591
FXUS61 KRLX 050946
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
546 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure promotes dry, but hot weather through the
holiday weekend. A weak cold front brings back the chance
for showers and thunderstorms to begin the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Hi-res models keep us dry for today with high pressure sitting
at the surface and aloft. Temperatures will be on the rise
today getting to the mid 90s in some locations, but overall we
are a lot drier and with dewpoints in the mid 60s, we are below
the threshold for a heat advisory as indexes reach only mid
90s. During the afternoon a small cumulus field should develop
but will not be as prominent as yesterday with only some
forecast soundings indicating this solution. Dry air in the
column and low lapse rates suggest not too much too worry about
in the form of shower activity, but we cannot rule one or two
isolated ones due to the NAM12 and SREF suggesting a few along
the mountains. Blended model guidance did suggest no chances so
elected to go with that since at least Hi-res models and most
other models keep us dry.

Tonight temperatures will be slightly higher than seasonable
and weak surface flow and mainly clear skies will allow for
valley to develop once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

For Sunday, upper level riding flattens out and surface
high pressure sticks around to keep us fairly dry once again.
Temperatures will get about a degree or two higher than
Saturday and with dewpoints in the mid 60s and dry air in the
column we will not get to that advisory criteria for heat
although some locations will get near the 100 degree mark for
heat indexes along the Ohio River urban areas. An afternoon
cumulus field looks more apparent than the previous day and
will likely squeeze out a few drops along the mountains, but
blended guidance has just slight chances on the southeastern
West Virignia border due to a disturbance from the south.

For Monday, not as hot as Sunday, but we do get some moisture
advection ahead of the cold front due for Tuesday within
southwesterly flow. With dewpoints inching into the mid 70s
heat indexes will be at their greatest for this entire forecast
package with many locations hitting near the 100 degree mark. A
heat advisory may be needed in the near future. High pressure
does hold off much activity for the morning and into the
afternoon, however activity ahead of the approaching cold front
from the west will likely spawn some cells that may produce
showers or thunderstorms.

With high instability to work with and moisture and above
environmental lapse rates we could have chances of shower
activity across much of the area, mainly diurnally driven during
the afternoon and evening. Central guidance did suggest
chances, higher for the afternoon, for the area across much of
the day and night as that cold front moves in. The main threat
would be likely strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy
downpours although PWATS and the column are not super saturated
and steering flow and shear is modest to keep things moving,
therefore hydro issues should be a minimum since we have had a
nice dry streak.

Tuesday has cold frontal passage taking place although models
do have it being stalled across the area into Wednesday as a
wave of low pressure rides along the boundary. Temperatures
will get down to about seasonable and I would suspect that
chances the blended model guidance gave us are diurnally driven
but one cannot rule out activity overnight as that boundary
stalls. Slight chances were given by blended model guidance
which indicates this solution being a possibility overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

From midweek on, diurnally driven storm and shower activity
will be likely across the area starting on Wednesday as that
aforementioned front moves along across to our north. A wave of
low pressure riding along the boundary will directly hit the
area on Thursday and into Friday suggesting more activity will
likely ramp up as models have a hold on this feature fairly
well. Blended model guidance has likely PoPs for the latter half
of the week, therefore it seems the long term will become
fairly active toward the end, especially for the afternoons and
evenings.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 600 AM Saturday...

After valley fog this morning conditions are expected to be VFR
for the rest of this period. Have coded up all sites but BKW
with IFR or worse in fog through 12Z. By afternoon, a cumulus
field should develop, but will not be as prominent as yesterday
and should not cause any restrictions, mainly scattered. The
area should remain dry under weak surface flow out of the east-
southeast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of fog
formation may vary from the forecast this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 07/05/25
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in river valley fog Sunday/Monday
mornings, primarily at EKN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 140 AM Saturday...

It was a very warm June across the NWS Charleston forecast
area. Mean temperatures for the month of June 2025 were
generally 2 to 4 degrees above normal. This translated into
four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the top
10 in terms of their warmest mean June temperatures on record.
Precipitation totals varied significantly across the forecast
area, with some locations below normal, while others were above
normal.

Listed below are the locations, ranks, and observed values of
the top tens that were set.

          June 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature)
-------------------------------------------------------------
  Location           Top 10 Rank           Observed Value
-------------------------------------------------------------
- Elkins, WV       : 2nd Warmest        -> 71.6 F
- Beckley, WV      : 3rd Warmest        -> 71.4 F
- Clarksburg, WV   : 3rd Warmest        -> 74.0 F
- Huntington, WV   : 7th Warmest        -> 76.9 F
-------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ

CLIMATE...