925
FXUS61 KRLX 200157
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
957 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Much
stronger cold front arrives for the weekend, dropping temperatures
significantly.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 955 PM Tuesday...

A convective line, associated with a passing cold front, will
continue to dissipate as it moves west of the OH River before
midnight. Rest of forecast remains on track. Isolated showers or
storms remains on the forecast for the rest of tonight.

As of 150 PM Tuesday...

After a hot and fairly humid day today, a cold front currently
to our west and northwest will approach the area tonight. Some
showers and lingering storms may move into Southeast Ohio and
the Mid-Ohio Valley during the evening and early overnight
hours. Much of the activity may fizzle as the night wears on,
but a few showers may keep going with the weak forcing of the
front. SPC does maintain the most northwestern sliver of our CWA
under a Marginal risk for severe storms, with the only real risk
being damaging winds from water-loaded downdrafts from any
stronger storms that can grow sufficiently high. The best chance
for strong storms in our CWA will be if they arrive early,
around sunset, while they can still feed on some of the daytime
heating. A later arrival would likely preclude much if any
chance of severe storms.

While winds tonight will be light and skies mostly clear, there
should be just enough synoptic flow from the south and southwest
to keep fog formation to a minimum. After an early morning
minimum in activity, showers and thunderstorms will blossom late
tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours as daytime heating
combines with the frontal forcing. With model PWAT values in the
1.5-2.0 inch range, some locally very heavy rain rates are
possible, and WPC does have us under a Marginal risk of flash
flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

The front should be mostly clear of the CWA by Wednesday
evening, though some showers may linger till around midnight
before activity dissipates. There should be enough N`ly flow
behind the front to prevent fog formation in most valleys,
despite the anticipated earlier rainfall. Highs on Thursday
behind the front should be near normal, mainly low to mid-80s
at lower elevations, and upper 60s to upper 70s in the
mountains. There should be enough lingering moisture and perhaps
a bit of forcing from a weak trough extending west from
Hurricane Erin offshore to promote more showers and storms,
mainly in the eastern part of the CWA. Weak high pressure and
clear skies may allow for some decent amount of fog Thursday
night. Abundant sunshine on Friday should allow for modestly
warmer temperatures compared to Thursday, with just a stray
shower possible in the mountains that afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

No major changes in the long-term forecast thinking. A strong
cold front will push through Saturday night or Sunday,
providing a significant change in temperatures for at least the
beginning of the next work week. There is some disagreement on
the timing of the front between the models, but the models agree
in the significantly cooler temperatures and much lower dew
points behind the front. Indeed, while it`s just outside the
period for this forecast, probabilistic NBM data was showing
well over 50% chance for lows under 60F Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM Tuesday...

The period starts with widespread VFR conditions ahead of an
approaching cold front. Strong convection is evident on radar
imagery moving southeast across north-central KY. This
trajectory keeps convection outside our CWA this evening.
However, will continue monitoring convection along the front.
Guidance does not show much in terms of convection over our
terminals this evening. So, kept conditions dry.

Kept reasoning from previous shift on convection expected
Wednesday afternoon. Kept PROB30 groups with thunderstorms
roughly from 12Z to 18Z.

A puff in the wind should be enough to prevent fog formation
tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of showers tomorrow may
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 08/20/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night.

IFR possible in river valley fog most mornings the rest of the
work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK/ARJ