Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
986 FXUS65 KREV 050935 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 235 AM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty winds will bring elevated fire concerns, and impacts to holiday travel and recreation Sunday afternoon. * A cold front will increase shower and thunderstorm chances near the Oregon border on Sunday. * Mild temperatures and breezy afternoons prevail next week with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances around midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Pacific Northwest troughing will make for a cooler than normal Labor Day weekend with daytime highs in the 60s and 70s through Monday. SW/W wind gusts increase to 30-40 mph Sunday afternoon in response to an approaching cold front, posing impacts to holiday travel and recreation (i.e., bumpy flights, choppy lake waters). These winds also elevate fire concerns from Mono County into S.Lyon and Mineral Counties where daytime humidity is low (more details in the fire weather section below). The aforementioned cold front will increase shower chances to 30-60% for areas north of a Susanville-Gerlach line on Sunday, with a low 10-30% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Labor Day is favored to be dry with weaker (albeit still breezy) winds in the afternoon. A slow warming trend will bring temperatures closer to the seasonal averages after Monday, with daytime highs staying in the 70s and 80s for much of the week. Southerly flow aloft will draw deep moisture northward into the region around midweek, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances between Tuesday and Thursday. The eastern Sierra from Tahoe southward is most favored for any rain and storms, but confidence remains low on exact timing/location details. -Salas && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail. Winds are expected to be weaker today, but S/SW gusts of 20-25 kts should arrive in the early afternoon before shifting to more W/SW in the late afternoon. Winds aloft and at the surface increase on Sunday, renewing LLWS and mountain wave turbulence potential for all main terminals. Gusty winds may also produce blowing dust and reduced visibilities at KHTH- KNFL-KLOL Sunday afternoon. -Salas && .FIRE WEATHER... SW/W gusts of 30-40 mph and RH reductions to 15% or less will support 2-5 hours of critical conditions across valleys and midslope areas of Mono, S. Lyon, and Mineral counties Sunday afternoon. Wind shift to a more westerly direction following a dry frontal passage in the late afternoon and early evening. Nighttime recoveries will be moderate to good (up to 50-70%) Sunday night into Monday, with the exception of the Chalfant Valley where RH struggles to 40%. Farther north, higher humidity will mitigate fire concerns somewhat, but similar wind gusts will at least elevate fire concerns from the northern Sierra Front into the west-central Nevada Sunday afternoon. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$