217
FXUS65 KREV 150955
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
154 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* One more mild and breezy day today before a major winter storm
  arrives in the Sierra. Complete any travel across the Sierra by
  early this afternoon.

* Snow reaches the Sierra this evening, with the highest snowfall
  rates overnight through Monday evening, then again Tuesday
  afternoon-evening. Multiple feet of snow expected across the
  Sierra.

* Snow impacts could reach western NV foothills as soon as Monday,
  with snow most likely down to valley floors Tuesday afternoon
  and evening. Cold weather and lingering snow impacts continue
  through much of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A significant winter storm will bring heavy Sierra snowfall from
tonight through early Wednesday, with lingering snow showers into
Thursday. The storm is still looking more like two-stage event,
with the first from late tonight through Monday evening, followed
by a stronger, colder second wave from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. However, over the Sierra crest, moist upslope
flow between these two systems will likely keep snow going with no
real break in travel impacts.

Main Forecast Updates:

* For Monday, foothills around the main cities of far western NV
  could see more snow on Monday, although confidence in
  accumulations and snow levels remains on the lower side.

1st Stage: Tonight - Monday Evening:

* If you plan to travel across the Sierra, it would be best to
  reach your destination by early this afternoon to allow some
  buffer before conditions worsen. Snow is expected to arrive in
  northeast CA this evening and then increase across the Sierra
  overnight, with the heaviest rates (1-2/hr) from daybreak to
  early evening Monday. Overall snow levels start near 6000 feet
  tonight and drop below 5000 feet by Monday evening, although
  snow levels could dip lower than 5000 feet at times during the
  day Monday with heavier precip bands.

* Expect major travel impacts for Sierra passes, including chain
  controls and possible lengthy road closures. The higher
  elevations around Tahoe southward to Mono County crest could see
  1-2 feet of snow during this first stage, with 5-10" down to
  lake level, and up to 12" for Mono County communities west of
  US-395 (Mammoth/June Lakes).

* One particular wild card for Monday is where the heaviest
  precip spills over from the Sierra into northwest or far western
  NV. Some of the latest guidance continues favoring more of this
  snow to hit northern Washoe County, where Winter Weather
  Advisories are now in effect. However, other guidance sources
  are targeting the main urban areas from Reno southward to
  Virginia City/Carson/Minden for a longer duration of steady
  precip. Currently we`re anticipating 1-3 inches of snow on
  Monday for areas above 5000 feet, with mainly rain down to the
  valley floors, but if the more aggressive scenario plays out,
  the foothills could see at least double this amount, with light
  slushy snow accumulations even down to some valleys.

2nd Stage: Tuesday - Wednesday Morning:

* Snowfall rates diminish late Monday night into early Tuesday,
  then increase again as the stronger, colder wave moves through
  from late Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning. As colder air
  arrives, the snowfall character will become lighter and more
  powdery, raising the risk of blowing snow and periods of
  whiteout conditions, with gusts up to 50 mph in Sierra
  communities and over 100 mph along the ridgetops.

* In the Sierra, snowfall rates may reach 2-3 inches per hour
  during the heavier bands Tuesday afternoon and night. Rates will
  begin to taper off Wednesday morning, but by the end of the
  storm, event totals could reach 3-5 feet above 7000 feet in the
  Sierra, and 2-3 feet for the Tahoe Basin and Mono County
  communities west of US-395. Areas west of US-395 in Lassen
  County could see around 6-12 inches, with up to 2 feet in
  higher passes for the full event.

* For the western NV valleys, gusty winds of 35-45 mph will mix
  down Tuesday morning which may momentarily raise snow levels
  above valley floors, although colder air will also filter in by
  this time. The arrival of heavier snow bands by late morning and
  midday leads to higher confidence for snow and travel impacts
  during the Tuesday evening commute with lingering impacts into
  Wednesday. West Central NV will also have its best potential for
  snow and slick travel conditions late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
  Early projections of snowfall for the main urban areas are 2-6",
  with up to 2" farther east to the US-95 corridor, while foothill
  sites could end up with 6-12". If convective snow bands factor
  into this event, snow totals in localized sites could increase
  by several inches.

After the main storm departs early Wednesday, additional weaker
waves of energy moving through the colder northwest flow aloft
keep the threat of scattered snow showers going through Thursday.
Even though snowfall rates will be less intense compared to
Monday-Tuesday, any new snow that falls will readily stick to most
surfaces and produce slick and icy conditions, especially at
night. A break in storm activity appears to then emerge Friday
through next weekend, although longer range guidance hints at
another colder storm during the final week of February. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions prevail across the region with a brief clearing
  through early this afternoon, then cloud cover builds in later
  today ahead of a major winter storm.

* Lingering FL100 wind gusts up to 50 kt through this morning will
  produce areas of turbulence and LLWS mainly near the Sierra
  terminals. Surface wind gusts up to 20-25 kt this afternoon at
  all terminals before the main storm arrives tonight.

* A major winter storm moves into the Sierra tonight through
  midweek. Widespread aviation impacts for all terminals, with
  feet of snowfall for Sierra terminals along with periods of
  whiteout conditions from blowing snow, especially Tuesday.

* Western Nevada terminals could see a mix of rain and snow on
  Monday, but less than 10% chance for 1" of snow accumulation.
  Winds and LLWS increase Monday night-Tuesday, with gusts 30-40
  kt at times. A rain-snow mix returns Tuesday morning before
  quickly becoming all snow. Best potential for runway snow
  accumulations Tuesday afternoon and evening, with a 30-50%
  chance for at least 4".

MJD

&&

.AVALANCHE...

A major multi-day winter storm impacts all avalanche center
terrain starting tonight, with the most widespread and heaviest
snow projected from Monday-Tuesday night.

* No significant changes to the snow timing, characteristics, and
  amounts, or ridge top wind speeds.

* Timing/snowfall rates: Snow pushes into SACs terrain by late
  this evening, then reaches BAC/ESAC areas by early Monday
  morning. Snow becomes mainly continuous for all areas, with
  rates of 1-2"/hour at times through Monday afternoon, increasing
  to potentially 2-3"/hour for portions of Tuesday-Tuesday night.

* SWE/Snowfall totals: SWE of 2-4", locally higher up to 5" across
  all avalanche center terrain. Storm total snowfall from tonight-
  Wednesday morning projected to range from 2-4 feet, with
  pockets of 5 or more feet for higher peaks.

* Snow-Liquid Ratios (SLR): Higher density SLRs of 8-11:1 at the
  storm`s onset through Monday morning, then a slow transition to
  a lesser density of 10-13:1 later Monday, eventually to a more
  powdery 14-16:1 as the colder air arrives from Tuesday morning
  onward.

* Ridge Top Winds: South winds increase tonight and Monday with
  gusts 50-65 mph. The main push of winds arrives Monday evening and
  continues through Tuesday night, with periods of peak gusts
  100+ mph mainly from the southwest.

MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 10 PM PST Wednesday
     NVZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Tuesday
     NVZ005.

CA...Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 10 PM PST Wednesday
     CAZ071>073.

&&

$$