Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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098
FXUS65 KREV 172010
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
110 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and mild weather will prevail over the weekend with breezy
  winds Sunday afternoon.

* Showers are possible in the eastern Sierra south of Tahoe on
  Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, dry conditions persist into
  next week.

* Unsettled weather may return late next week into next weekend
  with impacts to travel and recreation possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will once again provide us with another warm and sunny
day today with light winds. Temperatures will slowly increase each
day and eventually peak in the mid 70`s across lower valleys and mid
60`s in the Sierra on Sunday before they start to fall back to near
average Monday onward.

Our next system looks to move in Sunday, when an upper level trough
scrapes by to our north. The track of this system has shifted
further north in the last 24 hours and I would expect it to remain
that way through Sunday. Therefore, wind will be the primary hazard
out of this system, as the precip will be kept further north out of
our CWA. Gusts of 30-35 mph are expected Sunday afternoon from
Pyramid Lake northward to the OR/NV border. Otherwise up to 25-30
mph elsewhere.

After Sunday, high pressure moves in once again, keeping our area
mostly sunny and dry through Friday. There may be an exception to
that on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. A cut-off low hovering off
the CA coast will pass just to our south those days, and may spark a
low-end chance for a few showers along the eastern Sierra in that
usual spot of Mono and Mineral counties, although exact details on
that are still fairly uncertain. Temperatures next week will be near
average, around 70 across western NV and mid 60`s in Sierra
communities. However, this very pleasant fall weather looks to be
put on hold at the end of this upcoming week.

There are strong signals for an impactful storm to bear down on our
region starting some time between Friday night and Saturday night.
EC and GFS ensembles, as well as many other ensembles, are
consistently showing a multi-day atmospheric river type of storm
next weekend. GFS and EC IVT plumes have consistently shown a signal
for moisture moving in around that timeframe of the 24th-25th.
Additionally, long range models and ensembles unanimously show a
fairly deep, cold trough across the PacNW next weekend. Now, I`ll
add that while it is tempting to bite the bait that the models are
giving us, we have to take that data with a grain of salt. There is
still a considerable amount of uncertainty in the forecast,
considering it`s a transition season and it`s still 7-8 days out.
We`ll monitor this storm as time progresses, but just be aware of
the potential if you have any outdoor plans or travel plans next
weekend, especially over Sierra passes.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

10% chance to see patchy, shallow FZFG at KTRK overnight tonight
between 07-17z, otherwise VFR conditions for remaining eastern
Sierra and western NV terminals today. Winds overall will be light
and variable this afternoon for all terminals. Winds increase Sunday
with gusts up to 25-30 kt expected in the afternoon.

-Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$