219
FXUS61 KRLX 210624
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
224 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Somewhat cooler today with an isolated shower possible. Strong
cold front approaches this weekend, bringing a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

* A few showers or storms linger today. While chances are very
  low, if a heavier shower was to move over an area that saw
  heavy rain yesterday some minor water issues are possible.

* A cold front will bring a higher chance of showers and
  thunderstorms for Saturday night and Sunday.

* A significantly cooler and drier airmass will arrive behind the
  weekend front, with comfortable daytime temperatures and cool
  nights expected for early next week.

This morning, an inverted surface trough situated over the area is
providing a subtle focus for ascent. This feature, which is a
northward extension of low pressure along the western flank of
Hurricane Erin, is drawing a cool and moist airmass southward into
the forecast area. While model guidance, such as the NBM and NAM,
indicates dew points in the upper 60s, observations are currently
showing dew points several degrees lower, in the mid 60s. This
suggests that afternoon instability may be more limited than
models are depicting. Consequently, the threat for showers and
thunderstorms today should be confined primarily to the
terrain-favored higher elevations of West Virginia during the
period of peak daytime heating. Any activity will be isolated in
nature, and with bullets of probability matched mean HREF
6-hour rainfall totals generally under a half-inch, the risk for
flash flooding is low unless a heavier shower were to get over
a spot that saw locally heavy rainfall yesterday.

Tonight, as the influence of Hurricane Erin wanes, northerly
flow will slacken. This may yield valley fog developing heading
into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Thursday...

Weakening northerly flow will allow for a return to more
seasonable temperatures on Friday, with highs rebounding into
the mid 80s for most of the lower elevations. With drier air in
place, precipitation chances will be very limited although NBM
does continue to advertise some low end PoPs across the higher
terrain; will retain these for now.

Friday night mainly clear skies and light winds allowing for good
radiational cooling. Low temperatures will be comfortable, dipping
into the low to mid 60s.

On Saturday, a shortwave trough will approach from the Great Lakes,
pushing a cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Moisture will begin to
increase ahead of this boundary during the day, though most of the
daylight hours should remain dry with increasing clouds. High
temperatures on Saturday will climb into the mid to upper 80s. By
Saturday evening and into the overnight hours, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage from
west to east as the front enters the forecast area.

The cold front is forecast to slowly cross the region on Sunday.
This will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, representing the best chance for widespread rainfall
during the forecast period. While deep-layer shear appears
relatively weak, there is a window for some storm organization on
Sunday afternoon, contingent on the front`s timing and the degree of
instability that can develop ahead of it. The main threat will be
locally heavy downpours. By Sunday night, the front will have
cleared the area, ushering in a much cooler and drier airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 AM Thursday...

A refreshing, fall-like airmass will settle over the region for the
start of the new week. High pressure building in from the northwest
will bring an end to precipitation chances, with ample sunshine
expected Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will be noticeably
cooler, with daytime highs only reaching the 70s and overnight lows
dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s, especially in areas subject
to cold air drainage.

While the NBM guidance indicates a dry forecast, the synoptic
pattern featuring northwesterly flow across the relatively warm
Great Lakes could provide an upstream moisture connection. This
setup sometimes leads to the development of upslope-enhanced clouds
and isolated light showers across the highest elevations of the West
Virginia mountains. Confidence in this scenario is low, particularly
this far out in the forecast, so a dry forecast will be maintained
for now, but this potential will be monitored in subsequent forecast
cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 AM Thursday...

MVFR/IFR ceilings are slowly oozing southeast out of southeast
Ohio this morning and should eventually arrive at PKB/HTS/CRW.
Elsewhere, a patchwork of 035-050 ceilings coupled with light
northerly flow should help to keep fog formation at bay this
morning. The highest confidence in any patchy fog will be in
sheltered valleys such that those that contain EKN.

Conditions should improve to VFR by late morning for most,
although northerly upslope flow at BKW coupled with recent
rainfall may allow IFR/MVFR conditions to persist.

Winds will be out of the north to northeast around 3 to 8KTS,
becoming light overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions in fog/low stratus may vary
overnight. MVFR low stratus may hang around longer than
expected today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 08/21/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    M    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in river valley fog each morning through Saturday.
IFR possible in rain/thunderstorms with a cold front Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP