215
FXUS61 KRLX 150634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
134 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm today before rain returns along a cold front
overnight. Turning much colder and windier Sunday through
Monday. Additional chances for precipitation return on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Saturday...

Early morning frontal analysis depicts a warm front remains
draped through the northern extent of the forecast area. This
aligns well with radar trends as light rain showers ahead of
the front continue to stream in from the northwest into our
mountain zones. POPs are anticipated to diminish and lift
northward later on this morning as the warm front continues a
trajectory into New England. On the southern side of the front
this morning, warm temperatures mixing down from aloft have
resulted in a non-diurnal warming trend to ensue. A few spots
have even risen to the 60 degree mark early this morning, while
sheltered valleys have sunk down into the 40s.

After daybreak, mostly cloudy skies will rule the roost amid
increasing moisture ushered in from the south. Temperatures will
cruise up to above normal readings for this time of year,
ranging in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees by this afternoon
within the Kanawha Valley. Elsewhere, afternoon temps are
progged to reach the mid 50s in the mountains and low 60s for
the foothills and north-central lowlands.

A cold front encroaches from the northwest later on this evening
into the overnight hours tonight. Chances for rain increase with
the arrival of the front, with a few rumbles of thunder not out
of the question overnight as the boundary passes through the
area. The SWODY1 for today does retain mention of a Marginal
Risk for strong thunderstorms across portions of southeast Ohio
and central West Virginia, where activity could produce strong
winds.

Otherwise, brisk non-thunderstorm winds will begin to present
themselves along the spine of the Appalachians late tonight as a
tightened pressure gradient takes shape. Strong gradient winds
aloft will become present shortly after dark tonight and will
remain firmly in place for the remainder of the weekend. With
the potential of some of these winds reaching advisory criteria
at times, opted to hoist a Wind Advisory for southeast Randolph
and northwest Pocahontas Counties beginning at 7 PM this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Saturday...

Key Point:

 * A Wind Advisory will be in effect for Sunday through late
   Monday morning along the higher ridges of the WV mountains.

Precipitation chances come to an end on Sunday in the wake of
the cold frontal passage. On the backside of the front, colder
temperatures will be ushered into the region, resulting in
daytime highs to only reach the 40s and 50s for Sunday
afternoon. Even colder temperatures are anticipated on Monday as
Canadian high pressure settles into the Ohio Valley, with some
mountain locations remaining below freezing throughout the day.

A prominent upper level jet accompanying a departing trough and
a tightening pressure gradient aligning along the higher
terrain will encourage strong surface gusts for our mountain
zones at the end of the weekend into Monday. The Wind Advisory
first introduced in the near term period will remain in place
through the bulk of the short term as gusts as strong as 50 mph
remain feasible across southeast Randolph and northwest
Pocahontas Counties. Forecast soundings depict mixing heights
extending as far up as 4,000ft AGL, capable of sending down
strong northwest winds to the surface throughout the day Sunday
into late Monday morning. Gradient winds will gradually ease on
Monday, but will remain breezy through the afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 AM Saturday...

Active weather stretches through the bulk of the work week with
the encouragement of moisture lofting up from the southwest
under broad ridging. Despite variability amongst global models,
the overall trend advertises daily opportunities for showers as
waves of energy cruise overhead. At the onset of precipitation
Tuesday morning, forecast soundings remain indicative of a
wintry mix in locations where warmer air aloft interacts with
sub-freezing temperatures at the surface. This will be mainly
short-lived in the lower elevations Tuesday morning before
switching over to all rain, while mountain zones hold on to a
rain/snow regime, and moments of potential freezing rain,
further into the afternoon and evening hours.

Strong H85 warm air advection takes center stage for Tuesday
night and onward, which will result in precipitation to fall as
rain for the rest of the work week. Additionally, daytime
temperatures will gradually rise each day this upcoming week,
returning to above normal readings for Thursday and Friday. A
strengthening low pressure system evolving over the Four Corners
region around midweek will dash across the country and will
serve up the best opportunity for rain late in the forecast
period. This system will continue to progress through the region
heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 AM Saturday...

A few showers passing through the northeastern portions of the
area this morning will continue to filter in from the northwest
as we await a warm front lifting to the north. Ceilings around
the region remain within VFR early this morning and don`t see
that changing much over the next few hours. Main impacts to
overnight flight conditions will come in the form of surface
winds gusts and LLWS aloft through the nighttime hours as a low
level jet noses through the area. KRLX VAD Wind Profile at the
time of writing shows 30-35kts sitting near 2,000ft AGL this
morning, with forecast soundings along the mountains suggesting
a slightly stronger influence from the jet. LLWS was included at
all sites with the exception of BKW.

Winds are anticipated to mix down to the surface after daybreak
this morning and will remain breezy through the course of the
day. Outside of winds, most of the day will stay relatively
quiet before a cold front is slated to encroach by this evening.
Ceilings will drift into sub-VFR thresholds with the frontal
passage tonight and through the end of the valid TAF period in
addition to a mention -RA. While a strong jet continues aloft,
winds at the surface will be less likely to decouple, so
withheld any mention of LLWS with this issuance.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of reduced ceilings
with the cold front tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        SAT 11/15/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EST 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in heavier showers late Saturday through Sunday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
     WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05