209
FXUS61 KRLX 172351
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
751 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropically influenced airmass remains over the region with
numerous weak disturbances passing through. Locally heavy
showers and storms are possible into next week. Where soils
become increasingly compromised with heavy rainfall, flash
flooding becomes progressively more likely with added heavy
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 750 PM Thursday...

A line of showers and thunderstorms was rumbling into the
mountains early this evening, with stratiform rain in its wake.
The line of showers and thunderstorms tailed westward into
Kentucky, with the stratiform rain to the north. As such,
showers and thunderstorms will persist longest across the south
this evening.

Rainfall across much of the area today, and light low level
flow with a front sagging southward into northern portions of
the area tonight, are likely to allow areas of fog to form,
which could become locally dense overnight.

As of 120 PM Thursday...

Key Messages:

* A quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the Ohio Valley
  and Central Appalachians will remain the focus for daily shower
  and thunderstorm development through the weekend

* Continued locally heavy rain atop of increasingly locally
  compromised soils could lead to flash flooding, some locally
  significant

* Wet microbursts may produce locally damaging wind gusts, but
  widespread severe weather is not expected

* A brief respite from the tropically influenced airmass is possible
  early next week

A mid-level ridge anchored over the southeast US and slowly
approaching cold frontal boundary currently extending from near CLE
to STL are the dominant synoptic features affecting the region
through the near term period. Along and of the front, precipitable
water values near 2 inches are forecast in-line with 12Z observed
upstream upper air soundings while values north slowly taper off,
but remain above 75th percentile values for this time of the year.

Although mid-level lapse rates remain rather paltry (~5.5C/km)
typical of a tropically influenced airmass, ample low level moisture
and surface heating should yield 1000-2500J/kg MLCAPE by peak
heating this afternoon. With deep-layer shear forecast to remain
relatively weak (15-25KTs), the convective mode will favor
loosely organized multicell clusters. Given the degree of
instability and moisture, any storm will be capable of producing
torrential rainfall with a few instances of gusty winds
associated with wet microbursts. While storms will be moving
along at 20-25 mph, surface convergence along the aforementioned
frontal boundary will begin to lay out more west to east across
our area by early this evening, slowly sinking south through
the night. This boundary should provide a focusing mechanism for
storms which would strongly suggest some west to east training
potential. Some areas across our north have seen significant
precipitation over the last several days with 3hr flash flood
guidance as low as 1.2 inches. Farther south precipitation has
been much more spotty with 3hr guidance generally in excess of 2
inches.

Convection is expected to wane after sunset with the loss of diurnal
heating. However, the stalling front may continue to provide enough
forcing to maintain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
overnight, continuing the localized heavy rain threat. A flash flood
watch remains in effect through midnight tonight.

No change in the setup for Friday, except the cold front reverses
course and slowly head back to the north as a warm front. This will
continue to serve as a focusing mechanism for storms in the
afternoon, and west to east training will once again be a concern,
especially across the aforementioned areas that already have
compromised soils. There has been some discussion with neighboring
WFOs with how to both cover this, and a continuing threat with the
same airmass lingering for Saturday. Current local thinking is that
there will be enough of a gap late tonight into Friday afternoon to
hoist a separate flash flood watch for the later events. For those
amplifying our messaging, the message we want to get out is that
this type of setup has the POTENTIAL to produce significant
localized rainfall amounts leading to life threatening flash
flooding. If you live in a vulnerable area (example - a hollow
draining a fairly large area with structures along a fairly narrow
drainage near the mouth) it is extremely important to maintain
situational awareness through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Not much change in the pattern is expected through the weekend with
upper level ridging remaining over the southeast with high zonal
flow across the north featuring a warn front lifting north early
Saturday leaving the entire region mired deeply in the tropically
influenced airmass and approaching cold front Sunday which looks to
finally have some potential to push all the way south through the
area. The main concern will continue to be locally heavy rain over
potentially significantly compromised soils (contingent on preceding
rainfall). As mentioned in the near term discussion, will likely
need at least some continuing flood watches, largely contingent on
soil conditions. While localized significant rainfall totals are
possible, average rainfall over the larger basins will remain quite
manageable, generally 2 to 3 inches from today through Sunday so
problems on any larger waterways are not anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

From Monday through Wednesday, ridging tries to build over the
center of the country This should leave our region on the
eastern flank of the plume of better column moisture. This
should result in a decrease in convective coverage and
intensity. However, the atmosphere will not be completely void
of moisture, and isolated to widely scattered afternoon "pop-up"
thunderstorms will still be possible, especially over the
higher terrain. The primary sensible weather story will be the
building heat. High temperatures are forecast to climb from the
upper 80s on Monday into the low 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
With continued humidity, heat index values will likely approach
the mid to upper 90s during the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM Thursday...

A line of showers and thunderstorms was rumbling into the
mountains early this evening, with EKN and BKW to be impacted
by thunderstorms that could bring IFR or worse conditions in
heavy rain during the first hour or so of the forecast. Strong
wind gusts are also possible, especially at BKW. Otherwise light
rain may bring MVFR conditions tonight.

Rainfall across much of the area today, and light low level
flow with a front sagging southward into northern portions of
the area tonight, are likely to allow areas of valley fog to
form, which could become locally dense overnight. Have IFR fog
coded for EKN, CRW and HTS overnight, although IFR fog at HTS is
allowed right from the start of the forecast.

Conditions slowly improve after sunrise as fog and stratus
lift and dissipate, but another active afternoon with showers
and thunderstorms is expected.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, locations and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms could vary from the forecast. Overnight fog
formation could also vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
into next week. IFR or worse fog is also possible during the
overnights, especially where any heavy rain falls the previous
day or evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM