119
FXUS65 KREV 110905
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
205 AM PDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* One more day of mild spring-like conditions. A weak system
  passing to our south will bring cloudy skies, slight chances of
  snow showers along the crests in Mono County, and increasing
  winds by the afternoon.

* A cold winter storm will bring widespread heavy snowfall to the
  Sierra, and strong gusty winds and rain/snow showers to lower
  elevations Wednesday through Thursday.

* Additional storms are likely for Friday, as well as the end of
  the weekend into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Today will be the last day of mild spring-like weather before
  arrival of a cold winter storm on Wednesday. West to southwest
  winds will pick up through the day, which will help scour out
  the haze in the valleys. There still remains a slight 20-25%
  chance for light snow showers along the higher crests in Mono
  County. Accumulations will be light, generally a trace to at
  most a few inches.

* A much anticipated cold winter storm will begin to impact the
  region on Wednesday, continuing into Thursday. There are no
  significant changes to the current forecast as far as timing of
  the precipitation and snow amounts. Precipitation will begin in
  northeast CA around midnight Tuesday, then into the Tahoe Basin
  around 3-5am, then into Mono County by around 7-8am. The heavier
  round of snowfall that is associated with the dynamic cold front
  then starts in the early afternoon in northeast CA, late
  afternoon to early evening in the Tahoe area, then evening for
  Mono County. Please see the avalanche section below for more
  details in snow levels, snow liquid ratios, and rates.

* Snow: For northeast CA, elevations below 5,000` can see 0-3",
  from 5,000-6,000` will have around 4-10", and above 6,000` will
  have between 1-2 feet. For the Tahoe Basin, elevations below
  7,000` will have between 8-24" (8" in lowest elevations such as
  Truckee and Markleeville). Above 7,000` can expect 2-3`, with
  locally higher amounts over the passes. For Mono County,
  elevations below 8,000` can see between 6-12" including along
  US-395. Elevations above 8,000` will have between 1-3` (28-36"
  at Mammoth Mountain, 9-12" along the White Mountains). As for
  western NV, given the orientation of the upper level flow we`re
  not expecting to see a whole lot of accumulation, with only a
  dusting up to 4" above 5,500`. Below 5,500` including the Reno,
  Carson, Minden, and Fallon, there`s an 80-95% chance of less
  than 1" throughout this whole storm. Mountainous communities
  like Virginia City and its Highlands will see 2-4".

* Wind: The stronger winds with this system will arrive early
  Wednesday morning, and will strengthen as the day progresses.
  For western NV, peak winds still look to be around 2-5pm, with a
  60-70% chance of exceeding 60 mph, while wind prone areas along
  US-395 and US-95 could see gusts up to 70+ mph. As such, a High
  Wind Watch is still in effect for Mineral and southern Lyon
  counties. Up in higher elevation communities such as Truckee
  and South Lake Tahoe there`s a 60% chance of exceeding 45 mph.
  700 mb winds out of the south to southwest will max out around
  60-65 kt, which means Sierra ridges could see peak gusts
  Wednesday of 100+ mph.

* We`ll see a continued active pattern into early next week.
  Additional precipitation will make its way into the Sierra on
  Friday. We get a short break on Saturday before another system
  impacts the area on Sunday into Monday. -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue through 12Z Wednesday. Slantwise VIS
concerns are still likely this morning due to lighter winds in
western NV valleys. Periods of MVFR are possible after 09Z Wed
over the Sierra, especially for KTRK to KTVL with a 30% chance of
showers. Conditions deteriorate tomorrow after 12Z as the
potential for valley rain and mountain snow increases with periods
of MVFR to IFR likely, especially at mountain sites. Plus cloud
obscurations will be a concern starting this evening.

Winds start light and VRB this morning, increasing after 21Z with
gusts up to 20 kts from the south and southwest. Winds subside in
the early evening around 02Z. However, winds aloft will increase
after 06Z. Therefore, expect turbulence and LLWS to increase
overnight. Strong and gusty winds are expected by Wednesday
afternoon areawide.

-HC


&&

.AVALANCHE...

No significant changes to the current forecast. Impacts from
heavy snow and gusty winds expected across all avalanche center
terrain starting Wednesday and continuing through Thursday.

* SWE, SLR, and Snow Levels: 1-3" SWE expected for all avalanche
  centers Wednesday through Thursday. SLRs at the storm`s onset
  will be between 10-12:1 and then rise to 15-16:1 by late
  Wednesday night. Snow levels will initially start around 5500 ft
  and then rise to 6000 ft by Wednesday afternoon (around 500`
  higher in Mono County). They drop below 4500 ft by sunset
  Wednesday and stay there through the remainder of the system.

* Snowfall totals and rates: 1-3 feet possible along the highest
  peaks with the most intense period between 5pm and 11pm Wednesday.
  The strongest snowfall rates will coincide with that peak
  intensity period with rates between 2-3"/hr with up to 4"/hr at
  times.

* Ridge top gusts: South to southwest with the strongest gusts
  from Wednesday afternoon until around sunset where gusts will
  top out around 100+ mph. These winds will likely impact all
  three avalanche centers. -Giralte/McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
     Thursday NVZ002.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     NVZ001.

CA...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT
     Thursday CAZ071-072.

     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 PM PDT Thursday
     CAZ073.

&&

$$