028
FXUS61 KRLX 250021
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
721 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather through Monday morning. The next cold front brings
rain later Monday into early Tuesday. Rain and mountain snow
possible to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 PM Sunday...

No major changes were made to the forecast, as things appear to
be generally on track. Did tweak tonight`s low temps down a bit
in some spots based on current conditions and trends.


As of 1250 PM Sunday...

The forecast area has branched back out to pleasant sunshine
this afternoon in the midst of surface high pressure. One last
batch of low hanging stratus was scattering out across north-
central West Virginia at the time of writing while high cirrus
periodically passes overhead from the west. Low level flow out
of the southwest has established itself at most weather stations
this afternoon, which will tap into warming temperatures to
round out the weekend. Charleston and Huntington had already
surpassed 50 degrees at noon and is projected to plateau into
the mid to upper 50s for the day. For our northern and eastern
zones, lingering morning cloud deck prompted a delay in warming
temperatures, but should still rise into the upper 40s in the
northern lowlands and the 40s along the higher terrain.

High pressure will retain residency over the region tonight
under mostly clear skies. Morning lows will topple down into the
30s across the board, but should quickly ramp up into the
50s/60s on Monday ahead of our next disturbance.

The surface high will swiftly depart to the east throughout the
day Monday as the next low pressure system/cold front aims for
the forecast area late in the near term period. Strengthening
southwesterly flow will yield the aforementioned warm up into
the 50s and 60s during the day, followed by increasing cloud
coverage by the late afternoon into the early afternoon. Higher
resolution model guidance depict rain sprinting ahead of the
front and could arrive to the lower Ohio Valley as early as
mid-morning. This will then slowly graze our northwestern zones
throughout the day from southwest to northeast, then establish
further into the forecast area in the afternoon and evening as
the front inches closer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1204 PM Sunday...

Rain will continue into the mid morning or early afternoon hours of
Tuesday, with some gradual clearing expected by the late afternoon.
Rainfall totals will generally remain light, only amounting to 0.25-
0.50" across most of the region. After a briefly mild day Monday,
Tuesday will return to seasonably cool weather with highs only in
the upper 40s across the mountains and the lower 50s in the
lowlands. High pressure will build into the region Tuesday into
Wednesday, bringing a two-day stretch of mainly dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1204 PM Sunday...

The next low pressure system will approach from the west Wednesday
night into Thanksgiving morning, likely bringing another round of
rain to the area for Thanksgiving Day. In the mountains,
temperatures may be cold enough for precipitation to begin as some
mixed rain and snow showers, before transitioning to rain for the
majority of the day. Models are in good agreement showing a strong
blast of cold air advection following this system for Thursday night
into Friday, with overnight lows likely to be in the upper 20s and
lower 30s. This cold blast will allow for a transition from rain to
snow showers, first in the mountains and eventually in some of the
lowlands, late Thursday night into Friday morning.

There is some potential for upslope snow showers during the day
Friday with a west-northwest flow, but models are not in
agreement with the low-level moisture profile, with some showing
drier air and others showing more saturated air with a moisture
connection from the Great Lakes. This could be the difference
between isolated and more widely scattered snow showers.
Confidence will increase with time as models come into better
agreement.

This unusually cold airmass will continue throughout the weekend and
into the new week, with highs no better than the 20s and 30s
areawide Friday through Monday. In addition, we will also monitor
for potential on and off snow showers, particularly in the northern
WV mountains. Snow chances may increase a bit Sunday into Monday
with models showing another burst of cold air and upper-level energy
diving into the region from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 620 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions through tomorrow morning, as skies remain clear
tonight, with high and then mid-level clouds moving in Monday
morning. Southern sites are likely to remain VFR through the
period, though some low VFR ceilings could start to work in to
HTS and CRW by midday, with PROB30 for showers for the last few
hours of the TAF. EKN should also stay VFR through the period,
unless they get some unexpected fog later tonight should they
decouple thoroughly enough.

For PKB and CKB, clouds will begin lowering earlier, with MVFR
CIGs in the prevailing forecast from around 18z onward. However,
it will likely still take a while for precip to start even in
these northern sites.

A low-level jet currently over Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio
Valleys will weaken as it shifts east towards our CWA tonight.
However, it may still have enough winds aloft to produce a bit
of LLWS late tonight into early tomorrow morning for HTS, but
shouldn`t impact other sites. The LLJ may strengthen again
during the day tomorrow based on some model data, but enough
gusty winds should mix down to the surface to reduce any LLWS
below TAF thresholds.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS may develop in additional sites before
sunrise Monday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR ceilings and low visibility possible late Monday night into
Tuesday as a cold front crosses with rain showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/FK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...FK