088
FXUS61 KRLX 041758
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1258 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues through Wednesday. Gusty winds are
expected Wednesday afternoon and overnight ahead of a cold
front. A couple of systems arrive late this week into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM Tuesday...

High pressure and quasi-zonal flow aloft will support dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures through tonight, with
afternoon highs ranging mid 40s to upper 50s in the mountains
and upper 50s to mid 60s in the lowlands. Low dewpoints should
result in relative humidity values in the 30s across much of
the area this afternoon, though a few locations could reach mid
20s. An absence of strong winds will, however, help to limit
fire weather concerns for today.

Tonight, surface high pressure will slide east as low pressure
crosses the Great Lakes. This will lift a warm front across the
region overnight, increasing cloud cover and boosting overnight
temperatures into the 40s for lowland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM Tuesday...

Warm advection will continue into Wednesday ahead of a cold
front, increasing high temperatures by around 10 degrees. This
should result in mid 50s to upper 60s in the mountains and mid
60s to low 70s in the lowlands. The crossing low to the north
will also tighten the pressure gradient, strengthening winds
across the area and particularly in the ridges. Gusts of 25 to
35 mph are expected in the lowlands and periods of 35 to 50
possible in the ridges. Given this, a Wind Advisory was issued
for Southeast Randolph and Pocahontas counties Wednesday
afternoon and overnight.

The cold front will cross the region Wednesday night, but will
be fairly moisture starved. Most of the area will remain dry,
but a few showers are possible in and around the mountains. Wind
will diminish from west to east in the wake of the front.

Transient high pressure then facilitates dry weather and a
return to more seasonable temperatures on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Tuesday...

Another cold front is expected to cross the region on Friday,
with widespread rain chances overspreading the area from the
west late Friday afternoon and overnight. Rain should taper off
behind the front early Saturday, leaving mostly dry weather
before another system crosses on Sunday. That system will depart
Sunday night, though an upper trough and northwesterly flow
should sustain precipitation chances into Monday.

Rain will be the dominant precipitation type through Sunday, then
snow should start to mix in with rain as temperatures turn colder
Sunday night. A transition to all snow is most likely to occur over
the higher elevations, though portions of the lowlands could also
receive snow or a rain/snow mix before precipitation ends.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies, marred only by high cirrus. Wind remains generally
light, becoming southerly this evening. Gusts will quickly
increase with tightening pressure gradient Wednesday morning.
Lowland gusts of 25 to 30kts are expected, with gusts up to 40
kts possible at time in the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS could be possible in a few locations
tonight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Periods of MVFR or IFR are possible in rain Friday evening into
Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for
     WVZ523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PBZ
NEAR TERM...PBZ
SHORT TERM...PBZ
LONG TERM...PBZ
AVIATION...PBZ