732
FNUS75 KREV 222216
FWSREV

Spot Forecast for Valentine Reserve Pile Burn Nov 2024...Mammoth Lakes Fire Protection District
National Weather Service Reno NV
216 PM PST Fri Nov 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 PST on November 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National
Weather Service in Reno.

.DISCUSSION...

* 40-50% chances for rain showers are expected on Saturday morning
  with gusty southwesterly winds as well. Rain transitions to snow
  by around 1300-1400 PST with precipitation chances increasing to
  70-75% by 1600 PST.

* A Winter Storm Warning continues through Saturday night with a
  potential of 4-8 inches of snowfall possible. A Winter Storm
  Watch is also in effect from late Sunday through Tuesday
  Afternoon.

* Along with multiple rounds of precipitation, gusty winds are
  expected going into the beginning of next week ahead of drier
  conditions by Thanksgiving.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the late
                    morning and early afternoon, then chance of
                    snow late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........39-41 at ignition...Max 41.
RH..................88-89% at ignition...Min 84-85%.
20-Foot Winds.......Winds southwest at 30 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 20-30 mph
                    with gusts to around 45 mph decreasing to 16-21
                    mph gusting to around 30 mph by 1000 PST.
LAL.................1.
Chc Wetting Rain....90% decreasing to 35% in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......2400-2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 35-40 mph.
Ventilation.........Very good.
Haines Index........2 at ignition...max 2.

TIME (PST)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM
Sky (%).........81     67     67     64
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   SNOW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............90     40     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............41     41     39     37
RH..............89     91     89     90
20 ft wind......SW 30  SW 21  SW 21  SW 17
20 ft wind gust.45     30     30     25
Mx ht msl (kft).2.5    2.8    2.8    2.6
Transport wind..SW 35  SW 40  SW 40  SW 35
Haines index....2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..74     94     94     75
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy. Snow likely early in the evening, then
                    snow late in the evening. Snow likely
                    overnight.
Temperature.........Min 27-29.
RH..................Max 83-84%.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 13-18 mph with gusts to around
                    25-30 mph in the evening, then increasing to
                    around 20 mph gusting to 30 mph by 1900 PST.
LAL.................1.
Chc Wetting Rain....60%.
Mixing Height.......1000-1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 25-30 mph.
Ventilation.........Good to marginal.
Haines Index........2.


TIME (PST)      4 PM      7 PM      10 PM     1 AM
Sky (%).........81        84        80        80
Weather cov.....LIKELY    DEFNTE    LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....SNOW      SNOW      SNOW      SNOW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............60        60        60        60
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............36        35        33        32
RH..............84        84        84        83
20 FT wind......SW 13G20  SW 18G30  SW 20G30  SW 18G30
Mx ht msl (kft).1.9       1.2       0.9       1.0
Transport wind..SW 30     SW 25     SW 25     SW 25
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..45        26        18        20
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow.
Temperature.........Max 31-32.
RH..................Min 72-74%.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 8-13 mph decreasing to 7-10 mph
                    in the afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Chc Wetting Rain....30% decreasing to 20% in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......2000-3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15-20 mph.
Ventilation.........Marginal to good.
Haines Index........2.

TIME (PST)      4 AM      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM
Sky (%).........66        66        57        57
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....SNOW      SNOW      SNOW      SNOW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30        30        20        20
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............31        28        32        31
RH..............83        84        78        75
20 FT wind......SW 13G20  SW 9G15   SW 8G15   SW 10G15
Mx ht msl (kft).1.0       2.3       2.6       3.0
Transport wind..SW 20     SW 15     SW 20     SW 20
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19        34        47        48
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR

$$
Forecaster...Chyba
Requested by...Mike McCarthy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427234.0/REV
.DELDT 11/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mmccarthy@mlfd.ca.gov