871
FXUS65 KREV 061921
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1221 PM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue into the weekend
  and peak Sunday and Monday.

* Very warm this weekend through Tuesday with moderate HeatRisk
  for lowest valleys of northeast CA and western NV.

* Slightly cooler but more typical June warmth favored for mid-
  late next week, with increasing winds possibly impacting fire,
  aviation, and recreation interests.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A slow-evolving weather pattern will maintain daily chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms through early next week. For
today and Saturday, the best chances (20-30%) favor the Sierra
and adjacent parts of far western NV south of US-50 but as we`ve
seen recently, an outflow interaction with favored terrain
features could generate isolated cells farther north so we`ll
maintain a 10-20% chance for the Reno-Carson-Tahoe areas. The odds
of a repeat impactful rain event for Reno are lower today though,
with more northeast flow over western NV and drier mid levels/fewer
cumulus forming near and north of Reno compared to yesterday. As
we get to Saturday, the high resolution guidance is more favorable
with afternoon cumulus buildups extending farther north into
northeast CA, so outflow-induced showers and storms have a
slightly higher chance of affecting the main communities around
Tahoe and far western NV. The main impacts would again be locally
heavy rainfall, outflow gusts of 45+ mph in lower elevations and
35-45 mph near the Sierra, occasional-frequent lightning and small
hail.

For Sunday-Monday, the upper low off the CA coast is projected to
move inland as a negative-tilt trough, which would provide more
forcing farther north across western NV and northeast CA, but keep
similar thunderstorm chances in the eastern Sierra. Some of the
more recent guidance is limiting the northward progression of this
trough, which would keep much of the region in the risk area for
more storms Monday (and some showers/embedded thunder possibly
lingering through Sunday and Monday nights). While similar
thunderstorm impacts as today/Saturday are anticipated, the
probability of more organized and stronger cells does edge upward,
especially with storms that spread across lower elevations with
higher outflow gust potential.

For the remainder of next week, thunderstorm chances may linger
through Tuesday afternoon, especially for for northeast CA and
northwest NV. Then the pattern trends drier for the remainder of
next week, although a few ensemble members don`t fully remove the
shower threat mainly near the OR border. With this drier pattern
will be increasing west wind gusts each afternoon, which could
produce elevated fire weather and lake recreation concerns.

Very warm daytime temperatures 10-15 degrees above average are
also contributing to this active weather pattern producing daily
rounds of convection. Highs this weekend through Tuesday will
climb into the mid 90s across most lower elevations with
widespread Moderate HeatRisk. A few warmer valleys in west central
NV have a small 20% chance of touching 100 degrees from Sunday-
Tuesday. Sierra communities can expect highs in the lower-mid 80s
during this same time frame. About 5-10 degrees of cooling is
then projected by late next week. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon
(mainly 21-03Z) with best chances of 20-30% favoring the Sierra
south of US-50 and 10-20% chance around the Tahoe Basin and far
western NV terminals KMMH will again have the best chances for
thunder within 10 miles, followed by KTVL and KMEV, with potential
decreasing farther north. For Saturday and especially Sunday, the
thunder potential will increase for the Tahoe area and far
western NV terminals and continue at similar levels at KMMH.
Lightning, brief heavy downpours with MVFR CIGS/VIS, outflow gusts
of 30-40 kt and possible small hail are the main threats. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$