Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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179 FXUS65 KRIW 221037 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 337 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few snow showers in northwestern Wyoming, remaining dry and mild east of the Divide. - A Pacific system will bring some snow Saturday and Sunday, with the highest amounts in the northwestern mountains. - Seasonable and unsettled weather continues into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 Things look to be turning more active over the next week or so. At this time, a weak shortwave is passing over northwestern Wyoming with some snow showers, mainly in the mountains. Moisture is not that deep with this initial system, so any accumulations will be lighter. Most should end in the early afternoon and then there should be around a 12 to 18 hour period of mainly dry weather. Meanwhile, areas east of the Divide should have a nice late fall day with a continuation of above normal temperatures. There will be a gusty wind near Casper, but wind should be somewhat less than recent days as shortwave ridging passes over the area. A somewhat more potent system, a piece of the intense low off of the Pacific coast, will move toward the area following this. Guidance has slowed down the arrival of the system, with dry weather expected through sunrise Saturday and the steadier precipitation holding off until the afternoon. At this point, this does not look like a major storm. Most guidance shows the system splitting, limiting amounts somewhat. Through most of Saturday night, precipitation should be largely restricted to areas west of the Divide. Things may change a bit on Sunday as the trough moves through. Some guidance is showing some snow showing up roughly from Sweetwater County toward Casper with some energy from a jet streak moving overhead. As for amounts, the highest amounts will likely fall over the usual suspects, mainly the Tetons and southwestern Yellowstone Park, where there is anywhere from a 1 in 2 to a 4 out of 5 chance of 6 inches or more. The chance of over a foot is less than 1 out of 4 though. As for the western valleys, the chance for 4 inches or more is no more than 1 out of 5. The precipitation may even start as rain in the valleys with 700 millibar temperatures between minus 2C and minus 4C initially that could put snow levels from 6500 to 7500 feet. Any potential highlights would more than likely be advisories and probably restricted the northwestern mountains. Sweetwater County has a around a 1 out of 2 chance of an inch or more. Casper has a small chance, but this is higher than before and amounts may rise if this trend continues. As for other details, areas east of the Divide will have a dry and mild day on Saturday. The main concern on Saturday here will be another day of increased wind around Casper, with probabilistic guidance showing a 1 out of 2 chance of wind gusts of 40 mph or more. The chance of gusts to 60 mph are low. So, no wind highlights are expected but Saturday may be windy enough to cause a couple of problems with high profile vehicles. Temperatures then fall back to near normal levels behind the front on Sunday. Shortwave ridging should then bring mainly dry weather for Monday. The next potential weather maker then moves in for Tuesday into Wednesday. Models have less agreement with this one with some keeping the energy south and a few possibly having a brief period of northerly upslope flow that could bring some snow east of the Divide. An Alberta Clipper may then bring some light snow for the end of next week. Temperatures will be cooler than today and Saturday, but with the flow mainly zonal and Pacific, temperatures will average near normal and not below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 335 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at terminals through the TAF period. Snow is now expected to stay well to the north of the KJAC terminal, so have removed the PROB30 group from the forecast. Light winds will also continue for most terminals, except KCPR, where a gusty southwest wind occurs through the afternoon hours. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...LaVoie/Myers