540
FXUS65 KREV 120942
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
242 AM PDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Impactful Sierra winter storm today into Thursday. Expect
  periods of heavy mountain snow with significant travel
  disruptions along local mountain passes.

* Strong and gusty winds are expected regionwide today, resulting
  in aviation and travel impacts.

* Periods of Sierra snow showers continue on Friday followed by
  another potent winter storm late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM TODAY & THURSDAY:

* A much anticipated winter storm will start to impact the region
  today, bringing rounds of heavy snow to the eastern slopes of
  the Sierra and strong winds in western NV. This will bring major
  disruptions to travel in the Sierra today into Thursday. In
  additional, strong winds throughout western NV will impact
  aviation operations and travel impacts for high profile
  vehicles.

* Changes: Overall there are not many changes to the overnight
  forecast package. Timing for the initial round of snow as well
  as the heavier snow expected later today is still on track. Snow
  levels have stayed similar to prior guidance, starting around
  5,500-6,000` before falling below pass level later this
  afternoon. Snowfall rates are still forecasted to be between
  2-4"/hr with the heavier snowfall later today. For additional
  details into the Winter Storm Warnings for the Sierra, please
  visit www.weather.gov/rev/winter.

* Snow: There are no significant changes forecasted for snowfall
  totals during this event. Persistent, widespread heavy snowfall
  this afternoon into early Thursday morning will give way to
  scattered snow showers throughout the Sierra tomorrow.
  Instability increases on Thursday as the cold, upper level
  trough moves overhead. The HREF shows MUCAPES in the eastern
  Sierra as well as Central Valley in California increasing to
  200-400 J/kg, with very steep 700-500mb lapse rates over 8C/km.
  Thus, any stronger cells that form in the Central Valley and
  push into the Sierra could produce locally heavy snowfall rates
  of 1-2"/hr. As for western NV, most of today will be shadowed
  until late afternoon into Thursday morning. Precipitation starts
  as rain, then transitions to snow later tonight as cold air
  filters into the region. Not expecting to see much in the way
  of snow accumulation, with only a dusting up to 4" above 5,500`.
  Below 5,500` including the Reno, Carson, Minden, and Fallon,
  there`s an 80-95% chance of less than 1" throughout this whole
  storm. Mountainous communities like Virginia City and its
  Highlands will see 2-4".

* Wind: Lastly, winds for western NV are still on track to be very
  strong starting later this morning through the evening. This
  will cause impacts to travel as well as aviation operations.
  Peak wind gusts today still are between 2-5pm, with a 60-70%
  chance of exceeding 50 mph. Wind prone areas along US-395 in
  western NV and northeast CA, as well as US-95 could see gusts up
  to 65+ mph. The southerly direction along with high sustained
  speeds of 20-30 mph will help funnel winds through south-north
  orientated terrain. Also, areas of blowing dust could reduce
  visibility downwind of desert sinks/playas. For more details
  for the Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings, please visit
  www.weather.gov/rev.

FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK:

* Additional precipitation moves into the Sierra Friday morning
  through Saturday morning. Between 1-3" of snow is possible for
  all eastern Sierra communities, with 4-8" of additional snowfall
  along the crests. Last, there is a 50-60% chance for light
  snowfall in western NV Friday morning, but with minimal
  accumulations.

* We get a quick break in the action on Saturday into most of
  Sunday. But by late Sunday through Monday, the next storm system
  is expected to produce another round of moderate to heavy
  snowfall in the Sierra and strong gusty winds in western NV.

-McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

* For Sierra Terminals: Widespread IFR/LIFR in precipitation and
  mountain obscurations starting today into Thursday. Light snow
  showers this morning with snowfall rates of 1"/hr. It could be
  mixed in with rain at KTVL/KTRK in the morning. Snow rates then
  increase this afternoon up to 2-4"/hr through early Thursday
  morning. For winds, sustained south winds of 15-25kts with gusts
  upwards of 35-45kts are possible starting around 18z through
  03z.

* For western NV Terminals: Main issue for today will be strong
  south winds sustained 20-30kts with gusts of 35-45kts from
  around 16-18z through 03z. Then by this afternoon through the
  early morning on Thursday, expect periods of MVFR/IFR in
  precipitation and mountain obscurations.

* Widespread LLWS, turbulence, and mountain wave activity is
  expected throughout the eastern Sierra and western NV through
  around 12-15z Thursday as FL100 winds start to increase to
  50-60kts.

-McKellar

&&

.AVALANCHE...

Impacts from heavy snow and gusty winds expected across all
avalanche center terrain starting Wednesday and continuing through
Thursday.

* Changes: There is a slight 10-20% chance for lightning today as
  well as on Thursday. We`ll have persistent heavy snowfall today
  followed by more scattered, possibly convective snow showers on
  Thursday.

* SWE, SLR, and Snow Levels: 1-3" SWE expected for all avalanche
  centers (up to 3.5" in the Tahoe Basin) today through Thursday.
  SLRs at the storm`s onset will be between 10-12:1 and then rise
  to 15-16:1 by 11pm tonight. Snow levels will initially start
  around 6000 ft before dropping below 4500 ft by 11pm tonight
  and staying there through the remainder of the system.

* Snowfall totals and rates: 1-3 feet possible (with up to 4 feet
  along the highest peaks in the Tahoe Basin) with the most
  intense period between 5pm and 11pm. The strongest snowfall
  rates will coincide with that peak intensity period with rates
  between 2-4"/hr.

* Ridge top gusts: Strongest south to southwest wind gusts will
  occur Wednesday afternoon until around sunset where gusts will
  be as high as 100 mph.

-McKellar/Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
     NVZ003>005.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday NVZ002.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ001.

CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
     CAZ070.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday CAZ071-072.

     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM PDT
     Thursday CAZ073.

&&

$$