Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
908 FXUS65 KREV 160748 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1248 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty winds and minor impacts to fire, recreation, and air and ground travel expected today into Thursday. * Chances of rain and isolated thunderstorms increase this afternoon near the Oregon border, and linger through Thursday. * Dry and warmer weather is favored Friday into the weekend. Rain, thunderstorms, and breezy winds may return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... An upper low passage will deliver gusty winds, and a low chance of rain and thunderstorms today into Thursday. S/SW gusts increase to 25-35 mph this afternoon from the Tahoe-Reno area south to Mono and Mineral counties. Locally stronger gusts of 40-45 mph remain possible in wind prone areas such as I-580 near Washoe Lake and US-395 between Mono Lake and Mammoth. As such, plan on gusty crosswinds and more difficult driving conditions along US-395 between Reno and Mammoth, especially along those windier stretches. Gusty winds will also make for rougher lake waters and a few hours of localized near-critical fire weather conditions from the Sierra Front into Mono and Mineral counties today. Meanwhile, wind gusts along the Sierra crest will increase from 45-50 mph in the afternoon to near 60 mph overnight into Thursday morning. Expect bumpy flights over the Sierra and a chilly Thursday morning for higher Sierra elevations. Winds remain breezy Thursday, but more typically so with gusts of 20-30 mph in the afternoon. Farther north, rain chances increase to 10-20% this afternoon across portions of Lassen County into the Surprise Valley and far N Washoe County. Weak instability and moisture will also support a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few of the more aggressive solutions depict a narrow band of rain with possibly embedded lightning developing from Lassen County into northern Washoe County early Thursday morning. However, this seems more like an outlier scenario with only a 10-15% chance of materializing. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase to 20-30% Thursday afternoon, but remain confined near the Oregon border. After a couple days of cooler than normal weather, a warming trend will bring temperatures back to seasonal averages by the weekend with mid-70s to mid-80s daytime highs. The only other notable item is a dry frontal passage Friday that encourages breezy E-NE winds along and west of the Sierra crest Friday night into Saturday morning. Otherwise, this weekend is trending towards being a warm and dry one. Ensembles continue to hint at increasing winds and rain chances early next week, particularly for areas south of Tahoe/Reno. -Salas && .AVIATION... Surface winds increase this afternoon for all terminals, with initial S-SW gusts reaching 20-25 kts at KTRK-KTVL and 25-30 kts at KRNO-KCXP-KMEV. Winds are expected to shift to westerly at KRNO- KCXP-KMEV between 00-03Z this evening. Stronger SW gusts of 30-35 kts are favored at KMMH this afternoon. S/SW FL100 winds increase to 35 kts after 03Z, increasing LLWS and mountain wave turbulence concerns in the Sierra. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$