Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
764 FXUS65 KREV 170748 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1248 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and warm conditions will prevail through mid-week across the region. * Afternoon winds increase the fire risk Monday for northeast CA and northwest NV. * Increased chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms return this upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... The synoptic pattern features an upper-level ridge building over the Desert Southwest, maintaining a dry southwest flow aloft across the region. This will lead to generally clear to partly cloudy skies and a warming trend through mid-week. This week, highs are expected in the low-mid 90s for the lower valleys and mid 80s for the Sierra. Afternoon winds will also increase this afternoon, generally from the southwest, with gusts up to 15-20 mph, particularly across northeast California and western Nevada where gusts to around 30 mph are possible. This weekend we`re monitoring the potential gradual eastward shift of the upper-level ridge, allowing a Pacific trough to approach the West Coast by late week. NBM guidance shows an increase in monsoonal moisture streaming northward under the influence of the shifting ridge and approaching Pacific trough. This will lead to an increase in isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances, particularly for the eastern Sierra, with PoPs generally ranging from 10-30% for Friday through Sunday. Afternoon winds are also expected to increase again during this period as the upper-level system draws closer to the West Coast. Temperatures will see a slight cooling trend over the weekend, with highs returning to the upper 80s to low 90s for the valleys and upper 70s to low 80s for the Sierra. Overall, confidence in the general pattern of increasing moisture and convection late week is moderate, with some model divergence in the exact timing and amplitude of the Pacific trough. -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue today and throughout this week. Increased westerly winds are expected across northeast CA and far northwest NV this afternoon with gusts up to 25kt. Otherwise, high pressure will keep the region warm and dry this week. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$