357
FXUS61 KRLX 241746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
146 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather and cooler than normal
temperatures through next week. Rain chances return late
Sunday. Active and wet pattern sets up for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

Key Point:

 * Frost Advisory in effect for higher elevations of Pocahontas
   and Randolph counties from 1 AM through 9 AM Sunday morning.

Surface high pressure, extending southeast from the Great Lakes into
the OH Valley and WV, provides dry weather and a loose pressure
gradient over the local area through tonight. With a cool airmass in
place, clearing skies and light to near calm flow tonight, expect
radiational cooling to take temperatures down into the mid to lower
30s across the higher elevations of our northeast mountains. These
conditions warrant a Frost Advisory for elevations at and higher
than 3000 feet in Pocahontas and Randolph counties into early
Sunday morning.

Otherwise, consensus among guidance suggest dense fog developing
mainly across the northern third of our CWA overnight tonight.
Therefore, coded dense fog along all river valleys, with higher
probabilities from PKB east to EKN through 8 AM Sunday morning.
Dense fog should stay in the vicinity of CRW, HTS and BKW
airports.

An H500 shortwave moves from the KY/TN valley, east into our area on
Sunday, bringing clouds and few showers or thunderstorms across
portions of SE Ohio, NE KY and WV mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours.

Temperatures will remain below normal for this time of the year.
Lows will generally be in the mid to lower 40s , except over
the northeast mountains where mid 30s are expected. Highs will
range from the mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, and between
the mid 50s and mid 60s higher elevations.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1206 PM Saturday...

A frontal boundary will be stalled just south of the Tennessee
Valley Monday morning, and will slowly move northward as a warm
fA frontal boundary will be stalled just south of the Tennessee
Valley Monday morning, and will slowly move northward as a warm
front late Monday and early Tuesday. A few waves of weak 500-mb
vorticity will approach the middle Ohio Valley from the west Monday,
which may bring a slight chance of precipitation across southern
West Virginia and southwest Virginia. However, much of Monday,
Memorial Day, will remain dry. The best chance of rain will be well
south of our area, near the frontal boundary. Temperatures will
remain on the cooler side for late May with highs only in the lower
70s Monday afternoon.

Rain chances will increase dramatically Tuesday as low pressure
tracks north through the Mississippi Valley and a frontal boundary
lifts through the Ohio Valley. In addition, a more potent 500-mb
vort. max will provide more support for shower activity. We are
currently estimating 0.75-1.25" of rainfall will be possible
Tuesday, with higher amounts across northeast Kentucky, southwest
West Virginia and southwest Virginia. Models suggest PWATs will be
highest across this region at 1.75" Tuesday, which means flooding
downpours will be possible. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall is
currently being outlooked by WPC for Tuesday. Thunderstorms are not
expected Tuesday with models depicting little to no instability
across our area. High temperatures Tuesday will only reach the lower
to middle 60s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1206 PM Saturday...

The remainder of the week still looks active as a broad upper-level
low provides rain chances just about each day. However, models are
still somewhat inconsistent beyond Wednesday, so forecast confidence
remains lower for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

Wednesday still looks quite wet as a surface low tracks through the
middle Ohio Valley. Our region should be positioned in the warm
sector Wednesday, so it will end up being a milder day with
afternoon temperatures reaching the middle to upper 70s. A few
models show some modest instability building Wednesday afternoon
with weak to modest 0-6km shear. Therefore, some thunderstorm
activity will be possible Wednesday afternoon, but the severe threat
is questionable this far out.

Forecast uncertainty increases by Thursday. It looks like the
surface low should be northeast of the middle Ohio Valley by
Thursday, and a few model solutions show some drying across our area
for much of the day. However, we still remain under a broad upper-
level low, so rain cannot be completely excluded. Rain chances will
increase again Friday and Saturday as a more potent vort. max drops
into the area from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

Surface high pressure will provide mostly clear skies and near calm
flow tonight. This will promote areas of dense fog mainly along the
river valleys overnight through at least 12Z. Terminals most likely
to be affected by IFR/LIFR conditions will be PKB, CKB and EKN per
model consensus. Suspect that river valley fog will stay in the
vicinity of CRW, HTS and BKW not affecting terminals directly.
Otherwise, conditions will stay VFR outside areas of fog.

VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the period on Sunday.
Winds will become light from the northwest across northern
terminals, and light and variable across BKW and HTS on Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset of dense river valley fog at EKN, PKB and
CKB may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday, mainly across
the south.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ