Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
659 FXUS65 KREV 261718 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1018 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Generally dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the week with elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns today. * Temperatures around seasonal averages, then gradually rise to above average this weekend. * Early next week, rain and storm chances return, while above average temperatures persist for early July. && .DISCUSSION... Looking at ensemble guidance, both the EC and GFS are depicting a trough slung across Baja California, while a weak shortwave provides a glancing blow to our north. This setup will determine our weather in the days to come. First, the shortwave is in position to boost our afternoon zephyr winds, with gusts in western Nevada approaching 30 mph this afternoon. Gusts along Sierra ridges could reach 35 mph. This pattern will keep us mostly dry, although NAM guidance is suggesting an isolated shower could appear over the Sierra in Mono County, less than a 5% chance for this outcome. With dry air in place over many days, relative humidity will remain low, around 5- 15% across much of western Nevada. This is the area of focus for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions for 3-6 hours today. Relative humidity over the Sierra will range 10-25%, so less concern over these areas. Friday through Sunday a gradual and steady warmup takes hold as high pressure dominates the region. Temperatures over western Nevada valleys could approach 100 degrees by Sunday, with Sierra valleys well into the upper 80s to low 90s. Monday looks just as hot. Due to this building heat, a Moderate HeatRisk is expected for Sunday and Monday. Speaking of Sunday and Monday, showers begin to arrive to NE CA and far NW NV, along the OR border. It isn`t until Tuesday that the aforementioned trough over Baja California finally makes it`s way into our forecast notes. There are several model solutions in disagreement as to how this will play out over our region, but gusty winds and afternoon showers seem to be a persistent theme across most ensemble guidance. Details on the `where` and `when` of the system will emerge in the coming days. HRICH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail for all terminals today, with westerly afternoon gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV, most likely between 26/21Z-27/03Z. KMMH has a less than 5% chance for isolated showers today. If a shower does form, gusty and erratic winds may materialize in the vicinity. Best chances will be between 26/21Z-27/03Z. -HRICH/Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$