446
FXUS61 KRLX 091146
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
646 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses today with rain, then much colder
tonight into the early portion of the new work week, with the
first snowfall of the season.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM Sunday...

Forecast on track, with showers ahead of the cold front just
arriving along the western flank of the forecast area.
Thunderstorms within this line  were lessening, although we
received a call from our COOP in Warnuck, KY, with a report of
thunder while writing this.

As of 255 AM Sunday...

While clouds and low level flow increase early this morning,
ahead of the next system approaching from the west, the high
clouds were thin enough to allow some river valley fog to form.
Any fog should burn off before daybreak west and around daybreak
east.

The next system is a strong cold front initially driven by a
mid/upper-level short wave trough that lifts out to the
northeast through the upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes
today. Short wave troughs then cross the area this evening and
toward dawn Monday, ahead of a much deeper mid/upper-level
trough with an embedded elongated, multi-center mid-level
low/upper level trough, the main long wave, that digs southward
through the Great Lakes today and into the OH and TN valleys
tonight.

In response, a surface low pressure center over the lower OH
Valley early this morning whips a cold front across the area
this morning as it moves east-northeastward across the OH
Valley. The low then moves on into the northeastern states this
afternoon and tonight.

Showers in the lower Ohio Valley associated with the low and
cold front, with thunderstorms south of the OH River, will cross
the area ahead of the cold front later this morning. The severe
risk with any low-topped thunderstorms this morning will be low
given low CAPE, despite immense winter shear, but even the
showers could bring down gusty winds. Showers will become more
widely scattered in the wake of the cold front this afternoon,
but winds will strengthen and become gusty, up to 30 mph over
the higher ridges, and temperatures will turn around from their
morning rise and head down.

After climbing well into the 50s ahead of the cold front this
morning across the WV lowlands and foothills and southwest VA,
and around 50 northwest and in the higher terrain, temperatures
will fall back through the 50s, 40s northwest and in the
mountains this afternoon in the cold advection behind the front,
as sunshine to counteract the cold advection is stunted by
clouds and showers.

Temperatures will fall below freezing over the higher
elevations and northwest by midnight, and overnight tonight
elsewhere, and into the 20s throughout most of the area by dawn
Monday in ongoing cold advection, lowest over the higher
terrain. In addition, the gusty winds will continue tonight,
even increasing a bit across the ridges.

Showers will be around in the cold advection and ahead of the
approaching large trough tonight. Models and central guidance
suggest coverage will be maximized this evening as rain, and
again overnight/early Tuesday morning as snow, ahead of a pair
of weaker short wave troughs moving northeast across the area,
the second just ahead of the southernmost mid-level low center
of the multi-center elongated low, as it digs into the lower
Ohio Valley tonight.

For the near-term period, it is the second round before dawn
Monday that could prove to be problematic, as temperatures drop
quickly below freezing. This could cause flash freeze conditions
beneath accumulating snow just in time to adversely impact the
morning commute, especially over the higher terrain, where air
and ground temperatures will be lowest. Snow could accumulate
an inch or two over the higher terrain overnight tonight, with a
coating even out across the lowlands by dawn Monday.

One caveat is that surfaces will be wet from the rainfall and
warmer recent mild weather, and just being so early in the
season, so the swiftness of the arrival of these sub-freezing
temperatures will be important. The wet surfaces will initially
encourage snow to melt as it falls, before quickly freezing.

Winter Storm Warnings for the highest terrain of the northeast
mountains of WV, and Winter Weather Advisories for most of the
remainder of the eastern half of the forecast area, begin
tonight for the first snowfall of the season.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Sunday...

Rain will eventually mix with and transition to snow showers
across the lowlands early Monday morning as arctic air plunges
into the region. A flash freeze will be in order as temperatures
drop into the 20s and lower 30s across the area Monday morning.
Accumulations will be dependent on how quickly the temperatures
drop, resulting in a change over to all snow. Surfaces will
also be wet from rainfall and warmer from temperatures being in
the 50s and 60s the previous day, so the swiftness of the
arrival of these sub-freezing temperatures will be important.

High temperatures are forecasted to remain in the 20s to the
mid 30s Monday and it will be rather blustery as west-northwest
winds are projected to gust between 25 and 40 mph. Wind chills
will be in the teens and 20s for most locations during the day.
Single digit wind chills may be felt across the higher elevation
zones of the mountains.

Current guidance suggests a slight uptick in amounts from
previous runs most likely due to temperatures trending slightly
colder. Generally expecting 1 to 4 inches across the lowlands,
with 3 to 6 inches being common across the mountains. Locally
higher amounts above 6 inches could be possible across the
higher elevations above 3,500 feet (i.e. Snowshoe and
Kumbrabow).

Have issued a winter storm warning for NW Pocahontas, SE
Randolph, and eastern Webster counties where the highest
confidence for 4 to 6 inches and higher will be. Elsewhere, a
winter weather advisory has been hoisted for counties of highest
confidence in achieving 2 to 4 inches. Went a bit more liberal
given this is the first snow of the season and it falls on a
work week day. The Monday morning and evening commutes will
likely be impacted with slick roads and heavy snowfall.

GFS, NAM, Euro, and the Canadian models all agree that a 500mb
low that will pass over the area of just south Monday afternoon
into the evening. If this solution holds true then a heavy push
of snowfall will be likely areawide during that timeframe.
As a result, some locations may see some higher amounts than
advertised.

Snow showers will continue Monday night with lake enhanced
moisture at 850mb sustaining the activity, though most of it
will most likely be skewed to the mountains. Cold and windy
conditions will continue with lows dropping into the teens and
20s Monday night. Wind chills in the single and negative single
digits will likely be felt across the higher ridges of the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Snow showers, mostly confined to the northern lowlands and
northeastern mountains, will be tapering off Tuesday morning.
Additional light accumulations will be possible. Gusty winds
will continue leading to some areas of patchy blowing snow
across the usual mountain elevations. Winds will start shifting
more SW`rly during the day allowing for temperatures to climb
into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the lowlands.

After Tuesday, a series of weak shortwaves look to take aim at
the area, but will largely be moisture starved. Winds however,
look to be near advisory criteria across the mountain zones
early Wednesday morning into Thursday. Otherwise, the area
remains mostly dry Wednesday through Friday with a gradual
warming trend taking place late week into the weekend as high
pressure builds in from the south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM Sunday...

Dense fog at PKB should be dissipating at the onset of the
forecast this morning.

Rain showers ahead of a cold front could bring MVFR visibility
in rain showers this morning, before becoming more widely
scattered in the wake of the front this afternoon. There may be
an uptick in rain showers this evening. Any rain showers around
after midnight tonight will chnage to snow showers overnight,
with an uptick in snow showers toward dawn Monday.

In the wake of the cold front, ceilings will lower to MVFR late
this morning, except early this afternoon at EKN. Ceilings will
lower to low MVFR tonight, perhaps even IFR, especially under
snow showers toaward dawn Monday.

Light south to southwest surface flow ahead of the cold front
this morning will increase from the west to southwest behind
the cold front later this morning, with peak gusts in the 20 to
25 kt range this afternoon and tonight. There is the possibility
of an isolated higher gust of 25-30 kts due to higher winds
aloft and possible rain showers mixing those winds down today.
Light southwest flow aloft early this morning will become
moderate southwest for later this morning through this
afternoon, and then light to moderate west to northwest tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lowering ceilings today and
tonight could vary. Timing and impacts of showers could vary.
Snow showers could produce lower ceilings and especially lower
visibility before dawn Monday. Gusty winds will fluctuate.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SUN 11/09/25
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    L    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Monday into Monday night in occasional
snow showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ013-015-016-018-020-024>034-039-040-
     515>521-525.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM