009
FXUS61 KRLX 261550
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1150 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues a stretch of hot and humid weather with
the chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms
with localized downpours. A cold front arrives late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1141 AM Saturday...

A dome of high pressure will remain situated over the southeastern
U.S. this weekend, leading to continued heat and humidity. It is
important to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air
conditioning if spending extended time outdoors. Be aware of the
signs of heat-related illnesses, such as dizziness, confusion,
weakness, and nausea. More information on heat safety is available
at weather.gov/safety/heat.

While isolated showers and storms are possible today, the best
chance for more scattered to widespread activity will likely be
concentrated north of our coverage area, with mid-level shortwaves
tracking around the edge of the high-pressure system. The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has placed northern West Virginia and
southeast Ohio under a marginal risk for severe weather today. The
primary threat from any storms that develop will be localized
damaging wind gusts, given the weak to marginal shear in the
atmosphere.

The chance for showers and storms is expected to increase on Sunday
as the upper-level high shifts slightly west, allowing weak
disturbances to approach the central Appalachians. This will likely
result in more widespread thunderstorm coverage. With high
atmospheric moisture, indicated by PWATs potentially exceeding 2.00
inches, localized flooding will be a concern. Both the SPC and the
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) have placed portions of the area
under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and severe storms for
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1142 AM Saturday...

The heat wave is forecast to persist into the new work week as the
center of the upper-level high pressure moves and expands over the
Central U.S. There is some disagreement among forecast models
regarding the peak intensity of this high-pressure system; for
example, the ECMWF model suggests it will reach maximum strength on
Tuesday, while other models indicate a peak on Monday.

Lingering weak energy in the mid-levels of the atmosphere may allow
for isolated showers and thunderstorms on both Monday and Tuesday.
There is a possibility that heat on Tuesday could approach extreme
heat warning criteria, with actual air temperatures forecast to
reach the lower 90s and heat indices potentially ranging from 100 to
105 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1142 AM Saturday...

Looking ahead, some forecast models, including recent runs of the
GFS and ECMWF, suggest that the dominant 500-mb high pressure could
break into two separate centers by Wednesdayone over the central
U.S. and another over the East Coast. This scenario could
potentially make Wednesday the hottest day of the week, with
afternoon temperatures possibly reaching the mid-90s and heat
indices meeting or exceeding extreme heat warning criteria in the
lowlands.

Confidence is growing in a significant pattern change toward the end
of the week. Most deterministic and ensemble models are projecting a
cold front will pass through the region. While there is some
discrepancy among the models regarding the exact timing of this
frontal passage, it is expected to be followed by another area of
high pressure building in over the upper Midwest and northern Great
Lakes. This would usher in a refreshing northerly breeze for next
weekend, significantly lowering humidity to more comfortable levels
in the 50s during the day.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 635 AM Saturday...

Fog had formed at EKN, PKB and CKB early this morning. Already
gone at CKB, it should be lifting and gone by 13Z at EKN and
PKB, and the mist/haze at BKW should thin out by 14Z. MVFR
stratocumulus is possible for a time this morning, mainly in and
near the mountains.

Unlike on Friday, thunderstorms this afternoon and evening are
possible just about anywhere, but coverage is again forecast to
be isolated to scattered. LIFR in heavy rain, frequent lightning
and gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorm today.

The thunderstorms will again complicate the fog forecast for
overnight tonight, especially since the chance for storms
themselves will not entirely vanish, given the very moist and
unstable airmass in place. MVFR stratocumulus may complicate
the fog forecast even further overnight tonight.

Surface flow will generally be light and variable to southwest,
except gusty and erratic in and near afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Light west to northwest flow aloft early this
morning will become light southwest by this afternoon, and then
remain that way through tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR stratocu formation this morning is
uncertain. Amendments may be needed for direct impacts from
thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. Timing and
extent of restrictions in fog overnight tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms again Sunday
afternoon and evening, which in turn could lead to IFR fog
overnight Sunday night into early Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>031.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TRM