453
FXUS61 KRLX 201131
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
731 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled boundary drapes itself over the area today before
lifting as a warm front overnight. A cold front pushes through
Monday. Another system arrives late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 730 AM Sunday...

Some patchy rain or drizzle is being observed on mountain
observations and webcams, have added some lower end PoPs to the
forecast this morning.


As of 630 AM Sunday...

The forecast is behaving as anticipated this morning, so no
necessary adjustments were needed at this time. The front at the
time of writing was now analyzed to be draped through the
southern coalfields and through the Greenbrier Valley. If
afternoon precipitation were to develop today, the best
potential will be nestled close to where the front is aligned.

As of 150 AM Sunday...

A frontal boundary draped along the Ohio River with the latest
surface analysis is progged to migrate a bit further
southeastward during the morning before stalling out through the
heart of the forecast area today. This will likely cause a split
in afternoon temperatures, where locations north of the front,
such as Parkersburg and Clarksburg, will only reach the mid 70s
today under northwesterly flow, and areas near or south of the
boundary will achieve temps in the low 80s due to uninterrupted
onshore flow. There could be some flexibility in high
temperatures today as a result of where the front stalls during
peak heating hours.

The area will remain concealed beneath partly cloudy skies today
in the midst of the front`s residency overhead. The boundary may
also act as a source for enough lift along the higher terrain to
produce isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two late this
afternoon into tonight.

After being nestled within the far northern fringes of a Bermuda
high pressure system the past few days, a stronger push of
moisture will begin to venture in from the west late tonight
into the start of the work week. A negatively tilted upper
level trough works its way into the Great Lakes region by the
second half of the day, coupled with a strengthening disturbance
at the surface. This is set to serve up a secondary cold front
during the short term forecast period and enforce the stalled
front loitering over us to lift as a warm front overnight into
Monday. While a few isolated showers may make enough eastward
progress into the lower Ohio Valley late tonight, the bulk of
activity will arrive on Monday with the front itself.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Key Point:
* Cold front brings rain and storms Monday into Monday night.

On Monday, rain and storms spread into the area as a cold front
approaches from the west and the parent low trudges northeast across
the Great Lakes. The system pushes the front through the CWA late
Monday into Monday night, with precipitation chances slowly tapering
off as high pressure moves in behind the front.

The frontal boundary lingers just southeast of the area on Tuesday,
potentially sustaining some precipitation in southwest VA and
southeast WV while high pressure promotes drier conditions for the
rest of the area.

Daytime high temperatures are expected to range from mid 70s to 80s
in the lowlands and upper 60s to 70s over the higher terrain on
Monday. The frontal passage brings temperatures back down to normal
on Tuesday, with 70s expected for the lowlands and 60s to low 70s in
the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Key Point:
* Unsettled late week into the weekend.

High pressure should keep most of the area dry while a boundary
continues to lurk to the south on Wednesday; however, a passing
shortwave could allow a few showers to edge into the
southeastern part of the CWA. Unsettled conditions redevelop
for the end of the work week as another system lifts the
aforementioned boundary north as a warm front, and then sends a
cold front across the area next weekend.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal until the
arrival of the weekend cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

A cold front will be draped over our airspace today and will
serve up potential for isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder late this afternoon into tonight. For this morning, a
thin strip of MVFR ceilings attached to the boundary have
infiltrated a few TAF sites (EKN, CRW, and HTS) but should
gradually lift as the sun rises for the day. This front is then
progged to lift once more late tonight into Monday ahead of a
stronger disturbance arriving for the start of the work week.

Winds early this morning will grow light and variable in
response to the shifting frontal boundary. TAF sites north of
the front during the day today will observe winds out of the
north, while other locations will remain light and variable as
the front remains nestled nearby. Surface flow will then shift
back out of the south overnight as the front lifts into the
Mid-Atlantic region.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Morning MVFR stratus may linger longer than
anticipated.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SUN 04/20/25
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms with a cold
front on Monday evening and Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...MEK/JP
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MEK