955
FXUS61 KRLX 070508
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
108 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers early this morning across northern West Virginia,
otherwise dry today. Cold front with light rain Thursday into
Friday morning then mainly dry through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 105 AM Wednesday...

The upper level low pressure system that has kept precipitation
over the area will be moving off to the northeast this morning.
This will cause the showers over northern West Virginia to end
this morning, leaving dry weather today and a warmer afternoon.

Another system approaching from the west could push some
precipitation into southwest Virginia, southern west Virginia,
and northeast Kentucky late tonight, but chances are small.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1144 AM Tuesday...

Another chance of showers and thunderstorms may exist Thursday as a
frontal boundary and a stream of 500-mb vorticity approach from the
west. Some model solutions show modest instability developing by 18Z
Thursday across central and southern portions of our area, but
others show very weak instability across our area during this time.
Therefore, thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but confidence is low
due to model disagreement. A cool night is expected Thursday night
beyond the frontal passage with lows in the 40s areawide.

Dry weather is currently expected Friday with high pressure over the
Great Lakes and an upper-level low over the Deep South and the Gulf.
However, if the upper-level low is positioned farther north than
expected, showers could be reintroduced to the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1144 AM Tuesday...

Dry weather is currently expected over the weekend with high
pressure building over the northeast and the upper-level low still
stuck in the Deep South. However, changes in the placement of these
synoptic features could dramatically change the forecast, so we will
be monitoring for that in the coming days. The upper-level low is
currently expected to slide back to the north by Monday, which will
reintroduce rain chances across our region for the start of the new
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 105 AM Wednesday...

Some locations could see low level wind shear this morning.

A final band of showers rotating around an upper level low will
gradually end this morning over northern West Virginia. This
area could see some IFR restrictions in visibilities or low
clouds. South of this area expect VFR conditions.

By this afternoon, the entire area should return to VFR
conditions.

Dense river valley fog is expected to form late Wednesday
evening and night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low this morning across central OH and
northern WV, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The southern extent of MVFR/IFR clouds over
central Ohio and northern West Virginia could vary this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 05/07/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    M    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions in morning fog are possible Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY