454
FXUS65 KREV 052034
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
134 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Shower and thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon through
  Saturday mainly in the Sierra from Tahoe southward through Mono
  County, and parts of western NV south of Highway 50.

* Temperatures will warm up to the mid 90s with moderate HeatRisk
  in lower elevations, and above 80 near the Sierra this weekend
  and early next week.

* Thunderstorm chances may increase Sunday and extend into western
  NV and northeast CA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Cumulus clouds have developed farther north along the Sierra and
into northeast CA so far today and a rain shower managed to form
near Peavine Mountain around noon. A few more showers and
possibly a stray lightning strike could develop around the Reno
vicinity through mid-afternoon with outflow interactions.
Although, farther north into northeast CA, stronger mid level
capping and limited forcing should keep the risk of t-storm
formation low.

Farther south along the Sierra in a similar fashion as yesterday,
better forcing should again lead to scattered showers with
embedded thunder favoring Mono, Alpine, Southern Mineral-Lyon
counties, but a few cells could form off outflows near the Tahoe
Basin, Carson City and Douglas counties. Primary impacts will be
outflow gusts of 35-45 mph, occasional lightning, and pockets of
heavy rainfall and small hail with stronger and slow moving
storms, or where redevelopment occurs along terrain features.
Friday and Saturday look to have similar storm chances, although
more activity looks to stay closer to the Sierra.

For Sunday, the upper low off the CA coast is showing signs of
ejecting northward as a negative-tilted trough. If this trough
track extends far enough into eastern CA-western NV, it could
produce more forcing for afternoon-evening thunderstorms.
Instability should already be in place with warmer temperatures
while southeast flow aloft will pull in some added moisture. For
now, we will introduce slight chances for storms into portions of
northeast CA and western NV, including Reno and Carson City.
Storms that develop on Sunday may be more organized and produce
stronger outflow gusts (45+ mph), with increased lightning risk
outside precip cores from faster moving cells.

By early next week, instability with this trough could linger with
isolated shower/thunder chances for areas near the OR border,
while the remainder of the region looks to be dry. Temperatures
will be quite warm with highs climbing to the lower-mid 90s
across most lower elevations from Saturday-Tuesday, resulting in
widespread moderate HeatRisk.

As next week progresses, a more zonal flow aloft returns with weak
dry shortwave passages across the northwest US. This should lead
to some cooling later in the week, but also accompanied by some
increase in afternoon winds. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

For KMMH, the risk for showers and thunderstorms continues each
afternoon through Saturday (about 20-30% chance), mainly between
21Z-02Z. Brief terrain obscurations and lower CIGS/VIS in rain, a
few lightning strikes and outflow gusts to 30 kt are the main
impacts from these storms. Isolated showers/thunder could also
affect KTVL although probability is lower, near 15% mainly between
23-03Z. For the other main terminals, thunderstorm potential is
10% or less each afternoon through Saturday, although a couple of
brief stray showers could pop up within sight of these terminals.

KTRK may see brief IFR/LIFR conditions with patchy early AM fog
mainly between 11-14Z for the next couple of mornings. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$