775
FXUS65 KREV 111955
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1255 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Near record high temperatures will produce moderate HeatRisk
  across lower valleys today and Tuesday.

* Gusty winds and low shower chances are anticipated Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Strong outflow winds possible Tuesday afternoon.

* Dry weather with above average temperatures expected later this
  week followed by some cooling for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Southwest US high pressure will support another hot day today
(with similar temperatures again Tuesday) as daytime highs reach
the upper 70s to 80s for Sierra communities and upper 80s to near
95 in lower valleys. Skies will be mostly sunny with afternoon
cumulus along higher terrain and into west central NV, and a
broad swath of thinner cirrus regionwide.

High pressure will translate eastward after today, allowing an
eastern Pacific low to approach and eventually traverse the
Pacific Northwest by Thursday. Winds begin to increase Tuesday in
response to the approaching low with strongest SW/W gusts of
35-45 mph overspreading Lassen/the Surprise Valley and far N
Washoe County in the afternoon. Be prepared for wind impacts to
travel and recreation in this area, including choppy lake waters.
Elsewhere, afternoon wind gusts will vary in the 25-35 mph range.

A caveat to this is the potential for locally strong outflow winds
from Mono County into western NV where latest CAM guidance depicts
elevated convection in the late afternoon and evening. This
scenario does merit some attention as forecast soundings reveal
a favorable environment for strong outflow winds (gusts 40+ mph),
characterized by a deep, well-mixed subcloud layer beneath shallow
mid-level moisture--which, more broadly, is downstream of a
secondary, weak low offshore of southern CA. Limited depth of
convection suggests that lightning is unlikely, but an isolated
strike or two may accompany taller updrafts.

Wednesday will offer more widespread gusty winds with a slight
uptick in shower activity as the eastern Pacific low moves inland.
The timing of the low`s passage does introduce some uncertainty in
how strong winds will become Wednesday (weaker winds with a faster
progression, stronger with a slower progression), but be prepared
for renewed wind impacts through the afternoon in any case.
Wednesday has also trended a bit drier with best shower chances
(10-20%) in the eastern Sierra and near the OR border. Warmer and
drier weather is favored to end the week, with perhaps another
cooldown over the weekend.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread VFR conditions and typical afternoon breezes (SW/W
gusts of 20-25 kts) will prevail today. Similar conditions in
store for Tuesday, with the exception of stronger FL100 winds from
Tahoe northward and a slight uptick in surface gusts during the
afternoon.

-Salas

&&

.CLIMATE...

Both climate sites set new record high temperatures yesterday for
the May 10th date. The Reno-Tahoe International Airport recorded
a high of 92 F, breaking the old record of 88 F set in 1934.
South Lake Tahoe, CA recorded a high of 79 F, breaking the old
record of 75 F set in 2025.

Current record high temperatures for Reno, NV that have potential to
be broken or tied (Today & Tuesday):

May 11: 90F, set in 2001 and 2013.
May 12: 89F, set in 1959 and 2013.

Current record high temperatures for South Lake Tahoe, CA that have
potential to be broken or tied (Today & Tuesday):

May 11: 78F, set in 2013.
May 12: 79F, set in 1988 and 1996.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Tuesday CAZ071.

&&

$$