801
FXUS65 KREV 191937
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1237 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Gusty east to northeast winds along the Sierra crest will taper
  through the afternoon.

* Dry conditions with a warming trend expected areawide this weekend
  into mid-next week.

* Unsettled weather returns late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Observations indicate gusty east-northeast winds are still ongoing
along exposed Sierra ridges at time of writing, with strongest gusts
upwards of 60-90 mph. However, an overall downward trend in ridgetop
winds is expected through the remainder of the day, eventually
becoming light overnight. Otherwise, winds will remain light out of
the east-northeast with brisk afternoon breezes for all other
locations today.

It was another cold one out there across the Sierra and western
Nevada this morning, with most lows ranging between 20-30 degrees.
We will begin to thaw out the remainder of this weekend, as a
gradual warming trend is expected to prevail through mid-next week.
We`ll see seasonable highs return by Sunday, with the height of our
warming trend on Wednesday yielding highs in the mid-upper 70s for
western Nevada valleys and high 60s-low 70s for Sierra valleys. Dry
conditions with generally light winds will accompany this warming
trend as a ridging pattern generally dominates the pattern over our
region. The only exception is the potential for increased
southwesterly breezes on Monday as a deepening Eastern Pacific
trough orients an upper-level jet over northern portions California
and Nevada.

Ensembles are hinting at the potential for another fall storm
impacting the region late next week. The aforementioned Eastern
Pacific trough is expected to eject eastward into the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, leading to increasing southwesterly winds
across the region Thursday afternoon into Friday. Blended guidance
is still holding steady with a 25-45% chance for gusts greater than
30 mph on Thursday across the region. There still remains good
amount of uncertainty in the timing of this system in regards to
precipitation, but chances for showers begin to increase late
Thursday and increase into the weekend. This storm will be cooler,
but to what extent still remains uncertain.

The progressive pattern looks to continue through next weekend, with
signals for unsettled to weather to continue through the end of
October. Whitlam

&&

.AVIATION...

Mountain wave turbulence remains the largest concern through this
afternoon. FL100 winds will continue to decrease through the
remainder of the day, but will remain above 30 kts out of the E-NE
through around 00z.

Otherwise, good flying conditions expected today as skies remain
clear with light E-NE surface breezes for all regional terminals.
Whitlam

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$