047
FXUS65 KRIW 070700
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
100 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers into the early Thursday morning for central
  and northern Wyoming (~20% coverage).

- Warmer and breezy Thursday afternoon with 20-30% coverage for
  scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms for many of
  the same areas.

- Dry and warming trend into the weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

IR depicts a minor shortwave propagating across the northwest
flow aloft to the north. This is bringing some isolated showers
for portions of northern/central parts of the CWA through the
early Thursday morning hours with no impacts expected. The
meridional longwave pattern continues to the north of the state
with the PFJ remaining across southern parts of Canada to
Montana then through the Dakotas and upper Great Lake region.
With the aforementioned northwest flow aloft and sufficient
divergence for Thursday afternoon, a strengthened gradient near
the surface will give way to gusty winds across much of the CWA
seeing gusts as high as 35-40 mph for southern and eastern
counties for the lower elevations outside of the higher
mountains. There will be enough instability for portions of
central to northern Wyoming (~300-400 J/kg) and decent lapse
rates to render some isolated thunderstorm activity. Best
chances (20-30%) will be from south of Cody off the Absaroka
foothills to the Owl Creeks/southern Bighorns. There may be an
isolated storm before sunset for Johnson County as well near
Buffalo, with gusty outflows the main hazard to speak of outside
of the lightning activity. Regardless of the amplitude of the
activity, these will diminish by sunset and towards midnight
Thursday. QPF amounts look to be minimal as these will have
progressive movement with southeast storm motion throughout.

Beyond that, expect clearing and another warm and breezy Friday
afternoon into Saturday as northwest flow continues aloft.
Another subtle shortwave will affect portions of the
north/central parts of the state with minimal impacts once again
Saturday afternoon. Similar conditions as Thursday
afternoon/evening for Saturday, with ridging building back in
from the west for Sunday and into next week. Ample convergence
aloft will yield even warmer temperatures into next work week
with widespread 80s expected east of the Divide/70s to the west.
Upper level higher heights continue to build throughout the week
with the next system to look at not until week`s end into the
following weekend looking to be more potent according to the
more accurate EC for long term solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Light showers have started to move into far NW WY this evening,
and will bring a small chance at KCOD/KWRL and KJAC during the
next few hours. A couple strikes of lightning are noted to the
northwest in MT, so this is possible as this round of showers
moves through overnight. A brief period of clearing skies is
expected Thursday morning, before another round of showers and
thunderstorms bubbles up east of the Divide. With better
possibility of TS during peak heating, have added some TEMPO
thunder groups for KCOD/KWRL and KCPR. There is an outside
chance some thunder may approach KRIW/KLND as well, but
confidence is not currently high they will drift this far
south, so have left out for now. All showers will be dissipating
around 00Z/08 with loss of daytime heating.

Sites west of the Divide will not see showers tomorrow, with
only issue being gusty winds. KJAC will be gusting near 20kts,
KBPI/KPNA gusting 25kts, and KRKS gusting 35 to 40kts through
the afternoon. Winds will relax around sunset Thursday evening.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC
for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Straub