846
FXUS61 KRLX 211736
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were necessary at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Severe storms expected this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid level shortwave energy will dive south into the area into the
afternoon hours, followed by a cold front late this evening into the
overnight. As a cluster of elevated convection associated with this
shortwave approaches our area, it will encounter a very moist and
unstable environment, with convection becoming more surface based as
it enters our CWA. CAPE values progged to approach 2000 to 4000
J/kg, and increasing shear values of 40 to 60 kts in the 0-6km
layer, will result in potential for storms to become organized.
Damaging winds are the primary hazard, with convection potentially
organizing into lines/bowing segments, but with that being said,
there is a tornado threat as well, with low LCL heights less than
1500m and 0-3km SRH greater than 250.

Timing of the severe activity is difficult to pinpoint, but appears
most should occur in the afternoon to early/mid evening hours, with
an additional round of convection expected with the front later
tonight. It`s possible some of this convection associated with the
front could be low end severe, but with loss of heating, and any
effects earlier convection has on the overall environment,
confidence isn`t high.

Lastly, with any storms that occur, flash flooding is a possibility,
with the overall anomalously high PW are that continues to remain in
place. This should mainly be a threat in locations that receive
repetitive rounds of convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Scattered showers and storms through at least 06Z when a
decrease in intensity and coverage should be noted. Storms will
be capable of brief IFR/LIFR or worse conditions, and strong
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado and large hail.

After 06Z, expect widespread IFR/LIFR fog and/or stratus, with a
gradual improvement to VFR with light surface winds expected
after 13Z to 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Impacts due to thunderstorms could vary,
including timing and worse impacts than forecast. Fog and/or
stratus late tonight and Wednesday morning may be worse than
currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR valley fog each morning through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>523-525-526.
OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL