043
FXUS61 KRLX 221027
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
627 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild today with an isolated shower possible. Strong cold
front approaches this weekend, bringing a better chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Much cooler and mainly dry next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM Friday...

Satellite imagery shows widespread low stratus covering most
parts of SE OH, NE KY, SW VA and most of WV early this morning.
Expect these clouds to gradually lift before dissipating by late
morning. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 130 AM Friday...

Satellite imagery and surface observations show widespread low
stratus and dense fog developing along the eastern mountains
and portions of central and southern WV during the overnight
hours. Expect these clouds to gradually lift and erode by mid
morning.

High pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft will keep
very dry conditions through tonight. In fact, PWATs about 1.0
inch represent just the 50th percentile from climatology. Local
soundings show strong subsidence. These factors will suppress
any convection across the area today. The exception could be an
afternoon light shower over the higher terrain.

The NBM indicates once again a good signal for widespread dense fog
or/and low stratus late tonight into Saturday morning.

Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80s across the lowlands,
ranging into the upper 60s northeast mountains. Lows tonight will
generally be in th mid 60s across the lowlands, ranging mid 60s to
upper 50s across the northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

By Saturday, the winds turn southwest in response of an
approaching cold front from the northwest. Low level moisture
increases with PWATs reaching 1.8 inches under a modest unstable
atmosphere with SBCAPE reaching 2200 J/Kg. An environment with
negligent deep layered shear, low SRH and limited moisture
suggests slow-moving diurnal-driven weak convection possible
Saturday afternoon, mostly likely along the eastern mountains.
Accepted general guidance bringing 20-30 percent PoPs for
Saturday, an up to 60 percent across extreme southwest VA.

NBM keeps same PoPs Saturday night as the cold front slowly pushes
southeast keeping showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Drier airmass filters in behind the front providing drier weather
conditions Sunday night. High temperatures on Saturday will be in
the mid 80s to 90 across the lowlands, with Sunday being a few
degrees cooler. Lows Sunday night will be in the 50s area-wide
following the passage of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

Another dry spell in weather conditions is expected Monday through
Thursday as a broad/strong surface high pressure settles over the OH
Valley and West Virginia. High temperatures will generally be in the
70s across the lowlands, with upper 50s and 60s across the
mountains. Lows will range from the upper 40s and 50s in the
lowlands, with upper 30s and 40s in the mountains. River valley fog
is expected each night.

The next chance for precipitation arrives at the end of the week as
a cold front crosses the area probably early Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 626 AM Friday...

METARs and satellite imagery shows widespread MVFR/IFR low
stratus and fog affecting CRW, HTS, CKB, EKN and BKW early this
morning. Expect a gradual improvement in ceilings and visibility
by 14-15Z.

Strong surface high pressure will keep conditions dry today and
tonight under light north to northwest flow.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving conditions due to low
stratus may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/22/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in river valley fog Saturday morning and again
Monday morning onward. IFR possible in showers/thunderstorms
with a cold front Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ