Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
193 FXUS65 KREV 160712 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1212 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A warming and drying trend will continue through early next week. * A 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday for Southern Lyon, Mineral, and southeastern Churchill Counties. * Warming to near normal for next week, with afternoon westerly breezes. Showers or thunderstorms may return late next week. && .DISCUSSION... The region is transitioning to a drier and warmer pattern as upper- level ridging begins to build over the Western U.S. The 00Z KREV sounding indicated a significant drying trend compared to previous days, with a PWAT of 0.45". While lapse rates remain steep (700-500mb at 7.9 C/km), the lack of moisture will severely limit convective development. Therefore, a 10-20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain confined to the far southern and eastern portions of the CWA, specifically Southern Lyon, Mineral, and southeastern Churchill Counties, through Sunday afternoon and evening. Afternoon westerly breezes will become more noticeable on Monday. A shortwave traversing the Pac NW will enhance these winds. NBM guidance indicates peak gusts around 20 mph for many valley locations, but gusts could exceed 30 mph in far northeastern California and northwestern Nevada, closer to the Oregon border. These winds may create isolated elevated fire weather conditions across the aforementioned areas Monday afternoon. This upcoming week, the synoptic pattern will be dominated by a strong upper-level ridge building westward across the Four Corners region and into the Western U.S. Lower elevation valleys can expect highs in the low to mid 90s, potentially reaching upper 90s in the Western Nevada Basin and Range by mid-week. Sierra locations will generally see highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dry conditions are expected to persist through at least Thursday. The WPC Extended Forecast Discussion indicates that while monsoonal moisture may stream north across the Intermountain West by Friday, its impact on the Sierra and western NV is expected to be limited initially. However, by late next week (Friday / Saturday), low-end chances (10-20%) for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms may return, primarily to the eastern portions of the CWA, as some moisture potentially sneaks in under the western flank of the ridge. -Justin && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions this weekend, outside of low end (10- 20%) chances for showers or thunderstorms across Southern Lyon, Mineral, and southeastern Churchill Counties from approximately 21z-02z Sunday afternoon. Winds will be westerly with peak gusts at terminal sites reaching 10-20 kts in the afternoon, in absence of any thunderstorm outflow winds. An uptick in WSW winds should be expected Monday afternoon and evening, with gusts reaching 15-25 kts. -Dawn/Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$