391
FXUS61 KRLX 011113
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
713 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather opens up the month of September amid high
pressure. The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases
mid-week ahead of a cold front, which crosses Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 710 AM Monday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 120 AM Monday...

High pressure sprawling across the Great Lakes and northeast
will provide dry, comfortable weather this Labor Day. As a weak
inverted trough in the light northeast to southeast surface/low
level flow south of the high slides slowly westward, the axis
of high dew points comes westward out of the mountains, and with
surface/low level ridging taking hold, this should prevent a
repeat of afternoon and evening convection there.

Early morning late summer steam fog will continue to be confined
to the deeper river valleys.

Central guidance reflects temperatures holding close to normal
on highs and a little below normal on lows amid this benign
late summer weather pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Surface high pressure to the north of the area maintains dry
weather through Tuesday night, despite mid/upper-level southern
stream troughing. With return moistening flow around the back
side of high pressure that exits Wednesday, afternoon convection
becomes a possibility.

Long wave trough amplification takes place over eastern North
America Wednesday and Wednesday night, as a northern stream
mid/upper-level low drops southeastward into the Great Lakes,
filling the pre-existing void north of the lingering southern
stream short wave. The chance for mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday is still tied to the lingering
southern stream feature, and northward moisture return raising
surface dew points into the lower 60s.

A cold front approaches the Ohio Valley ahead of the digging
mid/upper-level low Wednesday night. As a result, after showers
and thunderstorms initially fade with sunset Wednesday evening,
the chance for at least showers increases again overnight, at
least over the middle Ohio Valley.

Central guidance reflects highs remaining close to normal on
Tuesday, and then slightly below on Wednesday on increased cloud
cover and shower and thunderstorm coverage. By contrast, lows
gradually come up during the period on increasing dew points
and cloud cover, getting close to normal by Wednesday night..

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

A long wave trough remains entrenched over eastern North
America much of this period. Its initial push drives a surface
cold front through the area on Thursday, with showers and
possible thunderstorms in the afternoon heating ahead of it.
Long range and central guidance suggest the potential for one
half to one and a half inches beneficial rainfall from this
system including a little starting Tuesday afternoon, but the
lions share of it coming Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening, as PW values climb to a modest inch and a half. This
should be easily managed hydrologically given the antecedent
rather dry conditions

Thunderstorms anywhere east of the front Thursday afternoon can
organize and become strong, amid modest CAPE of 1-2 KJ/kg and
0-6/8 km shear to around 40 kts.

Dry, cool weather sets in to finish the short work week on
Friday, as a bubble high settles in over the area. Mid/upper-
level flow actually backs ahead of another short wave trough
moving through the long wave trough position. This drives a
secondary cold front through the area Friday night into
Saturday. Central guidance reflects little if any precipitation
with this system, with the initial front taking out most of the
deep-layer moisture, and unfavorable timing relative to diurnal
heating.

A large high pressure system then builds over the area to
finish out next weekend, sprawling across the northeast, Ohio
Valley and middle Atlantic. However, mid/upper-level heights
build, as the long wave trough begins to lift out. All of this
spells dry, cool weather next weekend, followed by temperatures
beginning to moderate during the early portion of the following
work week, amid continued dry, benign weather.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 710 AM Monday...

Any fog impacting CRW and EKN will dissipate by 13Z.

High pressure to the north will provide VFR conditions, with
light northeast to southeast surface flow as a weak inverted
trough slides slowly westward. This will take the axis of high
dew points westward out of the mountains, and with surface/low
level ridging taking hold, this should prevent a repeat of
afternoon and evening convection there.

Valley fog will begin forming along the Tygart and Elk River
valleys again 07-09Z overnight tonight, with fog becoming dense
at EKN 08-09Z and then lifting 12-13Z. Dense fog along the Elk
River is less likely to impact CRW, as guidance is not
indicating any.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog at EKN overnight
tonight and early Tuesday morning may vary. Fog may lift out of
the Elk River valley and impact the airfield at CRW near dawn
Tuesday, despite the optimistic guidance there.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in heavier showers and storms within an
encroaching cold front midweek, especially Thursday. IFR
possible in fog and stratus early Friday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record low temperature of 46 degrees was set at Parkersburg,
WV Sunday. This broke the old record of 49 degrees set in 1929
and then tied in 1935 and 1976.

Over the last five days, Parkersburg has set or tied a record
on four of the five days (set two and tied two).

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM

CLIMATE...MEK/TRM/GW