826
FXUS61 KRLX 141026
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
626 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather stretches across the work week amid strong upper
level ridging. A moisture starved cold frontal passage around
midweek will bring cooler weather to close out the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

At the time of writing, low pressure churning off the Delmarva
coast continues to cast low stratus through the northeast WV
mountains, with a sharp cutoff along the I-79 corridor. West of
this delineation, clear skies prevail amid strengthening
influence of upper level ridging to our west. Areas nestled
beneath clouds this morning remain warmer than locations under
clear skies and sufficient radiational cooling. This trend will
likely hold through sunrise.

River valley fog formation for this morning will be sparse
under the guise of breezy northeasterly flow stemming from the
coastal disturbance. These winds are anticipated to mix out
throughout the morning down to the surface, in addition to
eroding the mountain stratus deck into afternoon fair weather
cumulus.

Today will once again advertise mostly quiet and dry weather as
the coastal low navigates eastward into the Atlantic and high
pressure strengthens to our west. Afternoon highs will reach the
low 70s across the Tri-State area and the 50s and 60s for our
mountain and foothill locations. Overnight lows are anticipated
to range in the 40s across the board tonight into Wednesday
morning amid the combination of patchy low level stratus and
river valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Expansive upper level ridging anchored over the Gulf coast will
maintain strong influence over the Central Appalachians through
the short term period. At the surface, a cold front will quietly
sail through the forecast area on Wednesday. The ridge will
fortify abundant dry air through the entire atmospheric profile,
resulting in the cold frontal passage to be deprived of moisture
and impose no chance of showers as it passes overhead.

Main implications from FROPA will be a slight shift of column
flow from the northeast to the northwest and the intrusion of
cooler air accompanying surface high pressure. While less
noticeable during the day, this cooler airmass will enforce
overnight lows to tumble down to the 30s in the northeast WV
mountains Wednesday night and across the north-central parts of
the CWA on Thursday night. Frost/freeze headlines will most
likely be warranted during those time frames if this forecast
trend holds, so will continue to monitor the extent of possible
affected counties over the next few forecast cycles.

Forecast soundings also suggest deep pockets of dry air parked
above the surface Thursday afternoon as the center of the
surface high travels down into the Mid-Atlantic region for the
end of the work week. MinRH values could certainly bottom out
into the 30s across the board Thursday afternoon and down into
the 20s in mountain locations. Surface to low level column flow
is progged to be fairly light for Thursday, and coupled with
limited leaf litter as it currently stands, fire weather
concerns will be kept at bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

The upper level pattern begins to transform for the end of the
work week as the dominating ridge makes forward progress into
the eastern half of the country in order to make room for a
digging trough over in the Intermountain West region.
Abundantly dry air remains prevalent for Friday afternoon, with
MinRH values once again bottoming out in the 20s and 30s. A
slight warming trend also takes shape with the ridge building
overhead, causing daytime temperatures to rise a few degrees
above normal for this time of year. Depending on fuel levels by
the end of the week, fire weather concerns could be increased,
but could once again be mitigated by the lack of surface winds
that reduces the risk of fire spread.

After the multi-day stretch of dry weather through the course of
the work week, the chance for precipitation makes a return for
the weekend. Upper level troughing swinging through the CONUS
will be accompanied by a cold front at the surface, which is
progged to form a tail of showers and potential thunderstorms as
it ventures into the Ohio Valley. SPC has already denoted an
area of possible strong thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon in
their Day 5 outlook across portions of the western Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys, which may make an attempt to reach our forecast
area sometime late Saturday night into Sunday. After a rather
dry start to the fall season, denoted by the bulk of the
forecast area finding themselves in some state of drought, this
frontal passage should provide some relief to current conditions
with the arrival of beneficial rainfall.

The end of the forecast period vaguely resembles the restoration
of dry weather, with global model solutions varying on the
timing of the frontal passage and the extent of lingering post-
frontal showers.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 625 AM Tuesday...

Low level stratus sliding down from the northeast, prompted by
a disturbance churning offshore, will supply periods of sub-VFR
ceilings to our northern TAF sites over the next few hours.
Nighttime satellite imagery also shows river valley fog in areas
not encased beneath clouds, particularly in the Charleston
metro area and southward.

After daybreak, breezy flow aloft will mix down to the surface
and should scatter out, albeit at a sluggish pace, the veil of
stratus hovering over the region. The coastal low will make its
eastward departure into the Atlantic throughout the day, leaving
behind gradient winds that will likely linger into the end of
the TAF period. This should once again mitigate sufficient fog
development overnight into Wednesday morning, but could see
some attempt to form in sheltered valley spots near EKN and CRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions due to stratus cloud invading
from the north may vary from the forecast this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning for the
rest of this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05