following
close behind in the low level south to southwest flow toward
dawn Tuesday.

Below normal temperatures Sunday and Sunday night give way to
above normal temperatures Monday and Monday night, as high
pressure gives way to south to southwest flow, interrupted only
for a time Monday afternoon and night over portions of the
middle Ohio Valley by the weak bubble high.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM Saturday...

Increasingly moist and mild south to southwest low level flow
dominates through the balance of th first full work week of
2026, as mid/upper-level zonal flow gives way to ridging that
builds ands then scoots east across the area.

One system makes inroads into the forecast area with some light
rain showers from some point Tuesday through Tuesday night. Not
much stronger than its Monday morning predecessor, it has a weak
if not barely discernible cold front associated with it, and
another weak bubble high crosses the area in its wake on
Wednesday. This provides another brief dry interlude much of
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Additional short wave troughs rotating about the base of a long
wave trough out west and then ejecting out of it make
increasing inroads into the area Wednesday night through Friday.
With the persistent, increasingly moist south to southwest flow
across the area, this results in rounds of rain or rain showers
with increasing coverage and intensity, becoming moderate to
perhaps heavy. This period will need to be monitored for the
potential of developing hydro issues.

The long wave gets close enough to drive a cold front through
the area late Friday or Friday night into Saturday, with its own
round of showers.

The bubble highs provide some radiational cooling Monday and
Wednesday nights. Otherwise, central guidance evinces well-above
normal temperatures through the latter portion of the next work
week, especially on Thursday and Friday. A distant early first
glance suggests only modest cooling, at least initially, behind
the Pacific cold front heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 AM Saturday...

A high thin overcast and light low-level flow has allowed
valley fog to form north, while low level moisture and a light
north flow has resulted in LIFR stratus and fog at BKW. IFR to
MVFR stratus/stratocumulus was also present elsewhere along and
just west of the mountains. These conditions may persist for
several predawn hours, before high clouds lower and thicken
enough for the fog to thin out and the stratus/stratocu to break
up.

A wave of low pressure passing south of the area today will have
little effect other than to provide enough lowering and
thickening clouds to eradicate the stratus and fog early this
morning. The system will provide a cloud deck as low as 6 kft
today, which may then lower to MVFR in and just west of the
mountains late today, before scattering out late tonight.

Light north to northeast to variable surface flow today will
become Light north to northwest to variable tonight. Light to
moderate northwest flow aloft today will become light northwest
this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of return to VFR early this morning,
and of a period of MVFR stratocu late today into tonight, may
vary from the forecast,.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 01/03/26
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
There is some model suggestion of stratus and fog forming over the
upper Ohio Valley overnight tonight sneaking down into the
middle Ohio Valley early Sunday morning. Otherwise, no
widespread IFR conditions are anticipated at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM