252
FXUS65 KRIW 111046
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
346 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming and dry trend continue through Thursday, with
  temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal and breezy winds.

- Increasing precipitation chances Friday and into the weekend.

- More active pattern beyond the weekend with seasonable
  temperatures and wetter conditions to be had for the longer
  term.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge across much of the
western United States with ample upper level moisture spilling
over it across the CWA as depicted on IR. Partly cloudy to
mainly clear skies for much of the area due to this cloud cover
over the ridge from the Pacific moisture around it. Northwest
flow aloft will continue for Tuesday with the main finger of the
PFJ retreating some to the north and northeast. As such, any
subtle waves down the aforementioned ridge will remain to the
northeast with dry conditions expected. As such, temperatures
will remain on the uptick seeing 5 to 15 degrees warmer than
average through Thursday.

A more zonal pattern out of the west come Wednesday and
Thursday as a deep GOA low pushes south off the Pacific
northwest coast. This will push in the Pacific moisture ahead of
the next system come Friday and over the weekend. Southwest
flow late Thursday into Friday as the L/W trough deepens to the
west with increasing divergence aloft. Precipitation chances
increase as such with western mountain snow and some possible
valley rain, all dependent on temperatures and timing of cold
frontal passage Friday. Timing will be the main affect on the
system, as HREF models indicate quite a bit of low confidence
and consistency with it. As such, snow accumulations are up and
down with each model run making the NBM not have consistent
outputs. Regardless, this has trended to a west of the Divide
system not seeing much of an impact to the east outside of
falling temperatures and some windier conditions. Eastern
Sweetwater to Casper, with some snow for Casper Mountain
possible dependent on how far south and strong the
aforementioned trough deepens. Stay tuned for updated forecasts
in the coming days.

Beyond the weekend for the long term forecast, expect a more
active pattern to be had going into next week. Trough-ridge
couplets are depicted in many of the longer term models with
temperatures back to more seasonable with a wetter pattern for
much of next week starting the second half of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue through 12Z Wednesday with only
areas of mid to high level clouds. Wind will remain breezy at
KCPR until this evening. Most terminals will have wind increase
late Tuesday morning through the afternoon hours. In general
wind will be about around 10 knots. Higher gusts of 20-25 knots
will occur at KRKS.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Hattings