545
FXUS61 KRLX 071823
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
223 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front tonight brings light rain and snow showers, and a
reinforcing shot of colder air. Next system arrives Wednesday
night into Thursday. Unsettled into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

Lingering showers are slowly continuing to exit the area, along
with some clearing of cloud cover across SE Ohio zones. Any
clearing will probably be somewhat short lived, as an upper
trough and surface cold front, currently to our west across NW
Ohio/central IN, start to sag south into the area. This will
bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the area, and some light
precipitation, with some spots, particularly in the mountains,
having the potential for some light snow. Any precipitation will
quickly taper off Tuesday morning with drier air taking hold as
high pressure nudges into the area. Gusty winds can be expected
at times overnight owing to the tightening pressure gradient
and strong CAA.

Growing season counties were expanded this morning in
coordination with local agricultural interests, and added
additional counties to the freeze warning for tonight, plus
hoisted a freeze watch for Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Freeze Watch in effect for Tuesday night.
* Quiet through Wednesday.
* Warm front crosses Wednesday night.

Dry and rather cold conditions are anticipated as high pressure
moves over the area Tuesday night. With low temperatures likely to
fall below freezing areawide, a Freeze Watch has been issued for all
counties in which the growing season has been initiated.

Quiet weather continues through Wednesday, though high pressure
begins to shift east in advance of the next system. Scattered
showers may then begin to blossom overnight as a warm front is
lifted through the area by this approaching low pressure system.

After the brisk start to the day, Wednesday`s high temperatures
should remain around five to ten degrees cooler than normal, with
50s to low 60s expected in the lowlands and mid 40s to 50s in the
mountains. Wednesday night will be more seasonable than the previous
night, with lows ranging from 30s to 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Late week system brings rain and storms.
* Drier again on Sunday.

Rain showers and thunderstorms are projected to spread into the area
as a low pressure system steers a cold front into, and then across,
the area Thursday and Thursday night. After the front departs to the
east, unsettled weather persists through the end of the week as the
low and an upper level trough continue to pivot overhead. High
pressure regains control by Sunday, resulting in a brief period
of quiet weather before another disturbance arrives for the
beginning of the new work week.

Temperatures turn cooler behind the front and remain below normal
through the end of the week, with some early morning frost once
again possible this weekend. Temperatures then moderate back to
normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

Widespread IFR conditions continue to linger, mainly south/east
of the Ohio River. Sill expecting some brief improvement in
conditions to low VFR/MVFR at many locations outside of the
mountains, generally after 22Z, but conditions will quickly
deteriorate again overnight as a cold front moves into the
area, with light precipitation spreading back into the area,
along with widespread MVFR and areas of IFR conditions
developing once again. Mountainous counties, generally
IFR/LIFR/VLIFR this afternoon may briefly improve to MVFR this
evening, but will quickly become IFR/LIFR/VLIFR again overnight,
including at sites KBKW and KEKN.

In addition, gusty northwesterly winds will develop overnight
with passage of the front, with occasional gusts in the teens to
lower 20s across the lowlands, and in the 20s to 30s across the
mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving/deteriorating
conditions may vary from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms Thursday and Thursday
evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>027-029.
     Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>027-029.
OH...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
     Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ101>103-
     105.
     Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JLB
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SL