809
FXUS65 KRIW 040341
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
941 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It remains cool and unsettled through Thursday.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the rest
  of the workweek.

- Warming trend for the rest of the week, with 80s returning by
  Saturday. Becoming quite hot by Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

A shortwave trough continues to push through today, and brought a
period of showers, mountain snow showers, and low clouds to many
portions of central WY through the early morning. These showers have
become less numerous through the second half of the morning, and
some slight clearing and scattering out of the lower decks is
evident on satellite as of 1100L. This clearing is expected to lead
to convective development by mid afternoon along and east of the
Divide. CAMs remain on track with the afternoon convection. CAPE is
minimal, so convection should remain weak. A few stronger storms
could produce isolated small hail, and with ample shear, would not
be surprised to see a cold air or two funnel, if things set up
right.

With the cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures will remain on
the cooler side today, with highs still expected to top out in the
upper-50s to mid-60s. Tomorrow, high pressure will start to build,
which will start us on a gradual warming trend into the weekend. The
forecast remains consistent with afternoon convection every
afternoon through at least the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

It remains cool today, in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Highs
will peak in the upper 50s to upper 60s across the area. Showers,
and possibly a few thunderstorms, remain possible through today as
well. The best chances (40% to 80%) occur along and east of the
Continental Divide, with lesser chances around western and northern
Wyoming. Sweetwater County would have the lowest chances today. Rain
(and high elevation snow) chances continue into tonight, mainly over
the northern half of the area.

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the rest of
the workweek as multiple shortwaves pass over the state. Depending
on exact location and strength of these waves, locations of favored
rain chances change each day. Overall, none of the days looked
favored for any strong storms. EFI/SOT is not indicating anything
noteworthy through the rest of the week also. There will be a bit of
a warming trend through the rest of the week, with 80s returning for
many locations Saturday.

Long range models are showing potential for high pressure for the
start of next week, continuing the warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions will persist through most of the TAF
period. An area of light rain is likely (70%) to move through the
Bighorn Basin early Wednesday morning, but conditions should only
drop to low VFR at KWRL and to a lesser extent KCOD. There is a low
chance (30%) of light rain at KJAC for a few hours to begin the TAF
period. Very isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will develop
Wednesday afternoon, with chances quite low across the area only
about 5-15%. The better chances (30-50%) will be in the mountains.
A weak weather system will bring scattered rain showers through
the area Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.

In general wind will remain below 10 knots for the next 24 hours.
The two terminals that will have wind stronger than 10 knots
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night are KCPR and KRKS. Gusts
around 20 knots will be possible at those terminals, especially
Wednesday evening. Occasional mountain obscuration will occur
at times, coinciding with the passing of rain showers.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hensley
DISCUSSION...Wittmann
AVIATION...Rowe