Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
627 FXUS65 KREV 011916 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1216 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures persist across the region with widespread minor to locally moderate HeatRisk today. * Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon into evening, primarily east of the Tahoe Basin and far western NV. * A gradual warming trend begins Saturday and continues through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... So far this afternoon we`re seeing a few cumulus buildups from Mono County up through Lassen and northern Washoe counties. Surface heating is currently priming the atmosphere for showers and thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon over far western Nevada and northeastern California. More storms are expected Wednesday and Thursday as well, with Friday being our driest and coolest day of the week. The storms this afternoon will have a decent amount of upper level support from a broad area of divergence overhead due to a low centered off the coast of SoCal. Convective initiation will occur around 1 PM this afternoon and go through 8 PM. Chances range between 15-20% in western NV and 25-35% in northeastern CA. Today is a classic example where we`ll see those inverted-V profiles which means lots of dry air at the surface and potential for strong outflow winds. DCAPE this afternoon for the Sierra Front and northeastern CA will be around 1400-1700 J/kg, which indicates thunderstorms could produce gusts up to 55 mph. The main impacts from these thunderstorms today through Thursday include gusty outflow winds, hail less than 0.50" in diameter, and occasional lightning. Much of the same on Wednesday except just a touch less instability and increased storm coverage spreading east into Mono, Lyon, and Pershing counties. The storms on Thursday will be more concentrated to Lassen and far northern Washoe county, at a 20-30% chance. Breezy zephyr winds are expected Thursday and Friday with gusts up to 25-30 mph. This will lead to possible recreation concerns on local lakes. See the Fire Weather section below for more details on fire weather impacts. The Fourth of July into early next week we start to dry out and temperatures start to rebound back into the mid 90`s by Sunday. Friday`s high temps get into the mid 80`s in western NV and 70`s in the Sierra which is 5-10 degrees below average for this time of year. -Justin && .AVIATION... There`s a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms near KMEV/KCXP/KRNO and a 10-15% near KTRK/KTVL/KMMH this afternoon between 20Z-03Z. Primary impacts from thunderstorms include gusty/erratic winds, small hail <0.50", and occasional lightning. Typical zephyr breeze from the west today with gusts 15-20 kt at all area terminals in the afternoon. However, near thunderstorms there is a chance the outflows could produce gusts up to 50 kt. -Justin && .FIRE WEATHER... * Isolated hybrid storms today will produce lightning and strong, erratic outflow winds with gusts of 50+ mph. The best chances (20-40%) will be in Lassen, the Surprise Valley, and northern Washoe County. The Tahoe Basin generally north of Mono County as well as the Reno-Carson-Minden area will have around 15-25% chance for showers and storms, with 5-10% chances elsewhere. * Shower and storm chances expand across much of the region on Wednesday. Once again, storms may produce lightning and strong, erratic outflow winds with gusts of 50+ mph. Locally heavy rainfall is possible inside storm cores. * Brief 1-3 hour periods of localized critical conditions, mostly for western NV and inner-basin, by Thursday as breezy and dry conditions return. These dry conditions persist into the holiday weekend. -McKellar/Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$