Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
506 FXUS65 KREV 151913 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1213 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Afternoon winds peak Wednesday, bringing localized concerns for fire weather, aviation, and recreation. * 10-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday for northern Washoe and Lassen counties. * Warm and dry conditions Friday and through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite imagery shows a low pressure system cycling off the coast of Washington. That low is projected to dig southward into northern California before pushing northeast by late Thursday. We can expect this low to impact the area as early as Wednesday, bringing increased afternoon breezes primarily south of I-80. Due to the placement of the low, winds will be southerly, which differs from our typical west/southwest winds. Expect afternoon gusts of 30-35 mph, with 50-55 mph gusts along the ridgetops late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. These stronger winds, coupled with minimum humidity values in the teens and single digits will combine to create elevated fire weather conditions in the lower elevations of Mono and Mineral counties Wednesday afternoon. The aforementioned low pressure will also bring isolated shower chances Wednesday and Thursday. Model guidance shows a 10-15% chance of showers along far northern Lassen county. PWAT values from this system range from 0.3-0.6" so there might not be enough moisture for any rain to reach the ground. Storm chances increase Thursday (20-35%) for much of Lassen county and portions of northern Washoe county north of Pyramid Lake. There`s also a low chance for early morning convection in the same areas Thursday morning, however confidence on this materializing remains low. Temperatures will cool to the upper 70s for valleys and upper 60s for Sierra communities Thursday in the wake of the low pressure. A warming trend will then ensue, with afternoon highs back in the mid 80s for lower valleys and upper 70s for Sierra communities around the Tahoe Basin this weekend. Dry conditions will continue through at least early next week. -Giralte && .AVIATION... VFR conditions areawide today, with winds increasing to 20-25 kts this afternoon for all Sierra and Sierra Front terminals. Winds peak Wednesday, gusting up to 40 kts, and will introduce periods of LLWS along and east of the Sierra crest. -Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$