449
FXUS65 KREV 170758
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1258 AM PDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A weekend storm will impact the Sierra and western Nevada today,
  bringing cooler conditions, gusty winds, light rain, isolated
  thunderstorms, and mountain snow showers.

* Gusty W-NW afternoon winds are expected today and Sunday.

* Warmer and drier conditions return next week for the 7-10 day
  outlook.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A quick moving low pressure system will impact our area starting
early this morning, continuing through Sunday afternoon. The main
threats today include showers and isolated thunderstorms, as well
as gusty NW winds. Today will also be the coolest day of the week
with highs in the 50s and 60s across much of the area. The
greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms will be in NE CA and
along the OR border, with a 70-90% chance for showers and 25-30%
chance for lightning. Chances gradually decrease as you progress
southward across the area, with a 40-60% chance for showers in W
NV (10-15% chance lightning). Shower and thunderstorm chances
along the Sierra will be 10-20%. Snow levels will be above 8000 ft
with little to no snow accumulations expected. Wind gusts out of
the W and NW today will range between 30 and 40 mph for W NV with
up to 80 mph along the Sierra crest.

Winds stay elevated Sunday while temperatures remain cool, albeit
a bit warmer than today. Strong wind gusts will be wider in areal
coverage, with gusts up to 40 mph across W NV. Wind gusts along
the Sierra will be a bit lower than today, with gusts up to 60
mph. The low pressure quickly departs the area by Sunday
afternoon, allowing for clearing skies and temperatures in the 60s
for the majority of the area.

A warming trend begins Monday, with zonal flow returning by
midweek. Temperatures shoot back up above normal with a 90% chance
the afternoon high on Tuesday will exceed 80 degrees in Reno. By
the end of the week, there will be Minor HeatRisk across much of
Nevada. Dry conditions will also accompany these warm
temperatures.

-Giralte

&&

.AVIATION...

There`s a 5-15% chance for showers and thunderstorms for all
terminals this afternoon. With snow levels above 8000 ft, snowfall
for KTRK/KTVL/KMMH is unlikely. However, light rain showers may
populate between 17/14Z-16Z and again between 17/23Z-18/04Z,
primarily for all terminals, except KMMH. Precipitation for KMMH
will likely be between 17/16Z-20Z.

There is an increased trend for strong gusty winds, LLWS, and
mountain turbulence concerns starting early this morning and
continuing into Monday morning. Wind gusts will range between
25-35 kts for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV and up to 40 kts for KTRK/KTVL/KMMH.

-Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon NVZ002.

 Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday NVZ004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this
  afternoon CAZ072.


&&

$$