618
FXUS65 KRIW 021021
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
321 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than average temperatures continue through the next
  week with mainly dry conditions.

- Minimal snow chances (10-20%) for northern parts of the CWA,
  especially the Bighorns with a weak system with the main
  impact of increased clouds and temperatures not quite as warm
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Upper level ridging continues to dominate and will for the next
7 days. However, the ridge does break down some as a shortwave
propagates down passing to the northeast Monday afternoon and
into the overnight hours. As a result, some snow showers likely
across northern parts of the CWA after sunset to include
Yellowstone, northern Absarokas, and in particular the northern
Bighorns that will be closer to the PVA anomaly over the
northern Great Plains and better moisture content. However,
accumulations will still be minimal with 1 to 2 inches expected
for the highest of the elevations with no impacts to the passes.
The main impact will be a more widespread increase to the winds
with the passing system and associated weak frontal boundary as
it passes through the afternoon. Highest wind speeds for the
Cody Foothills due to funneling of the westerly winds along with
the wind corridor of Sweetwater to Natrona Counties and further
north to Buffalo and Johnson County. 30 to 40 mph will be had
for these areas until after FROPA and will quickly diminish
before sunset Monday evening. The only other minor impact will
be increased cloud cover and temperatures being not as warm by a
few degrees for Tuesday afternoon highs but still above average
for this time of year.

Once the aforementioned system passes and clouds clear later on
Tuesday, expect the upper level ridge to build in once again
with stronger convergence aloft shifting more east and over the
Rockies. This will give way to dry conditions through the end of
the work week and the weekend with temperatures up to 10 to 20
degrees warmer than average for this time of year, higher east
of the Divide.

Beyond the weekend, longer term model solutions do bring in a
more potent and widespread system as the PFJ dips south across
the state and points south. This will open the Pacific northwest
moisture back in to play with the westerly flow aloft. With this
regime, expect snow for western mountains and possibly valleys,
not reaching to the east outside of the Bighorns. However, the
latest runs have dipped it a bit further south that could bring
a more south of westerly flow that could open it up more to
southeastern zones. Time will tell, but cooler more seasonable
temperatures will be had for next week going forward into the
middle portions of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Skies will
become mostly clear around 18Z Monday before another high cloud
deck moves into western Wyoming after 00Z. A few snow showers
may move toward the Bighorn Range after 06Z Tuesday but should
stay away from TAF sites through 12Z Tuesday. There will be a
gusty breeze in the favored locations, mainly in vicinity of
KCOD this morning and in vicinity of KCPR and KRKS this
afternoon.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Hattings