Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
901 FXUS65 KREV 020832 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 132 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will form again this afternoon into evening across much of the region. * Temperatures will cool below seasonal averages for the holiday weekend, with diminishing precipitation chances. * A gradual warming trend begins Saturday and continues through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... * After an active weather day on Tuesday, we`ll do it all over again today with a 15-35% chance of showers and thunderstorms generally between the hours of 1-8 PM. With the upper low situated over the southern Sierra, there is still decent upper divergent flow aloft which will help aid storm development. The airmass remains unstable today, with the environment supportive of strong outflow gusts upwards of 50-60 mph and some small hail. These storms will have greater areal coverage today, especially south into Mono, Lyon, and Pershing counties. PWATs have steadily increased over the last few days, and storms will also be capable of locally heavy rainfall within main cores. We`ll start our cooling trend today, with seasonal temperatures and typical afternoon Zephyr winds. * An upper level trough passes through the area on Thursday and Friday, leading to an increase in southwest winds across the area. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible in western NV, eastern Lassen County, and for most eastern Sierra communities while gusts up to 35-40 mph are possible on the ridges. This will lead to recreation concerns on all local lakes, especially on Thursday. See the Fire Weather section below for more details on fire weather impacts due to this trough. There remains and 20-30% chance for showers and storms in Lassen, northern Washoe, and possibly Churchill counties Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to trend cooler into the weekend, and by the 4th temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below average. * By the weekend, model ensembles show a dry, southwest flow over the region as high pressure builds over the inter-mountain west. This will translate into the usual breezy afternoons, seasonal temperatures, and dryer conditions to start next week. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * There`s a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms from 20z-03z for all eastern Sierra, northeast CA, and western NV terminals. Primary impacts from thunderstorms include gusty/erratic winds, small hail <0.50", and occasional lightning. * Typical zephyr breeze from the west today with gusts 15-20 kt at all area terminals in the afternoon. However, thunderstorms could produce gusts up to 50 kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. -McKellar && .FIRE WEATHER... * Shower and storm chances (15-35%) expand across much of the region today. Once again, storms may produce abundant lightning and strong, erratic outflow winds upwards of 50+ mph. Locally heavy rainfall is possible inside storm cores, and small hail. * For Thursday, there is a 1-3 hour period of critical fire weather conditions for the Sierra Front as well as inner-basin and ranges due to a combination of gusts of 25-30 mph with humidities in low to mid teens. This continues on Friday, but with much less coverage. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$