Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
707 FXUS65 KREV 291941 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1241 PM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Hot temperatures continue with isolated showers and storms possible today from the Tahoe Basin into NE California. * Isolated to scattered storms are likely each afternoon Monday through Wednesday in northeast California and northwest Nevada. Dry lightning possible for NE CA and NW NV Monday-Tuesday. * Typical summer heat is favored for the holiday weekend with lingering chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Our above average temperatures will persist through at least Tuesday with afternoon highs reaching into the mid and upper 90s across western Nevada with the 100 degree mark possible for hotter basin areas such as Gerlach, Fallon, and Lovelock. Expect moderate heat impacts for most areas across W.Nevada to continue. A slow moving closed low will begin to drift inland early week and will provide increasing chances of afternoon showers and thunderstormS. Areas across northern Lassen and far northern Washoe county will see 15-20% chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday, some of which could produce dry lightning due to fast storm motions, high bases, and dry subcloud layers. This in turn would set up an environment conducive for strong and gusty outflow winds in these areas. Tuesday will likely see the best aerial coverage for showers and storms as the diffluent region of the low drifts across NE CA and NW NV. A mix of wet and dry storms is most likely for Tuesday with isolated dry storms across northern Washoe County as deeper moisture filters across northern CA. Lingering showers and storms will be possible each afternoon through Thursday (10-20% chance) before the upper low departs the region. Expect temperatures to cool back to near early July averages for the holiday weekend with breezy afternoon winds returning mid-week. Fuentes && .AVIATION... The primary weather concerns today will be the potential for heat- induced density altitude issues, and low odds (10-15% chance) of showers and thunderstorms from the Tahoe Basin northward. Density altitude issues will be most likely in western Nevada -- especially at KNFL-KLOL -- where daytime highs flirt with 100F. KTRK, KTVL, and KSVE will be most susceptible to thunderstorm impacts this afternoon, but chances of a thunderstorm within 10 miles of either terminal is only 10-15%. Otherwise, VFR conditions and breezy afternoon winds prevail elsewhere. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon across NE California and N Washoe County. -Salas/Fuentes && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated dry lightning and strong, erratic outflow winds with gusts of 50+ mph are possible across far northern Lassen County and far northern Washoe County Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Monday will see the potential for dry strikes due to high storm bases and fast storm motions. Coverage of storms likely expands farther south and east into the Sierra and western Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, but odds are only around 15-20%. These storms will be a mix of wet and dry storms with the best odds for dry strikes expected along portions of northern Washoe county on Tuesday. Areas of localized critical conditions are possible by mid-week as breezy an dry conditions return mid-week. -Salas/Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$