Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
125 FXUS61 KRLX 222344 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 644 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Wintry precipitation continues with an upper-level low to our northeast, bringing accumulating snow in the mountains, through Saturday. Dry Sunday into early Monday. Rain returns Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 435 PM Friday... Extended the Winter Weather Advisory in Taylor County until 6 PM this evening. Still seeing some hefty bands of precipitation moving over this area and temperatures have been reluctant to reach forecasted highs today due to cloud cover and moisture. Warm air intrusion will gradually take over this evening into the night allowing for snow to change over to rain. Expecting additional light accumulations of about 1 to 3 inches across the area, with locally higher amounts across the higher elevations. As of 145 PM Friday... A Blizzard Warning is in effect for Northwest Pocahontas and Southeastern Randolph counties until 15Z Saturday where significant snowfall and blowing snow, as a result of strong winds will reduce visibility to below a quarter of a mile for a prolonged period of time today into early Saturday and snowfall totals of 1 to 2 feet with locally higher amounts possible. A Winter Storm Warning will follow the Blizzard Warning from 15Z Saturday until 00Z for additional snow accumulations and blowing snow. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the surrounding mountain counties in northeast and eastern WV until 00Z Sunday where, area dependent, anywhere from 6 to 14 inches are expected with higher totals in Southeastern Webster up to 2 feet. Blowing snow can also be expected in these areas as well which could greatly reduce visibility at times. Lastly, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for areas surrounding the warnings where snowfall totals of up to 5 inches are expected in Taylor, Wyoming, Raleigh, Fayette, Nicholas and the lower elevations of Pocahontas county. The advisory for Taylor county expires at 21Z this afternoon and remaining areas will expire at 00Z Saturday. Elongated vertically stacked low centered over SE New York will continue to push a trough over our area this afternoon and evening as the surface low rotates about the upper level low with these features allowing precipitation to begin to overspread our area this afternoon as a result. Moisture should also increase over the area as the shortwave pushes south bringing moisture from the Great Lakes, allowing for ample QPF along the windward slopes under strong northwest flow leading to potentially significant snow totals. Temperatures today should increase steadily under warm air advection through the evening hours keeping us warmer than the previous night for most of the area. Precipitation could start out as wet snow in some areas across WV but should quickly transition to all rain by late this afternoon for the lower elevations. Gusty winds are likely to persist overnight for much of the area with gusts of up to 25 mph possible across the entire territory with higher gusts of up to 50 mph possible across the higher elevations in the mountains. Any lingering heavy snow or rain should quickly become lighter by Saturday afternoon in the mountains. Elsewhere precipitation should quickly diminish from west to east by around 12Z. Temperatures for Saturday will be a lot milder with high temperatures in the upper 40`s to near 50 for the lowlands and low 30`s to low 40`s across the higher mountain terrain. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1209 PM Friday... 500-mb heights will begin to rise Sunday as high pressure settles into the area, signaling the return of more seasonable and drier weather across the region. Highs will rebound into the middle and upper 50s across the lowlands and the upper 40s to lower 50s in the mountains for Sunday afternoon. Some filtered sunshine should also return. High pressure and dry weather should continue into early Monday before the next system brings another round of rain late Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1209 PM Friday... The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to bring rain into early Tuesday morning. Rain chances with this system should continue into the early afternoon. The passage of a cold front will then bring another return of chillier weather, with afternoon temperatures only reaching the 40s, and even the 30s in the higher elevations. A southern stream system is expected to approach by Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, bringing another round of rain to the region areawide. Behind the system would be the return of northwest flow and winterlike air for post-thanksgiving activities. Of course, plenty of uncertainty remains, but we will have to watch this potential as it unfolds. Confidence is low regarding timing and impacts of this system at this time. Some models show rain potentially transitioning into upslope snow showers Thursday night or early Friday morning on the backside of this system in the northern WV mountains. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 640 PM Friday... Waves of precipitation will move across the area tonight, but becoming more confined to the higher elevations of the northeastern WV mountains after ~06z. Snow will be the most likely P-type early, especially across the mountains and foothills. Steadily warming temperatures will lead to a change over to rain for elevations below 3,000 feet as the evening progresses. The highest elevations of the northeastern mountains could expect whiteout conditions due to strong wind gusts and blowing snow. That said, flight categories will be less than ideal with MVFR and IFR being common across the area tonight; even LIFR is likely across the highest ridges of the mountains due to the aforementioned VIS restrictions, Wx and low ceilings. CIGs will gradually lift from west to east tomorrow, but MVFR will be prominent most of the day, with IFR/LIFR remaining in the mountains. WNW winds will be gusty overnight, especially in the mountains where gusts between 30 kts and 45 kts will be common; the higher end of the range most likely being observed above 3,500 feet. Elsewhere, gusts between 10 and 25 kts will be common. Winds will gradually start slacking off tomorrow as a disturbance to our northeast pulls away and winds shift more WSW. Winds may still be gusty at times in the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions in precipitation will vary. Gusty winds will fluctuate. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M L H L L L L M EKN CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR ceilings at least in and near the mountains Saturday into Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ034- 515>517-519-524. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ518-520- 522-525. Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for WVZ523-526. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMC NEAR TERM...28/LTC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...LTC